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Thousands of Java Jobs Available!

Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Roseanne Zhang:
[QB]
It is a very bad job market for IT professionals, and it is much worse than 1991-1992 recession in IT job market point of view.
...
Why? It is because the ~10 years extremely hot booming IT market created/imported (from other job market or from other countries) more programmers (qualified or not) than demand. IT job market will take longer time to recover than the general job market IMHO.

With all due respect Roseanne, based on what?!?! It's worse job market b/c you say there supply vs demand is worse then it was 10 years ago? I feel it's otherwise. There was a big increase in IT jobs in the last 10 years. Once you discount H1B visas, whcih many companies today aren't hiring, I think the demand increase outgrew the supply increase. Of course, we're both just waving our hands unless either of us can provide actual numbers and not mere speculation.
--Mark
John Lee
Ranch Hand

Joined: Aug 05, 2001
Posts: 2545
Hi Mark:
After reading some of the posts, I have a question for you. What areas in software development field you think there is more opportunity for start-up?
Thanks,
[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Don Liu ]
Marilyn de Queiroz
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Joined: Jul 22, 2000
Posts: 9044
    
  10
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:
I'm simply arguing that the current ratio is "normal" and previous ratio were "high" (as opposed to most people lately who seemed to take the last few years as "normal" or "good" and today as "bad").

Market correction theory. Probably valid. Job markets fluctuate in all fields.


JavaBeginnersFaq
"Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, and today is a gift; that's why they call it the present." Eleanor Roosevelt
Roseanne Zhang
Ranch Hand

Joined: Nov 14, 2000
Posts: 1953
Mark
I do not have numbers to support my point, and don't have time to do that research either. If you or anyone else think what I said is just stupid/ridiculous or totally non-sense, I don't care... Actually, I want to be proved that way.
However, I made two predictions in April last year when our company then shut down. Both based on the Newton's Third Law.
The first one is I posted above.
The other one is: Dallas area IT market will take longer time to recover than nation wide, since Dallas area enjoyed ~10 years of the best IT markets (top 1-3) in the US. Many best IT professionals moved to Dallas, and settled down here. The inertia to not move out is very high. There are some other reasons about Dallas area such as the telecom industry's boom and fall.
I wish I would be proved wrong, wrong, wrong!!!
I'm afraid I will be proved right.
A sad Roseanne
[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Roseanne Zhang ]
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Roseanne Zhang:
Mark
I do not have numbers to support my point, and don't have time to do that research either. If you or anyone else think what I said is just stupid/ridiculous, I don't care... Actually, I want to be proved that way.
...
I wish I would be proved wrong, wrong, wrong!!!
I'm afraid I will be proved right.

Again, look at unemployment rates here and here.
Now let's consider CA, since I was able to find data on it. CA, of course, has a large number of high tech workers, so would likely be more effected then, say Iowa (of course, I haven't proven this, so I could be wrong in this assumption). The unemployment statistics given here suggest it's still not as bad as in the early 1990's.
Damn, I hate it when facts get in the way of otherwise perfectly good complaining.
--Mark (who had the 10 minutes to do the research)
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
A digression...
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
In case it hasn't been clear. I was getting a little fed up with people simply lamenting that because the can't find a job, the economy must be horrid. While I conceed that it's not a great economy, I think chicken little (read: The Media) has been crying the sky is falling in order to sell papers, and has suckered everyone into believing it.
Most of us are scientists and engineers. We wre trained to argue with facts and numbers. We proved out points with data. Software, unfortunately, as an industry, rarely uses data. Our processes, our views, our values, our organizations, are all based on "common sense," which, when finally studied often turns out to be wrong (e.g. office layout, quality assurance efforts, scheduling). So here, too, I decided to find some hard data. It's not ideal, the data is rough, but I follow the principle of Gib's Law (Peopleware, page 59):

Anything you need to quantify can be measured in some way that is superior to not measuring at all.

So I have provided the best data I could find. I highly encourage others to go out, and do their own research (take 10 minutes and use some search engines, that's all I do). I challenge you to disprove by points by using better data.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Mark Herschberg ]
Roseanne Zhang
Ranch Hand

Joined: Nov 14, 2000
Posts: 1953
More accurately, my logic is from Lao Tze (604 BC - 521 BC) which can be kind of explained by Newton (1643-1727)'s Third Law.
Wu Ji Bi Fan
A translation from a dictionary:
Things will develop in the opposite direction when they become extreme.
[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Roseanne Zhang ]
Jim Baiter
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jan 05, 2001
Posts: 532
I think this is a decent site for info on the overall IT market and since it is part of the ACM, I consider it trustworthy.
http://campus.acm.org/crc/cri/categorylist-cri24-crc.cfm?cat_id=80&CFID=2284787&CFTOKEN=88391418
Rob Ross
Bartender

Joined: Jan 07, 2002
Posts: 2205
Good site Jim. It gives some encouraging news of times to come. Maybe I have selfish reasons but I find this statistic comforting:

About 270,000 workers--9.1% of the IT workforce--vanished in the past year, and no one's sure where they all went, or why. The chief suspects appear to be layoff-spurred career changes, post-Sept. 11 angst, and disillusionment following the dot bomb.

The whole article is here http://www.informationweek.com/story/IWK20020215S0049

Personally, I cannot imagine a scenario in which I am no longer employed as a software engineer. I have been writing computer software since I was 10. I have not wanted to be anything other than a software developer since I was 16.
I always suspected that the dot-com era brought in scores of people to IT that weren't cut out for it. Like it's been mentioned before, sure you can learn HTML, but that by itself doesn't make you a programmer. When the music stops and you have to change seats, and you no longer have a browser to code to, you don't have any backup skills to carry you over- so you go back to school and become a teacher, or a firefighter, or something else.
And I say this is good for the true IT professionals.
[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Rob Ross ]
[ April 21, 2002: Message edited by: Rob Ross ]

Rob
SCJP 1.4
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Jim Baiter:
I think this is a decent site for info on the overall IT market and since it is part of the ACM, I consider it trustworthy.
http://campus.acm.org/crc/cri/categorylist-cri24-crc.cfm?cat_id=80&CFID=2284787&CFTOKEN=88391418

Woo-hoo!!! Go Jim!!!
Finally, some hard data! Now I still happen to disagree with it, for reasons I go into below, but I respect the points it tries to make.
The article Vanishing Act points to unemployment at 6%. However, this contrasts with the data provided with Industry Downturn Hasn't Killed Tech's Big Appetite for Top Talent

The Information Technology Assn. of America estimates U.S. firms needed more than 900,000 additional tech workers this year--and were able to hire only 475,000.

To me it suggests that many underqualified people entered the field and are inflating the unemployment rate. I suspect the shakeout will continue to turn these people back to their original fields, as suggested in the Vanishing Act article.
Also, although IT unemployment is even hirer then the early 90's, because the overall unemployment rate isn't as high, it suggests sharper turnaround time. Remember that IT is fundamentally a support role. Our products and services are purchased by companies in other industries. As they pick up, so will their demand for our work.
--Mark
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:

To me it suggests that many underqualified people entered the field and are inflating the unemployment rate. I suspect the shakeout will continue to turn these people back to their original fields...

Well Mark, you are employed MIT grad with contacts. With all due respect, there is a good book "The Bell Curve" by Herrnstein and Murray which explains in detail about how your opinion is relevant to 98% of the people on this board. Nothing personal, my IQ is in 99th persentile too, but I am unemployed.
1. I've worked for 2 consulting firms which in last half a year went almost to non-existence, and they hired only experienced pros and had a solid business plan. I also happen to know another 3-4 consulting firms (that have been there for years) which fired a bunch and are on the verge of bankruptcy. The work stream's dried out. I can give you company names if you wish.
2. I know a number of people who work for the company which is Eastern Technology Council preferred provider of human capital (basically, it's a preferred HR firm for companies who want to get IT talent in North-East US). They recently told me that they DON'T DO ANY IT ENGAGEMENTS anymore because no one hires. Again, I can give you company name.
3. I went to local job fair a few weeks ago. Thousands of applicants, almost no positions. One of the big insurance companies had advertised maybe 20 positions (candidate lines where outrageous). I called my contact INSIDE the company so that (s)he can go on their intranet and check it out. There were NO JOB POSTINGS.
This goes on. I think you can safely say that "I suspect the shakeout will continue to turn ALL PEOPLE back to OTHER fields", and then in a year or so there will be big shortage of IT talent again, which will greatly benefit those lucky few who manage to get/hold a job in a shakeout.
[ April 23, 2002: Message edited by: Shura Balaganov ]

Any posted remarks that may or may not seem offensive, intrusive or politically incorrect are not truly so.
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Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
Well Mark, you are employed MIT grad with contacts. With all due respect, there is a good book "The Bell Curve" by Herrnstein and Murray which explains in detail about how your opinion is relevant to 98% of the people on this board. Nothing personal, my IQ is in 99th persentile too, but I am unemployed.

Frankly, I think this is a cop out. Yes I went to MIT. Studies have shown (and unfortunately I deleted the link I had to one just the other day) that there is low correlation between college and success, when normalized for intelligence. In other words, people tend to be successful or not, based on who they are. You do find more of these successful people at the top schools, but it's not the school that makes them that way, i.e. the belief that the school matters reverses the causality.
I'm familiar with the Bell Curve, but I'm not following your point.
(BTW, I'm not employed right now. I quit my job last November to write book. Before I quit, I took an assement of the job market--I had never written a book before, and in case it didn't work out, I wanted to see what type of safty net existed. I choose to jump. So for the record, I do put my money where my mouth is, almost literally :-)
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
1. I've worked for 2 consulting firms which in last half a year went almost to non-existence, and they hired only experienced pros and had a solid business plan. I also happen to know another 3-4 consulting firms (that have been there for years) which fired a bunch and are on the verge of bankruptcy. The work stream's dried out. I can give you company names if you wish.

As a big beliver in the free market, I would argue that either
1) Their business plans were not good. OR
2) Their execution of the plan was not good. OR
3) The experts weren't that great.
Proof? The thousands of companies which have stayed in business, including many of which have been profitable and have had their stock price increase over the last year. Guess what success can be achieved. I think blaming the market is an easy, and incorrect, way out. Heck, I've known small financial based IT consulting firms that go thought the meltdown in '87. It can be done.
--Mark
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
You don't honestly believe that a community college grad can be as successfull as the person from top tier school? Yes, there are people out there who succeed on enterpreneurial arena without a good degree, but business is a different animal from IT. Frankly I doublt we can find more than a hand full of people who were programmers and then became successful in business.
We can normalize intelligence all we want, but have you ever tried to get a job at Microsoft or IBM (don't know about Sun, though I think it's the same pattern)? Fact is they hire highly intellectual people. I myself made a mistake of ignoring their offers about 2 years ago.
What I meant mentioning the Bell Curve is that from elite group it is very hard to relate to the real world. It is easy to point finger at people and say "well, tough luck, you are not qualified, go back to your cave". Some people can't even afford to be unemployed, unlike you and me.
Sometimes in IT you get told "come back anytime, you did a great job an we'll hire you in a heartbeat", then you know you are good and feel very secure. But when you really need it and go back, well, situation changed, no budget, we are not hiring now, can you wait a few months, that's what you get back these days. I got the same runaround from 4 companies. I guess you call that a good job market.
Well, what do you call this situation. You make TVs that get sold like pancakes. One day, when your factories work 24/7 and you crank thousands of TVs a day you get a report that they no longer sell. You start asking questions, doing research, maybe engineers are at fault, maybe competition is making better models? No, everything seems to be in order. Next report comes, and you haven't sold a single set. You stop production, lock the office and go home bankrupt. Which one of these 3 you gave would apply to it, bad business plan, bad execution, bad experts? Now, replace TV with intellectual capital, and you get the idea what happend to a bunch of IT consulting firms. Companies just weren't buying any services anymore.
My guess is it will take about 2-3 years before systems in place start falling apart and cost of maintenance will surpass cost of new development. Then market will bounce back. So, let's say, spring 2001 + 2 = spring 2003, that's when I expect some improvements.
Good luck with your book, Mark
Alex
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
You don't honestly believe that a community college grad can be as successfull as the person from top tier school?

Absolutely! Consider Bill Gates, he doesn't even have a degree! COnsider Dave Thomas, founder of Wendy's, he didn't even have a HS degree. Conder the former CEO of UPS, who started out on the bottom rung with package delivery and worked his way up to CEO (he did get a BS degree from some generic university along the way).
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
Yes, there are people out there who succeed on enterpreneurial arena without a good degree, but business is a different animal from IT. Frankly I doublt we can find more than a hand full of people who were programmers and then became successful in business.

I would agree with you on the latter point. The skill set needed to be a good programmer is different form that needed in business. Of course, IT has plenty of examples of people who shuned the traditional path, instead hacking away in the basements and garages, and becoming top notch software and hardwaye engineers.
Again I say it is the person, which makes the degree, not the degree which makes the person. Tonight I'll see if I can refind those studies.
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
Well, what do you call this situation. You make TVs that get sold like pancakes. One day, when your factories work 24/7 and you crank thousands of TVs a day you get a report that they no longer sell. You start asking questions,
doing research, maybe engineers are at fault, maybe competition is making better models? No, everything seems to be in order. Next report comes, and you haven't sold a single set. You stop production, lock the office and go home bankrupt. Which one of these 3 you gave would apply to it, bad business plan, bad execution, bad experts? Now, replace TV with intellectual capital, and you get the idea what happend to a bunch of IT consulting firms. Companies just weren't buying any services anymore.

I'd say someone *&%#ed up and didn't accurately predict the markspace. Sounds similar to the nuts who thought you could make a $100M business selling groceries online when the industry itself has some of the slimest profit margins in the economy. Bottom line, the companies weren't paying attention and got burned. The better companies had better predictive models, or paid more attention and planned ahead.
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
Good luck with your book, Mark

Thank you. :-)
--Mark
< cleaned up for too many blank lines - Tom >
[ April 23, 2002: Message edited by: Thomas Paul ]
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by Charlie Sturman:
Your last statement is a bomb shell.Would you please expand on it.
Sorry, I got so angry about this thread that I haven't been following it.
I started programming in Java in the summer of 1996. Since then I have worked exclusively in Java using servlets, JSPS, EJBs, JMS, etc. I have worked on some big name web sites. After 9/11 I was laid off from my job. I had actually started looking for a new job in July of last year because I suspected that my company was going to have lay-offs. In 9 months of looking for a job involving Java, I had exactly two interviews, In one case, the company decided not to fill the job position due to budget constraints. Last month I got a job using C# and .Net. The odds are that my future will remain with these technologies.


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Thomas Paul
mister krabs
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Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
The Information Technology Assn. of America estimates U.S. firms needed more than 900,000 additional tech workers this year--and were able to hire only 475,000.
So what exactly is ITAA? It happens to be a trade association of IT firms. In other words, the more H1B's that come into the country the better for the member firms of the ITAA. So how does the ITAA determine that there are so many unfilled jobs? They apparently pull them out of a hat since they don't actually have any scientific basis for those numbers. They claim to have done a "survey" but they don't reveal the scientific accuracy of this survey. In other words, it should be taken for what it is... a self-serving attempt to keep the government from pulling back on the H1B program.
John Fontana
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 28, 2002
Posts: 235
Mark -
I have to agree with Shura in particular that you're angle on this topic is based on a very elitist point of view. And even so, it is flawed. The statistics to prove it are right in the database at JavaRanch for this BB. These aren't people who used Dreamweaver and called themselves programmers...most of these people, including myself, taught themselves Java, have degrees, and earned SCJP's. We have seen the job market everyday for however long we've been looking, and we are all shouting the same results at you: It's very difficult. Never mind statistics...what could be better than tons of first-hand accounts of the situation?
A country submerged in a depression would still have a senior role for someone with your qualifications. Let's turn the table around: We MENSA-members know it's theoretically impossible to prove a negative, so prove a positive: How about some examples of people who looked for work recently and easily found a job?


www.websiteandsound.com
"If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always gotten."
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:

Consider Bill Gates, he doesn't even have a degree...

I have to reply to this misconseption about Billy-Bob Gates. The guy wasn't exactly a blue colour, here's a quote from this site:
http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/Gates.Mirick.html
"He (William Henry Gates III) was born into a family with a rich history in business, politics, and community service. His great-grandfather had been a state legislator and mayor, his grandfather was the vice president of a national bank, and his father was a prominent lawyer....In elementary school he quickly surpassed all of his peer's abilities in nearly all subjects, especially math and science. His parents recognized his intelligence and decided to enroll him in Lakeside, a private school known for its intense academic environment....In the fall of 1973, Bill Gates left home for Harvard University [Teamgates.com, 9/29/96]. He had no idea what he wanted to study, so he enrolled as prelaw....." If I am not mistaken, he droped out in 1975 when he and his other "rich boy" Lakeside friend Pall Allen formed Microsoft.
Obviously it is a person which makes a degree, consider our Harvard grad George W.
But in IT you are right there. In US and all over the world top colleges recruit top talent into science and engineering programs. These grads then become IT core. I've also worked with tons of people who could code well in VB or create reports or query a database, but we would have to agree on what you mean by "success" and "successfull people" before we can go on about whether they made it or not.
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:

The better companies had better predictive models, or paid more attention and planned ahead.

The better (and bigger/older) companies planned ahead and signed multi-year and/or maintenance contracts to survive the slump. Smaller players just didn't have enough resources/money/contacts to do it, so they got squashed. Our average engagement in smaller consulting firms was about 3 months long. That is not enough to carry you over the slump. For big boys it is between 6 months and 2 years, so they can manage risk much better.
If you look at the big picture, over 50% of people are employed by small businesses (I don't have a link right now but I can find it), so if IBMs and Microsofts survived and small guys died, you (as a State) just lost over 50% of your IT jobs. I call it a bad recession.
Roseanne Zhang
Ranch Hand

Joined: Nov 14, 2000
Posts: 1953
How about some examples of people who looked for work recently and easily found a job?

That means nothing, I can give you 7-8. Since we are hiring, and all of our new hires would be an example. However, at the same time, I also personally know many many new laid-offs at the same period of time, many many times of the people who get hired. Erricson just announced a huge new lay-off. Telecom industry is getting from bad to worse. Telecom was a huge demand of IT professionals. Now, many many of them are jobless, even I don't know the exact statistics, above 30% probably a very conservtive estimation.
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Originally posted by Marilyn deQueiroz, in reply to Mark Herschberg:
I'm simply arguing that the current ratio is "normal" and previous ratio were "high" (as opposed to most people lately who seemed to take the last few years as "normal" or "good" and today as "bad").:

Market correction theory. Probably valid. Job markets fluctuate in all fields.

I agree, valid theory, previous ratio was "high". Today's ratio is "bad" however, as opposed to "normal".
If it is "normal", what do you call "bad", when every IT company goes bankrup? That's not exactly market theory. Heavy in IT NASDAQ is around 1750 today, as opposed to 4500 year and a half ago. That's more than a 60% drop. If it is "normal", then what is "bad"???
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Ladies and Gentlemen,
It is not my intention to bring someone down or burn non-believers. I suggest we create a thread where people would post ideas on what to do now, how to find a job if it is not that difficult.
Alex
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
Obviously it is a person which makes a degree, consider our Harvard grad George W.
How dare you insult our president with that rude comment. Everyone knows that Dubya went to Yale!
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Originally posted by Thomas Paul:
How dare you insult our president with that rude comment. Everyone knows that Dubya went to Yale!

Correction, he went to Yale for undergrad degree, and to Harward Business School for MBA
http://www.whitehouse.gov/president/gwbbio.html
:roll:
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by John Fontana:
The statistics to prove it are right in the database at JavaRanch for this BB. These aren't people who used Dreamweaver and called themselves programmers...most of these people, including myself, taught themselves Java, have degrees, and earned SCJP's... Never mind statistics...what could be better than tons of first-hand accounts of the situation?
Let's turn the table around: We MENSA-members know it's theoretically impossible to prove a negative, so prove a positive: How about some examples of people who looked for work recently and easily found a job?

Come on, you should know better then that. We lambast politicians for showing a picture of a starving child as the basis for the need for <insert pork barrel legislation here>. Anyone can come up with a touching horror story. I'm sure if we tried hard enough we could both come up with lots of them. Emotional arguments while powerful often ignore the fundamental issues. For the same reasons, showing some positive stories won't prove my case, either.
Even if you don't accept that, which I suspect you won't, consider something called "sample bias." It's a concept taught in basic statistical classes; basically, you need to make sure you get an accurate represetnation of the sample. Those who have no jobs have the time and pent up frsutration to vent here. Those who have been successful, perhaps busy with interviews, of hard at work on projects, may have neither the time nor motivation to post here. JavaRanch is very much a biased sample space.
OK, even if you don't believe that, you must conceed that JavaRanch users tend to be smarter, better looking, richer, more influencial, and overall nicer people, than those who don't use this site. :-)

--Mark
[ November 09, 2002: Message edited by: Marilyn de Queiroz ]
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:

< Some bio on Bill Gates >

You missed the best one, that his mother was on the board of directors and heavily influenced the decision which gave him the IBM contract!
Again, you make my point. His college had nothing to do with it! He was going to succeed because of his family. It is personal intelligence, charisma, skills, family, friends, upbrining, value, etc which make you succeed. One college over another makes little difference.

Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:

Obviously it is a person which makes a degree, consider our Harvard grad George W. <http://www.javaranch.com>

He went to Yale. But another good point. Think he woudln't have been president if he hadn't gone to Yale?

Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:

But in IT you are right there. In US and all over the world top colleges recruit top talent into science and engineering programs. These grads then become IT core.

very true. The top colleges recruit the top people and the top firms know they can find the top people at the top firms. But again, don't misunderstand the causality. The colleges act as a filter, not much more. As such, it does help, but the contrary is not true, not going to a brand name school doesn't hinder you. Successful people will not be held back by it.
Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:

I've also worked with tons of people who could code well in VB or create reports or query a database, but we would have to agree on what you mean by "success" and "successfull people" before we can go on about whether they made it or not.

Good point. I define success by meeting ones goals. Nothing more.

--Mark
[ April 24, 2002: Message edited by: Marilyn deQueiroz ]
Roseanne Zhang
Ranch Hand

Joined: Nov 14, 2000
Posts: 1953
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:

You missed the best one, that his mother was on the board of directors and heavily influenced the decision which gave him the IBM contract!
Again, you make my point. His college had nothing to do with it! He was going to succeed because of his family. It is personal intelligence, charisma, skills, family, friends, upbrining, value, etc which make you succeed. One college over another makes little difference.

He made it; he made the largest software kingdom in the world history, and the richest man in the world. Not his mother made it.

Originally posted by Shura Balaganov:
I've also worked with tons of people who could code well in VB or create reports or query a database, but we would have to agree on what you mean by "success" and "successfull people" before we can go on about whether they made it or not.

What's wrong with VB programmers. Top VB programmer can make real sophisticated business software go to the market real fast and extremely cost effective. The company used the software have got their competitive edge!!
Even I like Java/C++ far more than VB, but I'll never say VB programmers are inferior than us.
Have said that, however, there are more lousy programmers out there in VB, since it is easy. When I first coded VB (learned it over night literally), after one week, some longtime VB programmers started asking me how I did this, how I did that?
[ April 24, 2002: Message edited by: Roseanne Zhang ]
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Originally posted by Roseanne Zhang:

What's wrong with VB programmers?...
Even I like Java/C++ far more than VB, but I'll never say VB programmers are inferior than us.

Nothing, some of them are really mighty. My point was that everyone defines "success" differently, so we have to base our arguments on the same basic concepts, otherwise our discussion is worthless.
I don't doubt that there are people out there who dream of becoming VB programmers, and constitute their achievment of this goal as success. Me personally, I don't consider being able to drum code 8-10 hours a day an achievement (for myself).
My brain has been idling for too long without a real task.
Back to square one. There are some Java jobs out there, just not enough skilled people.
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
I went on monster.com to see how many java jobs are out there. I refined a search a little bit, to be fair. Here's my parameters:
1. Search string: "java and not (Javascript or administrator or manager or director or mainframe or marketing or clearance)"
Explanation: if you just use "java", you hit a lot of "javascript" or "java script" jobs. "adminitrator" (NT, UNIX) I consider an unrelated profession. Same goes for "manager", "director" or "marketing". "mainframe" came up a few times, although IBM mainframe has some Java interfaces. "clearance" is out because most of us don't have Department of Defence security clearance.
2. I limited search to last 30 days, to be fair (some jobs that are out there longer either don't exist or qualifications are so tough almost noone qualifies).
Here's the result: 1343 jobs, ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
http://jobsearch.monster.com/jobsearch.asp?
I also limited it to my region (somewhere in North-East) and got 52 jobs.
If you look closely, majority of positions are Senior or Architect. There were also some mishaps, like VB or reporting positions in the search, I assume that by limiting my criteria I eliminated as many valid Java positions as there are left invalid. I also found positions that I am very familiar with, they've been reposted.
Overall good exercise. I remember back in the days about 2 years ago I was getting 50 job emails a week on my resume on monster.com.
Can someone do the same for HotJobs and CareerBuilder?
(edit: replaced "IBM" with "IBM mainframe")
[ April 24, 2002: Message edited by: Shura Balaganov ]
(Marilyn shortened url)
[ November 09, 2002: Message edited by: Marilyn de Queiroz ]
Marilyn de Queiroz
Sheriff

Joined: Jul 22, 2000
Posts: 9044
    
  10
Dice.com came up with 1120 jobs across the country using that criteria. No restrictions regarding full-time/part-time/contract etc. 13 of those jobs were in my state.

CareerBuilder - 848 nationwide

ComputerJobs.com - 689 nationwide
[ April 24, 2002: Message edited by: Marilyn deQueiroz ]
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
More bad news...
the economy is in great shape!
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/26/news/economy/economy/index.htm
"GDP grows 5.8% in 1Q"
And speaking of data...
Check out
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/sumnip-d.html
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm
It has yet information on why this recession isn't as bad as the one in the early 90's.
--Mark
SJ Adnams
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 28, 2001
Posts: 925
Well the US may be ok, but here in the rainy UK we had 0% last quarter and 0.1% this quarter?
Mark, can you tell us what your book is about or is it a secret?
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Simon Lee:
Mark, can you tell us what your book is about or is it a secret? ;)

All I'll say right now is that the seed for it was my talk Real World Software Engineering. I'll start a new thread with more info when the book is in a more stable state.
--Mark
Matthew Phillips
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 09, 2001
Posts: 2676
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:
More bad news...
the economy is in great shape!
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/26/news/economy/economy/index.htm
"GDP grows 5.8% in 1Q"
And speaking of data...
Check out
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/sumnip-d.html
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/dn1.htm
It has yet information on why this recession isn't as bad as the one in the early 90's.
--Mark

That does not mean jobs are immediately available. It does point to the possibility that the market will pick up in the near future.


Matthew Phillips
Luther Adon
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 27, 2002
Posts: 51
Man, I get so depressed coming to this forum and reading about all the people who can't get an IT job. It's like a car accident though and I can't look away. Unfortunately I am one of them. I graduated ITI July 2001 and have managed only 2 interviews for IT, the one I nearly got being eliminated after 9/11.
Now, if you are not familiar with ITI I (and many others) went there as they are said to be the best graduate school for applied info technologies. The tuition was $25,000 and the decision to go to an IT school looks now about as good as buying a ticket for the Titanic. Here's a little statistic for you stats hounds: ITI prides itself on 98% of it's graduates within 6 months getting IT jobs and of my graduating class 1/3 to 1/2 has IT jobs. We are the first class doing this badly ever out of ITI. Most of us have stooped to just getting whatever job we can to pay off our massive debts.
Well, try getting a laugh out of www.oddtodd.com after all if you can't laugh at your own state all you can do is cry.
Vladan Radovanovic
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 20, 2000
Posts: 216
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:

the economy is in great shape!

... but this is the shape of the
tech sector ...
Marilyn de Queiroz
Sheriff

Joined: Jul 22, 2000
Posts: 9044
    
  10
This article points out that "Just about everything technology-related was back in Wall Street's dog house this week after a slew of heavyweights didn't deliver the numbers they had promised in the first quarter. Earnings targets were missed as revenues shrank. Companies are pushing their profit recovery forecasts as far out as next year because the demand drought has gotten worse. "

"`The former bluest of blue chips, AT&T, has announced a 5:1 reverse stock split, which is a course of action that was formerly reserved for the weakest companies,'' says Kent Engelke, capital markets strategist for Anderson & Strudwick Inc."

"The biggest names in technology -- Microsoft, Cisco Systems and Dell Computer -- did not make Business Week's list of the 50 best-performing companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 this year. "
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Mark,
Come on, man, you gotta do better than that, with your nifty MIT degree and all. You can't compare apples and oranges.
Besides, first article comes from the same guys who publish Money magazine - yellow populistic pump-and-dump type of publication that I would recommend anyone with a common sence to avoid. Unless, of course, one likes to loose a lot of money. I played a game of reverse tracking (the one that is very well played by some "genius" investors and MSNBC): you take 10-15 stocks that are called great buys by Money 2-3 years ago, and track their performance. Even during internet bubble this portfolio would tank like Titanic (LutherAdon - thanks for the quote).
GDP and this other economics data is probably as reliable as Enron's balance sheet. It is very statistics-based, and can be manipulated by government and such. For instance, Locheed Martin won $200 Billion dollar governmental bid to develop and build new fighter plane, in first quarter. I wonder if these quarterly "growth" numbers a somehow affected by, for instance, this gigantic order (not to mention a few others).
I find "Fast Company" and "Harvard Business Review" to be a lot more accurate as far as business information.
Well, I hope your book does real well. Hopefully, you know more about real time software engineering, and from real life experience, than you do about economics (don't take this as personal offence, none intended).
Shura
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
Quotes from "Wall Street Journal", Thursday, April 25.
"March durable-goods orders fell, capital spending remained weak. Orders of big-ticket items - cars, appliances and other goods meant to last 3 years or longer fell by 0.6%. EXCLUDING DEFENCE, capital-goods orders fell by 2.8% in March after 4.6% gain in February, underlining that CAPITAL SPENDING - THE DRIVING FORCE OF LAST YEAR'S RECESSION - remains a weak spot.
In a development that highlights a potentially GROWING RISK TO MAKING JUDGEMENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY, the Commerce Department said that it can NO LONGER INCLUDE SEMICONDUCTORS in its monthly durable-goods survey. It said...that an acceptably accurate monthly estimate can no longer be produced.
Intel Corp....stopped providing data to the government last month. Intel spokesman Chuck Mulloy said management felt the number of orders was MISLEADING and not indicative of actual sales because many clients cancel their orders within weeks of when they are booked."
We can all safely assume, that if the data would be in any way positive, none of semiconductors would stop providing it to the government.
Just to give you an idea how government manipulates economic data, here's 2 numbers from that report:
Durable Goods : -0.6% from Feb2002 to March2002
Defence: +17.8% from Feb2002 to March2002.
Here's one more, same newspaper:
"AOL Time Warner, the nation's largest media company, posted $54.24 Billion dollars lost in first quarter, or -$12.25 per share, and lowered corporate profitability targets for the rest of the year"
The economy is in as great shape as 350 pounds chips-and-pizza eating couch potato Joe, right before heart attack (this quote is rated R)
Shura Balaganov
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 22, 2002
Posts: 664
It goes like this:
Economy slows down >>> Federal reserve starts lowering interest rates >>> (interest rate doesn't do anything) Government starts a war in a remote country >>> Defence orders pour in >>> Economic indicators, affected by defense spending, go up >>> People start believing that indicators are true and start spending money >>> Economy recovers
Somewhere along the lines of this "unsigned shift" there are lot of assumpions, like:
1. The remote country should be weak enough for us to be easily beaten and not too weak for people to think it's a hoax
2. People will believe economic indicators and not their own eyes
3. There is a real threat to the country!!! this one makes me crack all the time
4. Last 2 steps of the cycle ACTUALLY HAPPEN
5. There's enough people to pay enough taxes to sustain defense spending (ain't that a twisted spin, I tell ya )
Anyhow, this all might be just a pure weekend hangover of mine talking, and I certainly hope it is
Oh, yeah, last two weeks job market has been worming up a little, I've seen some real job emails caught into my job search nets.... Some support positions appear to become available (guess what, systems start to choke!) - good news for A+ and admins. Also, I saw some intern and entry level positions as I've checked Sunday New York Times, although very few for the city of this size. Nothing really for Java, unless you have 3+ years of experience.
Shura
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Well, first let me say that I am glad to see people are using actual data, rather then simply complaining just because they personally don't have a job. :-)
I don't know the reputation of most of the business magazines, so to those who attack the sources, I can't respond to you. You very well may be right. However, I do know about government metrics.
Shura Balaganov writes:
GDP and this other economics data is probably as reliable as Enron's balance sheet. It is very statistics-based, and can be manipulated by government and such.

This is absolutely false. First, I can't believe you are arguing it's bas because it's "statistics based." Come on, you know better then that. We like statistics, it's useful. Fundamentally statistics are neither good nor bad, it's just how you intepret them. Second, the GDP cannot be manipulated, nor can most, if not all, other government economics indicies.
Now there are those who claim that it may not be an accurate inidcator. And others claim it's biased some way or another. However, all will agree that it cannot be manipulated, and that over a period of, say, 10-15 years, it's a valid relative indicator.
(You can attack my economics knowledge, I don't claim to be great, but I draw the line at government data. :-)
The tech sector numbers may be down, currently, but that doesn't worry me, as long as the overall indicators are up. I suspect as the economic recovery takes holds companies will first do some in house work--hiring new people, planning new projects, doing in house development--before they start throwing money into the pure tech companies. Remember, tech is a secondary indsutry. It is primarily a support industry, providing products and services to other businesses. Consequently, it's recovery will always lag the national economy.
It would be interesting to find how many tech jobs are in companies like AT&T, IBM, and Dell, and how many are in house in companies like Travellers Group, Blue Cross/BLue Shield, and the government.
--Mark
 
I agree. Here's the link: http://aspose.com/file-tools
 
subject: Thousands of Java Jobs Available!
 
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