Originally posted by John Smith:
You are playing Texas Hold'em Poker and are looking at 10 spades - 9 spades. The flop is 8 spades - 7 spades - 2 clubs. What's the probability that you will make a straight or better by the river?
- Jess
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Originally posted by John Smith:
AW: probability of getting one of the good cards on the first draw is 15/47.
probability of getting one on the second draw (after a bad first draw is 15/46.
Therefore probability of getting a straight or better in the sum of the 2:
(15/47) + (15/46) = 0.645
Not quite. Here is the reality check: suppose we go by your methodology, but we can draw the card three times, not two times. Then the probability would be (15/47) + (15/46) + (15/45), which is insanely close to 1. Draw the card one more time, and you will exceed 1. So think again.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
Piscis Babelis est parvus, flavus, et hiridicus, et est probabiliter insolitissima raritas in toto mundo.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
Originally posted by fred rosenberger:
of course, you have the same (more or less) probability of getting that last 10 on the river, thus your four-of-kind 10's beating his four-of-kind 6's.
i assume this is NOT what happened?
Piscis Babelis est parvus, flavus, et hiridicus, et est probabiliter insolitissima raritas in toto mundo.
Make visible what, without you, might perhaps never have been seen.
- Robert Bresson
Originally posted by John Smith:
...AK suited shows in the top 10 hands, and 55 is way down. Yet if you play AK suited against 55, you will lose most of the time.
The challenge is to explain this seemingly illogical non-transitivity in logical terms.
Make visible what, without you, might perhaps never have been seen.
- Robert Bresson
Originally posted by John Smith:
If AKs beats any single opponent more frequently than 5-5 beats any single opponent, wouldn't it be perfectly reasonable to expect that AKs will beat 5-5?
Make visible what, without you, might perhaps never have been seen.
- Robert Bresson