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One of my personal heroes

 
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Dr. Phil Plait, also know as "The Bad Astronomer" has recently become one of my personal heroes. He first came to my attention for his book and blog on bad astronomy - stupid things done in movies and TV that clearly violate known laws of nature.

In more recent years, he has become a leader in the skeptic community, and a leader in the fight against the anti-vaccination movement.

I honestly can't even believe I have to write those words... the fact that an anti-vaccination movement EXISTS sickens me.

Dr. Plaits most recent blog post makes me want to throw up. Whooping Cough, also known as pertussis, is making a comeback in California.

And it's killing people.

It's killing babies.

I would encourage everyone to read what Dr. Plait writes - not just this post, but everything in his blog is fascinating. His blog bounces back and forth between being a skeptic, being a geek, and being an astronomer. I've seen some amazing pictures of moons, planets, stars and galaxies. I've laughed at some of his insights into people and geek culture. And I've wanted to scream when I read posts like the one linked to above.
 
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fred rosenberger wrote:I honestly can't even believe I have to write those words... the fact that an anti-vaccination movement EXISTS sickens me.



Agree 1000%. Vaccines can be argued as one of the top 3 greatest inventions in human history (beside the printing press and penicillin). Why? They stop deadly diseases from taking lives! Pertussis, smallpox, menengitis, the list goes on...and I have not seen one viable shred of evidence that vaccines cause any of the harm that the anti movement declares. How many hundreds of millions (if not over a billion) of people are alive today because of vaccines?

/rant


Ok, but seriously people...get your vaccines. They can not only save your life, but those you come in contact with.
 
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fred rosenberger wrote:... the fact that an anti-vaccination movement EXISTS sickens me...


Any med or treatment presents a question of risks vs. benefits, and dispensing with reason when evaluating this is a disturbing trend. Any scientific margin of error or uncertainty -- however tiny -- provides refuge for denying an entire body of knowledge, and accepting contrary anecdotal evidence as "proof."

Ugh.
 
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Can you guys make any distinctions between say a whooping cough vaccination and a vaccination for whatever flu is going around this year? It seems like those are two very different situations...
 
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Fred, if you like Dr. Plait you might also like the stuff Ben Goldacre does too. He's got good entries on the way vaccination scares exist allround the world, but they vary massively, e.g. the huge MMR scare in the UK while over the channel the same vaccine was being used without any fuss in France.

His blog is probably a bit UK-centric but full of good info and links to other quack-baiters out there.
 
fred rosenberger
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Bert Bates wrote:Can you guys make any distinctions between say a whooping cough vaccination and a vaccination for whatever flu is going around this year? It seems like those are two very different situations...


How do you mean they are different? A vaccine is basically something your body sees as a pathogen, but which is harmless in it's current state.

The flu vaccine injects flu germs that are killed. Your body sees them as what they are, and so it builds up the antibodies to attack them. The vaccine can't make you sick, because the pathogens are dead. This is the same technique used for the polio, cholera, hep-A, and many other vaccines.

the DPT vaccine (diptheria, pertussis, tetanus) used killed whole-cells of the pathogen causing pertussis. This is what you and I got, and it's just like the flu vaccine.

They now have what's called the DPaT (or something like that) vaccine. It is what's called 'acellular' - the vaccine no longer contains the entire cells, but parts of cells, or things that don't have a cellular structure (it's not exactly clear to me beyond "It's not complete cells").

Perhaps you're wondering why you get a new flu vaccine each year, and not the pertussis?

For one thing, there are scores of diseases called 'the flu'. They're all similar, but slightly different. I know you're a horse guy. Imagine the strains of flu are different kinds of horses. So, this year, you get immunized against Clydesdales. Next year, there is an outbreak of Icelandic horses, so you need a different vaccination.

With Pertussis, you're really in the most danger as a child. So you get immunized once you're old enough. Then, once your 6-8, you loose your immunity, but you're body is strong enough to fight it off (usually). They are starting to consider immunizing people over 65 for it, because you start getting weaker again.

One other interesting point about vaccines. The vaccine isn't what protects you. YOU being vaccinated doesn't protect you.

What really keeps you safe is what's called "Herd immunity". If enough people are vaccinated, the disease can't get a foothold. It can't reach critical mass (so to speak), and cause an outbreak.

If you read enough, you'll find that the outbreaks of these diseases that shouldn't happen are almost ALWAYS in or around a community that has a strong anti-vax sentiment, where perhaps as few as 80% of the people are vaccinated. So remember that while everyone should have a choice in the matter, when another person chooses to skip theirs, that directly effects YOUR health.
 
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Paul Sturrock wrote:Fred, if you like Dr. Plait you might also like the stuff Ben Goldacre does too. He's got good entries on the way vaccination scares exist allround the world, but they vary massively, e.g. the huge MMR scare in the UK while over the channel the same vaccine was being used without any fuss in France.

His blog is probably a bit UK-centric but full of good info and links to other quack-baiters out there.


Holy guacamole!!! I got to paragraph 2 of his most recent post before I had to pick up my jaw:

seismologists are now being indicted and investigated for manslaughter, on account of their failure to warn the population that an earthquake was coming.



Way to go, Italy!!!

Thanks for pointing me to this guy. Stupidity knows no international boundaries. I will gladly enjoy reading what he has to say.
 
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It's very difficult to prove a negative -- that vaccines do not trigger autism. Removing one suspect mercury-based ingredient with no change in the autism rates proved that that this ingredient probably was not a factor. But could the desired immune response trigger autism in people genetically susceptible? That is much harder to disprove.

One can argue that the vaccines are a net benefit, considering the death rate from pertussus before the vaccine was developed. But did it also cripple or disable some of the children who survived? If not, one could argue that it is easier and cheaper to have, say, replace five babies dead of pertussus with five new babies than to take care of one additional person with autism. But then, even if you prefer not to have children die you have deal with the "prisoner's dilemma" that it's better still if everyone's children _except_ yours get the vaccine.

Perhaps a better understanding of the causes of autism and the people susceptible to it will allow us to better tune our strategy to minimize the losses while maximizing the benefits.
 
fred rosenberger
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Frank, you raise some interesting points. I'll say a few things in reply.

The study that first linked vaccines to autism has been THOROUGHLY discredited. I may not have the exact numbers right but basically, it went like this...

someone noticed that 10 patients who recently were diagnosed with autism had also recently gotten their vaccines. They did a study, and concluded there may be some causal relationship.

The anti-vax community ran with this study. They've been quoting it for YEARS, even though...

One by one, all of the co-authors have removed their name from the paper.
The study was found to be flawed.
The lead researcher was found to have competing interests. He was involved in the creation/manufacture of something that would be a direct market competitor to the existing vaccine.
The lead researcher was found to have used unethical methods with his research participants, doing many unnecessary and invasive test on children, without getting proper consent.
I believe he has also had his license to practice medicine taken away, but am not 100% sure on that.

After all this, the anti-vax movement STILL points to this study to prove their case. Further, they keep moving the goalposts. First, they said it was due to the thermiosil in the vaccine. Once that was removed and there was no significant change in Autism rates, they said it was due to the number of vaccines in such a short time. Then, when it was realized people are getting FEWER vaccines than before, they said it was something else.

They keep saying "I can't prove it, but I KNOW in my heart it was the vaccine that caused it. They need to look at people's experiences and take that into consideration".

And that is what they DID. Personal experience is where science STARTS, not ends. There have been MANY studies done since this first one, and NONE have ever found a relationship. Instead of spending money/effort/research on finding the REAL cause, we keep having to re-prove that it is NOT vaccines.

it's better still if everyone's children _except_ yours get the vaccine.

I disagree. The prisoner's dilemma has everyone think the same way. So If that's how _I_ think, then that's how _everyone_ has to think. So nobody gets vaccines, which is the worst case. vaccines do give each person some immunity. Part of living in a civil society is you do things for society as a whole. So, I can vaccinate my child, which benefits all society AND my child at the price of a small risk to my child, or I can not vaccinate my child which harms society and greatly increases her risk. Clearly, the best case is everyone gets vaccinated.

Perhaps a better understanding of the causes of autism and the people susceptible to it will allow us to better tune our strategy to minimize the losses while maximizing the benefits.

This I agree with. And we could do it better if we didn't keep wasting time proving vaccines do NOT cause autism.
 
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Frank Silbermann wrote:Perhaps a better understanding of the causes of autism and the people susceptible to it will allow us to better tune our strategy to minimize the losses while maximizing the benefits.



If, indeed, there are any "losses" at all. From all I've seen, vaccines have nothing at all to do with autism. That's just a red herring which people will grasp at if they get an icky feeling from the whole concept of vaccination. Which some people do.
 
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The Wakefield study has been discredited and he has been struck off (for the use of unethical methods). It was 12 children Fred, not 10, but otherwise you've summarised pretty much spot on. Even if it were ethically run and there were no conflicts, it was still just a case study, not a clinical trial.

The most frustrating thing is since this "media hoax" (a phrase I've borrowed from Ben Goldacre) all public discussion of autism tends to mention vaccines, when there is no study that links any vaccine to autism. The link when Wakefield first mentioned it was spurious at best but relentless media coverage and piss-poor science journalism got it well established in every parent's list of stuff to panic about.

So Frank, your points are all salient (and I agree with your conclusion); my only gripe is you involved Autism in a discusion about vaccines where it hadn't yet been mentioned, and I suspect its the legacy of the failings in the media I mention above is why you made the connection?
 
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Bert Bates wrote:Can you guys make any distinctions between say a whooping cough vaccination and a vaccination for whatever flu is going around this year? It seems like those are two very different situations...



I'm assuming you are talking about the H1N1 vaccine? I'm less critical of those that didn't get that one (I never got it), because of the appearance of a very short testing phase of the vaccine. Of course, I also believe it was more of a media-induced pandemic than a real pandemic, but that is more of a personal opinion than anything.
 
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It's very difficult to prove a negative -- that vaccines do not trigger autism

One more thing to say about this...While this is a true statement, there is also exactly ZERO evidence vaccines DO cause autism.

You could just have easily said "It's very difficult to prove a negative -- that the Tooth Fairy does not exist". That in no way means that she DOES exist. "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". Linking vaccines to autism is an extraordinary claim, and there is not one shred of evidence to support it.
 
Frank Silbermann
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Paul Sturrock wrote:The Wakefield study has been discredited and he has been struck off (for the use of unethical methods). It was 12 children Fred, not 10, but otherwise you've summarised pretty much spot on. Even if it were ethically run and there were no conflicts, it was still just a case study, not a clinical trial.

The most frustrating thing is since this "media hoax" (a phrase I've borrowed from Ben Goldacre) all public discussion of autism tends to mention vaccines, when there is no study that links any vaccine to autism. The link when Wakefield first mentioned it was spurious at best but relentless media coverage and piss-poor science journalism got it well established in every parent's list of stuff to panic about.

So Frank, your points are all salient (and I agree with your conclusion); my only gripe is you involved Autism in a discusion about vaccines where it hadn't yet been mentioned, and I suspect its the legacy of the failings in the media I mention above is why you made the connection?

I agree that there are no credible studies whatsoever linking the vaccines with autism. There is anecdotal evidence by parents that their kids rapidly went downhill "right after" getting the shot, but considering the number of children getting the shots, and the number of autistic children whose first indications were _not_ within days of receiving the shots, it is quite likely to be coincidence. But quite likely is not the same as proven. And given that there are a number of crippling diseases which seem to be caused by immune reactions to pathogens in genetically vulnerable children (e.g. type 1 diabetes, which is heavily correlated in identical twins, yet sometimes one will develop it but not the other), is is conceivably _possible_ that there is some link to inocculations. (However, a lot more things are possible than likely.)

And yes, the Prisoner's Dilemma correctly models this situation, which is why, in a democratic society it is indeed in everyone's best interest for the vaccines to be required. That said, it is better yet for me to have everyone's children vaccinated but not mine; and it doesn't matter whether everyone else things that way -- what matters is whether I have the power to make my own children the sole exceptions to the rule. (But then, life would be better for me in a great many ways if I held this kind of arbitrary power.)
 
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W. Joe Smith wrote:I'm assuming you are talking about the H1N1 vaccine? I'm less critical of those that didn't get that one (I never got it), because of the appearance of a very short testing phase of the vaccine. Of course, I also believe it was more of a media-induced pandemic than a real pandemic, but that is more of a personal opinion than anything.


The H1N1 vaccine was exactly like any other flu vaccine. Each year, the 'normal' vaccine is made up to immunize you against three strains of the flu. Some think-tank decides what they think the nasty strains will be in the upcoming year, based on what is happening elsewhere around the world. They then cultivate the vaccine.

Last year, they guessed 'wrong'. They chose strain 'A' instead of 'B'. When 'B' started becoming widespread, they use the exact same procedure to create this 'new, untested' vaccination. If they had guessed differently 6 months earlier, you would have gotten the H1N1 vaccine in the 'normal' shot, and never known.

I work in healthcare. My company has mandated every employee (26,000+ in western MO and eastern IL) get a flu shot every year, or be terminated (with medical and religious exceptions). When H1N1 started to be an issue, we all had to get that vaccine as well.

 
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"anecdotal evidence" is an oxymoron. Either it's an anecdote, or it's evidence. it's not both.

And parents reporting this is why you do studies in the first place. Once the studies indicate ZERO correlation, you have to look at something else.

I will ALWAYS disagree that it is better for everyone else to get shots and not your kid. it is ALWAYS better for everyone to get vaccinated.

Even if your child is not vaccinated, there is a chance she will get sick. The results can be paralysis, disfigurement, coma, or death (among other things). Have you ever seen someone with smallpox or polio? (warning - they are not pretty)

Do you think it was better for Dana McCaffery to have not gotten immunized (she was four weeks old when she died from pertussis - too young for immunizations).

According to the WHO, the leading cause of immunization preventable deaths is measles.

What do you gain by not getting your child vaccinated? you eliminate the non-existent chance of them 'getting' autism from the vaccine. but you also INCREASE there chances of getting a deadly disease by many orders of magnitude.

that is NOT something worthwhile to me, nor should it be to anyone else.
 
Frank Silbermann
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fred rosenberger wrote:"

What do you gain by not getting your child vaccinated? you eliminate the non-existent chance of them 'getting' autism from the vaccine. but you also INCREASE there chances of getting a deadly disease by many orders of magnitude.

Yes, but that chance is vanishingly small if everyone else is vaccinated. My own personal lack of ultimate arbitrary power to ensure that everyone else is vaccinated is the only thing that makes this position untenable.
 
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fred rosenberger wrote:

W. Joe Smith wrote:I'm assuming you are talking about the H1N1 vaccine? I'm less critical of those that didn't get that one (I never got it), because of the appearance of a very short testing phase of the vaccine. Of course, I also believe it was more of a media-induced pandemic than a real pandemic, but that is more of a personal opinion than anything.


The H1N1 vaccine was exactly like any other flu vaccine.



Which is why I said "appearance of a very short testing". I'm sure it was fully tested and validated, but telling the masses that a medicine being dispersed only a few months after the disease is noticed it becomes hard to convince them it is properly tested. As I stated, H1N1 was a media-induced pandemic. They needed drama, they got it. When something new and more drama-ish pops up, they move on.
 
fred rosenberger
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Frank,

Nobody has proved that vaccinations don't DECREASE chances of autism - and as you say, that would be very hard to prove. So for all we know, getting a vaccination DOES decrease it. Therefore, by your logic, your child SHOULD be vaccinated, even if everyone else has been, because they might have less of a change of being autistic.
 
Frank Silbermann
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fred rosenberger wrote:Frank,

Nobody has proved that vaccinations don't DECREASE chances of autism - and as you say, that would be very hard to prove. So for all we know, getting a vaccination DOES decrease it. Therefore, by your logic, your child SHOULD be vaccinated, even if everyone else has been, because they might have less of a change of being autistic.

That might be a consideration if we had anecdotes of infants showing autistic symptoms who appeared to "snap out of it" shortly after getting vaccinated, and if we had some idea as to how the inocculation might afford such protection.

No, the real reasons for vaccinating my kids are that I _cannot_ guarantee that they will never be exposed to an unvaccinated person, and the law (thanks to society's shameful refusal to award me absolute arbitrary power over everyone else).
 
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fred rosenberger wrote:You could just have easily said "It's very difficult to prove a negative -- that the Tooth Fairy does not exist". That in no way means that she DOES exist.



Here's an anecdote about the nature of scientific inquiry:

At some point in her life, my daughter realized that the Tooth Fairy was a fiction. So to confirm her theory, she repeatedly said to my wife "Mum, you were the Tooth Fairy, weren't you?" To which my wife's answer was "No, I wasn't."

My daughter had made the same assumption as you: that the Tooth Fairy is female. But in fact tooth-fairying was my job, not my wife's. It took my daughter quite some time to get past this incorrect assumption and find the truth.
 
fred rosenberger
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Frank Silbermann wrote:That might be a consideration if we had anecdotes of infants showing autistic symptoms who appeared to "snap out of it" shortly after getting vaccinated, and if we had some idea as to how the inocculation might afford such protection.


I said nothing about CURING autism, so I don't see your point.

Further, we have no ideas on how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, yet you seem willing to accept that without it.
 
Frank Silbermann
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fred rosenberger wrote:

Frank Silbermann wrote:That might be a consideration if we had anecdotes of infants showing autistic symptoms who appeared to "snap out of it" shortly after getting vaccinated, and if we had some idea as to how the inocculation might afford such protection.


I said nothing about CURING autism, so I don't see your point.

Further, we have no ideas on how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, yet you seem willing to accept that without it.

The belief some people have is that vaccines trigger autism, i.e. cause it for certain people. The symmetric alternative would be that it cured it. As for ideas how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, it could be due to immune cells attacking certain parts of the brain (just as immune cells responding to certain viruses cause type I diabetes).

I do not assume that vaccines cause or trigger neurological disorders; I merely posit that it is possible.
 
fred rosenberger
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Frank Silbermann wrote:The belief some people have is that vaccines trigger autism, i.e. cause it for certain people. The symmetric alternative would be that it cured it.


Wouldn't a more probable alternative be it does NEITHER?

Frank Silbermann wrote: As for ideas how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, it could be due to immune cells attacking certain parts of the brain (just as immune cells responding to certain viruses cause type I diabetes).



Perhaps the antibodies created by the vaccination would also attack an unknown pathogen that causes autism, thus curing it.

Frank Silbermann wrote:I do not assume that vaccines cause or trigger neurological disorders; I merely posit that it is possible.



It is possible a jolly old fat man lives at the North pole and flies around the world in a sleigh pulled by reindeer once a year. Nobody has of yet proved he does NOT. There is plenty of literature saying he does.

 
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fred rosenberger wrote:

Frank Silbermann wrote:The belief some people have is that vaccines trigger autism, i.e. cause it for certain people. The symmetric alternative would be that it cured it.


Wouldn't a more probable alternative be it does NEITHER?

Frank Silbermann wrote: As for ideas how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, it could be due to immune cells attacking certain parts of the brain (just as immune cells responding to certain viruses cause type I diabetes).



Perhaps the antibodies created by the vaccination would also attack an unknown pathogen that causes autism, thus curing it.

Yes, I think the most likely situation is that the vaccine neither causes nor cures autism. However, as unlikely as that the vaccine causes autism, the that the vaccination would attack an unknown pathogen that causes autism, thus curing it, seems to me would be "unlikely squared."
 
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there are some consequences to getting a vaccine. Plus have you seen what Mercury does to brain cells. I will be asking for vaccines without mercury when my child gets vaccinated.

Watch This
 
Paul Clapham
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Which vaccines have mercury in them?
 
James Hambrick
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Paul Clapham wrote:Which vaccines have mercury in them?



From what I've read, heard and saw most vaccines use mercury as a preservative. You can get some without, but they may cost more or something.
 
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James Hambrick wrote:Watch This


And?

Seriously, this is possibly the worst case of journalism I have seen in a long time. They have not even shown any sort of correlation between that lady getting a vaccine and getting Dystonia. They have not even tried. All they mentioned in passing is that she got a shot a short while before having flu symptoms, and then we jump to her having Dystonia. I give as much credence to this as if they had mentioned that a black cat crossed her path.
 
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James Hambrick wrote:From what I've read, heard and saw most vaccines use mercury as a preservative. You can get some without, but they may cost more or something.


You don't think it could be possible that vaccines which aren't properly preserved might be dangerous in some other way?

You can play this game all day. Look for possible dangers, find things which are in some way remotely similar (for example mercury in a vaccine you get once versus eating mercury-laden fish as your main item of diet all your life), and pretend those remotely similar things are also dangers. All the time ignoring other things which are more similar but are something you do regularly.

Like people who are concerned about living down the street from a cell-phone tower, while not being concerned about having televisions or network routers in their own homes.
 
fred rosenberger
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article from CNN on whooping cough
 
fred rosenberger
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Thimerosal is the preservative used in vaccines that contained mercury. While there was NO evidence linking the mercury to autism or any other serious side effects, it was more or less removed from all vaccines around 2000.

You can check the CDC's web page here to see what vaccines currently contain any (and the answer is very few).
 
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"Anti-vaccination movement" hearing it for the first time. I'm sure 95% of the people in india don't know about this. Is it popular in other countries?
 
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web-comics on Homeopathy and the MMR mess.

These are not 'humorous' web comics, but serious ones that talk about how these two movements started.
 
Frank Silbermann
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akash kumar wrote:"Anti-vaccination movement" hearing it for the first time. I'm sure 95% of the people in india don't know about this. Is it popular in other countries?

There are some Muslim countries where rumors were spread that the polio vaccine was a western conspiracy to sterilize Moslem childen. Unsurprisingly, the result was a number of localized polio epidemics.

Many children who get polio suffer varying degrees of permanent paralysis. At college 37 years ago I met a student who had caught polio as a child. He walked with a severe limp, as one of his legs didn't work right and never grew to its proper size.
 
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akash kumar wrote:"Anti-vaccination movement" hearing it for the first time. I'm sure 95% of the people in india don't know about this. Is it popular in other countries?


to summarize and mis quote the wonderful ben goldacre again, this is an exact proof, that this autism panic is purely english (and maybe 1 other country)
 
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James Hambrick wrote:there are some consequences to getting a vaccine. Plus have you seen what Mercury does to brain cells. I will be asking for vaccines without mercury when my child gets vaccinated.

Watch This



You do realize that she got better (so the diagnosis of dystonia is wrong) and there is no evidence that her condition was caused by vaccines?
Will you be getting rid of your bathtubs and toilets since they pose a very real risk to your children or does that risk not get enough press to be concerned about?
 
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