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Is Java Dying???????????

Anit Bhatnagar
Greenhorn

Joined: Mar 12, 2001
Posts: 17
Hi,
I am new in the field of java and I want to make career in this. But today I heard this rumor that Java is no going to die and professionals are being taken out.
I live in a small town and no one here knows what really going on. Please let me know what truth is.
Thanks

------------------
Anit Bhatnagar
E-27, University Qtrs,
Durga Nursery Road,
Udaipur - 313001
Rajasthan
India.
Tel: +91 294 420652


Anit Bhatnagar
Grant Crofton
Ranch Hand

Joined: Nov 08, 2000
Posts: 154
I've just been looking for some statistics, but I can't seem to find anything reliable (there are a few things on sun's site).
As far as I was aware, Java is fast becoming if not already the most popular programming language about. But then I don't really have anything to ck that up with.
Here are some links:
This is about the European job market, but it says go Java: http://www.techweb.com/wire/story/TWB20001005S0004
This is from an article about job interviews (or something)
"Desperate companies don't care if the candidate is a job hopper. They're not doing background checks...If they see C++ or Java on the resume, you're in, regardless of your manners." (from http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1007-200-2212724.html )
This is about the US job market, and suggests that there aren't that many openening in India at the moment: http://www.sunservermagazine.com/billday/bday0200.htm
if ths page worked, it should answer your question (supposed to show job ststs, but didn't work when I looked): http://jobstats.jobnet.com.au/jobtools/jsjobstats.displaycategory?in_catid=5&in_type=100
This says Java is a good career path: http://www.sunworld.com/swol-02-1996/swol-02-career.html
And this page says some good things about it, although I think it's a couple of years old: http://java.sun.com/people/jag/Presentations/JapanDevCon/text2.htm
IDC reckon Java is the most in-demand skill in Dev, although the number of developers is going down: http://www.idc.com:8080/software/press/PR/sw030200PR.stm
Frank Carver
Sheriff

Joined: Jan 07, 1999
Posts: 6920
This, and the many similar threads already there, are more suited to "Jobs Discussion", so I've moved this thread.


Read about me at frankcarver.me ~ Raspberry Alpha Omega ~ Frank's Punchbarrel Blog
Steve Fahlbusch
Bartender

Joined: Sep 18, 2000
Posts: 557
    
    7

Yes Java is dying!!!
Just like any technology there will come a time when it is no
longer used. But that day is still a very long way away.
Java is an enabling tool, the same way assembler, fortran, cobol, pl1, c, c++ and a whole host of others. Java is still coming to it's own and it's place in history has still be written.
BUT ITS ONLY A TOOL.
Learn java, get your first (or many) jobs but don't marry a
technology, learn it, understand it, use it and when the
time comes walk away. Learn all the tools you can and then you
can use the best you have.
And right now, for a lot of applications, Java is best!
Rajesh Hegde
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 15, 2000
Posts: 112
Hi buddy,
Hows weather in Udaipur?? I am one of your well wisher from california. I would like to update you regarding latest news here in Silicon Valley. Pl. read following figures.
Company | Layed-offs
------------------
Cisco 8000
Dell 1700
Intel 5000
JDSU 3000
Lucent 10,000+
Nortel 10,000
Motorola 4000 (+ 7000 - the latest today)
HP 1600
Above figure adds up to 40000 +. And it is just a bigshot add up.. And I am one of them.
Today Nasdaq is all time low 1900... Networking giant cisco is trading at $18(all time low)..
(i have removed the numerical figures for the number of java guys, as i feel those may be unconfirmed)
[This message has been edited by Rajesh Hegde (edited March 13, 2001).]
Matts Smith
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 03, 2001
Posts: 113
Hi there,
One thing you didn't say is that those companies have always been overevaluated. I work for a small business (300 employees) and we are still hiring java guys as we find them. Public companies have to make layoff to please investors to make the stock price rise in times like today. This is the way it works. My advice is stay away from big public companies. Usually small ones are a safer bet as the peopple making decisions are playing with their money not investors'.
Vladan Radovanovic
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 20, 2000
Posts: 216
The majority of the people that have been laid-off are sales and marketing people. I really would like to know where did You get the information that 100000 java programmers have been laid-off.
Tony Alicea
Desperado
Sheriff

Joined: Jan 30, 2000
Posts: 3222
    
    5
"Out of 100000 guys 80000 are java programmers..."
I don't believe that for a second. I don't even have to confirm it. It just sounds false.


Tony Alicea
Senior Java Web Application Developer, SCPJ2, SCWCD
John Coxey
Ranch Hand

Joined: Oct 24, 2000
Posts: 503
I agree with Tony, these numbers do not sound accurate.
The layoffs seem to be marketing/sales more than technical. Also, alot of the layoffs are being done through attrition (retirement).
It sounds like (from this forum) that perhaps the H1B hiring process has finally slowed down. On the other hand, my company is still hiring (mostly Business Analysts at this time). I've been on the bench for 8 weeks now - but company says that projects are comming down the line and no layoffs (for Java programmers) are anticipated.
I also got a call from an outfit in Wash D.C. last night, want to fly me out there for an interview (Java). I guess they had my resume from last Oct/Nov. Unfortunately, I am committed to staying out west for the next few years.
Another point. If there were all these technical layoffs (100,000+), why are the unemployment numbers for last month down?
Just my two cents.
John Coxey
(jpcoxey@aol.com)


John Coxey
Evansville, Indiana, USA
Rajesh Hegde
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 15, 2000
Posts: 112
Hello Guys,
I may be wrong with the figures, but yes , certainly java is on the downslide. The market is not like it was last year for java.
In my company, all the java guys on bench were layed off, and the company says it cannot carry on the business in java.
I am an admirer of java. I slogged for 3 months to get certified, and did of a lot of self study on server-side technologies. But currently e-commerce and web are down. I am on job hunt now.
As far as H1-B's go, yes the market is very much down. The consultancy firms are no longer getting java guys from India. My former company from which i got layed off last week has sponspored for about 120 H1's and most of them are java guys.But now the company is not bringing any one to US. There are several such firms in the list. At present it looks like the supply is far exceeding the demand for java.
(ps: John Coxey, I was on bench for 4 weeks, on the 5th week i got the marching orders citing market downturn.)

[This message has been edited by Rajesh Hegde (edited March 13, 2001).]
ARS Kumar
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 22, 2000
Posts: 108
I think the layoffs are just started now. So once they get implemented, then the unemployment rate might increase. Regarding people on bench, I know a company who deals with only Unix have a huge bench size now. Its NOT just the java market that is down, I guess all IT job market is down now.
If you are really good with whatever your resume says , I still believe you will be able to find a job. Regarding H1B guys it is NOT a good sign now. But I think this will be OK withing 3 to 4 months. The same thing happened close to 2000 for mainframe programmers.

------------------
ARS Kumar
Sun Certified Programmer for Java 2 Platform.


ARS Kumar, Sun Certified Programmer for Java 2 Platform
http://www.automatedsqa.com/
Tony Alicea
Desperado
Sheriff

Joined: Jan 30, 2000
Posts: 3222
    
    5
Well, if you heard the rumor (and I quote you):
"But today I heard this rumor that Java is no going to die"...
Then what's the problem?
---
Sheriff Tony
Tony Alicea
Desperado
Sheriff

Joined: Jan 30, 2000
Posts: 3222
    
    5
Maybe it's time for all to start realizing that you cannot get hired as a Java programmer just because you have a pulse and 67% in SCPJ2 with absolutely no experience in programming. Maybe, just maybe, the market is just adjusting to REALISTIC levels.
I was never in favor of the artificial increase in H1B visas that companies asked for (and got) from our Congress here in the USA last year.
In the "good old days" of 6 months ago we hired a presumed Java "expert" from India (I didn't interview him). First sign of "trouble", in his first assignment, he writes a method for a new class, with about 400 lines of code in it!!
WE DID NOT PROGRAM LIKE THAT (it was a NO-NO) IN THE STRUCTURED PROGRAMMING DAYS of 25 years ago!!!
Any function (called "method" in the Java language) more than 80 or so lines of code (max!) should be... oh well, I don't even need to tell you!
Now the market has stabilized (thank God!) and hopefully some SANITY will come to hiring.
After that experience, we are not hiring Java-alleged programmers in such a hurry...
Solution? Start asking COBOL and RPG programmers IN-HOUSE, "Who would like to consider re-training in Java?"
Smart move. Some of them can't even believe that we are asking. Sure there's training in the immediate future as well as Certification. But it's for people we know and trust already.
THAT'S the difference.
TRIVIA: My small Java group, *THE* core Java Group, consists of one Rumanian, one Polish, one Indian and myself a Puertorican. And I mean NATIONALS who speak English with an accent because they have not been here as long as I have! Our supervisor is a Gringo
And I am the one with the least experience in Java (one year the 27th)
And Puerto Rico is part of the USA. WE are USA citizens by birthright. My first job was there.
Good Luck!
Tony Alicea
Desperado
Sheriff

Joined: Jan 30, 2000
Posts: 3222
    
    5
I forgot: I speak and write better English than many "americans" in the MIS group. But then again, I am used to it because I was born, raised and educated in Puerto Rico, which fully explains it.
srini dadi
Greenhorn

Joined: Dec 21, 2000
Posts: 5
John Coxey;
I think the Unemployment rate does not include the figures of H1B visa guys who are getting laid off, as they do not get the Unemployment benefits. And it is a fact that a number of IT professionals are H1B guys. So the actual IT guys getting laid off cannot be correlated with the Unemployement rate.
Srini
John Coxey
Ranch Hand

Joined: Oct 24, 2000
Posts: 503
Srini Dadi:
I would assume that both H1B's and USA-Citizens would be laid off at the same rate. Especially with the investment a company would have made in an H1B (relocation, fees, etc.). We don't have any H1B's at our office - so can't tell from personal experience. Furthermore, the Denver office is still hiring.
We did announce a 5% layoff for the Eastern region, but most of these were via attrition, and none were forced from what I have been told.
Still, the numbers are not up. Meaning things are stable across the board.
I believe the slowdown is being interpreted by our company as just temporary - and that things should pick up again by June/July time frame.
Remember, it's easier to sell gloom and doom than positives - reason why news media is overblowing the whole situation.
John Coxey
(jpcoxey@aol.com)

[This message has been edited by John Coxey (edited March 15, 2001).]
shailesh sonavadekar
Ranch Hand

Joined: Oct 12, 2000
Posts: 1874
please take a look at the analysis & reports by Gartner Group.
i think this will satisfy the people worried about the future of the java. I have posted it in Programmer Certification Results forum. Have a look & be Happy.

Your Friendly Bartender
Shailesh.
shailesh sonavadekar
Ranch Hand

Joined: Oct 12, 2000
Posts: 1874
Anit , I think you will be releived now. Be optimistic.
Your Friendly Bartender
Shailesh.
Anit Bhatnagar
Greenhorn

Joined: Mar 12, 2001
Posts: 17
Thanks to all of you.
I am really relieved and i now strongly feel that Java will not die. I am very glad to all of u nice people out there who helped me getting out of this rumor.
You people not only helped me but also to all of my friends who are preparing for SCJP2.
Thanks again...
Anit Bhatnagar
Rajesh Hegde
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 15, 2000
Posts: 112
Hi all:
Just wanted to share the good news with you guys- My previous client has taken me back on a new contract as he has some important delivarables to be ready within 2 months. So i am back to job on java.
Rajesh
Saran Vel
Ranch Hand

Joined: Nov 03, 2000
Posts: 111
Hey Rajesh,
That's really great news..
Have a wonderful career in Java..
Enjoy
------------------
Saran
Sun Certified Java2 Programmer


Saran
Sun Certified Java2 Programmer
octavyn pittman
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 06, 2001
Posts: 134
I think that one may find that the demand of even half a year ago has subsided and less people are walking into programming and tech jobs with little experience, or with other lacking skillsets. True, there is an investment in these visas, but when it comes down to it, that investment is very little in the big scheme of corporate finance and politics. While the internet and web jobs are currently in decline, these technologies and infrastructures are not going to fade away and are very integrated with modern life. Java is an important part of that infrastructure and it will continue to grow.
The biggest jeopardy to Java in my opinion is the onslaught of jr. level programmers and project managers billing themselves as more experienced, or even hired with unfair expections placed upon them by hiring managers and HR departments voluntarily blinding themselves to the obvious. The failure of one or two high finance projects is enough to give a technology a bad name in a corporation, and if enough corporations/businesses get turned off of Java, the moneyline that finances this language will dwindle and it could die. So if you are going to learn this language, learn it well. Use the tool as an expert and it will treat you right.
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