There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
fred rosenberger wrote:I honestly can't even believe I have to write those words... the fact that an anti-vaccination movement EXISTS sickens me.
SCJA
When I die, I want people to look at me and say "Yeah, he might have been crazy, but that was one zarkin frood that knew where his towel was."
fred rosenberger wrote:... the fact that an anti-vaccination movement EXISTS sickens me...
"We're kind of on the level of crossword puzzle writers... And no one ever goes to them and gives them an award." ~Joe Strummer
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(If you're not on the edge, you're taking up too much room.)
Bert Bates wrote:Can you guys make any distinctions between say a whooping cough vaccination and a vaccination for whatever flu is going around this year? It seems like those are two very different situations...
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
Paul Sturrock wrote:Fred, if you like Dr. Plait you might also like the stuff Ben Goldacre does too. He's got good entries on the way vaccination scares exist allround the world, but they vary massively, e.g. the huge MMR scare in the UK while over the channel the same vaccine was being used without any fuss in France.
His blog is probably a bit UK-centric but full of good info and links to other quack-baiters out there.
seismologists are now being indicted and investigated for manslaughter, on account of their failure to warn the population that an earthquake was coming.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
I disagree. The prisoner's dilemma has everyone think the same way. So If that's how _I_ think, then that's how _everyone_ has to think. So nobody gets vaccines, which is the worst case. vaccines do give each person some immunity. Part of living in a civil society is you do things for society as a whole. So, I can vaccinate my child, which benefits all society AND my child at the price of a small risk to my child, or I can not vaccinate my child which harms society and greatly increases her risk. Clearly, the best case is everyone gets vaccinated.it's better still if everyone's children _except_ yours get the vaccine.
This I agree with. And we could do it better if we didn't keep wasting time proving vaccines do NOT cause autism.Perhaps a better understanding of the causes of autism and the people susceptible to it will allow us to better tune our strategy to minimize the losses while maximizing the benefits.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
Frank Silbermann wrote:Perhaps a better understanding of the causes of autism and the people susceptible to it will allow us to better tune our strategy to minimize the losses while maximizing the benefits.
Bert Bates wrote:Can you guys make any distinctions between say a whooping cough vaccination and a vaccination for whatever flu is going around this year? It seems like those are two very different situations...
SCJA
When I die, I want people to look at me and say "Yeah, he might have been crazy, but that was one zarkin frood that knew where his towel was."
One more thing to say about this...While this is a true statement, there is also exactly ZERO evidence vaccines DO cause autism.It's very difficult to prove a negative -- that vaccines do not trigger autism
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
I agree that there are no credible studies whatsoever linking the vaccines with autism. There is anecdotal evidence by parents that their kids rapidly went downhill "right after" getting the shot, but considering the number of children getting the shots, and the number of autistic children whose first indications were _not_ within days of receiving the shots, it is quite likely to be coincidence. But quite likely is not the same as proven. And given that there are a number of crippling diseases which seem to be caused by immune reactions to pathogens in genetically vulnerable children (e.g. type 1 diabetes, which is heavily correlated in identical twins, yet sometimes one will develop it but not the other), is is conceivably _possible_ that there is some link to inocculations. (However, a lot more things are possible than likely.)Paul Sturrock wrote:The Wakefield study has been discredited and he has been struck off (for the use of unethical methods). It was 12 children Fred, not 10, but otherwise you've summarised pretty much spot on. Even if it were ethically run and there were no conflicts, it was still just a case study, not a clinical trial.
The most frustrating thing is since this "media hoax" (a phrase I've borrowed from Ben Goldacre) all public discussion of autism tends to mention vaccines, when there is no study that links any vaccine to autism. The link when Wakefield first mentioned it was spurious at best but relentless media coverage and piss-poor science journalism got it well established in every parent's list of stuff to panic about.
So Frank, your points are all salient (and I agree with your conclusion); my only gripe is you involved Autism in a discusion about vaccines where it hadn't yet been mentioned, and I suspect its the legacy of the failings in the media I mention above is why you made the connection?
W. Joe Smith wrote:I'm assuming you are talking about the H1N1 vaccine? I'm less critical of those that didn't get that one (I never got it), because of the appearance of a very short testing phase of the vaccine. Of course, I also believe it was more of a media-induced pandemic than a real pandemic, but that is more of a personal opinion than anything.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
Yes, but that chance is vanishingly small if everyone else is vaccinated. My own personal lack of ultimate arbitrary power to ensure that everyone else is vaccinated is the only thing that makes this position untenable.fred rosenberger wrote:"
What do you gain by not getting your child vaccinated? you eliminate the non-existent chance of them 'getting' autism from the vaccine. but you also INCREASE there chances of getting a deadly disease by many orders of magnitude.
fred rosenberger wrote:
W. Joe Smith wrote:I'm assuming you are talking about the H1N1 vaccine? I'm less critical of those that didn't get that one (I never got it), because of the appearance of a very short testing phase of the vaccine. Of course, I also believe it was more of a media-induced pandemic than a real pandemic, but that is more of a personal opinion than anything.
The H1N1 vaccine was exactly like any other flu vaccine.
SCJA
When I die, I want people to look at me and say "Yeah, he might have been crazy, but that was one zarkin frood that knew where his towel was."
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
That might be a consideration if we had anecdotes of infants showing autistic symptoms who appeared to "snap out of it" shortly after getting vaccinated, and if we had some idea as to how the inocculation might afford such protection.fred rosenberger wrote:Frank,
Nobody has proved that vaccinations don't DECREASE chances of autism - and as you say, that would be very hard to prove. So for all we know, getting a vaccination DOES decrease it. Therefore, by your logic, your child SHOULD be vaccinated, even if everyone else has been, because they might have less of a change of being autistic.
fred rosenberger wrote:You could just have easily said "It's very difficult to prove a negative -- that the Tooth Fairy does not exist". That in no way means that she DOES exist.
Frank Silbermann wrote:That might be a consideration if we had anecdotes of infants showing autistic symptoms who appeared to "snap out of it" shortly after getting vaccinated, and if we had some idea as to how the inocculation might afford such protection.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
The belief some people have is that vaccines trigger autism, i.e. cause it for certain people. The symmetric alternative would be that it cured it. As for ideas how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, it could be due to immune cells attacking certain parts of the brain (just as immune cells responding to certain viruses cause type I diabetes).fred rosenberger wrote:
Frank Silbermann wrote:That might be a consideration if we had anecdotes of infants showing autistic symptoms who appeared to "snap out of it" shortly after getting vaccinated, and if we had some idea as to how the inocculation might afford such protection.
I said nothing about CURING autism, so I don't see your point.
Further, we have no ideas on how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, yet you seem willing to accept that without it.
Frank Silbermann wrote:The belief some people have is that vaccines trigger autism, i.e. cause it for certain people. The symmetric alternative would be that it cured it.
Frank Silbermann wrote: As for ideas how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, it could be due to immune cells attacking certain parts of the brain (just as immune cells responding to certain viruses cause type I diabetes).
Frank Silbermann wrote:I do not assume that vaccines cause or trigger neurological disorders; I merely posit that it is possible.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
Yes, I think the most likely situation is that the vaccine neither causes nor cures autism. However, as unlikely as that the vaccine causes autism, the that the vaccination would attack an unknown pathogen that causes autism, thus curing it, seems to me would be "unlikely squared."fred rosenberger wrote:
Frank Silbermann wrote:The belief some people have is that vaccines trigger autism, i.e. cause it for certain people. The symmetric alternative would be that it cured it.
Wouldn't a more probable alternative be it does NEITHER?
Frank Silbermann wrote: As for ideas how the inoculation might CAUSE autism, it could be due to immune cells attacking certain parts of the brain (just as immune cells responding to certain viruses cause type I diabetes).
Perhaps the antibodies created by the vaccination would also attack an unknown pathogen that causes autism, thus curing it.
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Paul Clapham wrote:Which vaccines have mercury in them?
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James Hambrick wrote:From what I've read, heard and saw most vaccines use mercury as a preservative. You can get some without, but they may cost more or something.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and off-by-one errors
There are some Muslim countries where rumors were spread that the polio vaccine was a western conspiracy to sterilize Moslem childen. Unsurprisingly, the result was a number of localized polio epidemics.akash kumar wrote:"Anti-vaccination movement" hearing it for the first time. I'm sure 95% of the people in india don't know about this. Is it popular in other countries?
akash kumar wrote:"Anti-vaccination movement" hearing it for the first time. I'm sure 95% of the people in india don't know about this. Is it popular in other countries?
James Hambrick wrote:there are some consequences to getting a vaccine. Plus have you seen what Mercury does to brain cells. I will be asking for vaccines without mercury when my child gets vaccinated.
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