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No future for IT people in US.

Alex Ayzin
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 10, 2001
Posts: 107
Read it: "The New HP Way: World's Cheapest Consultants" http://www.forbes.com/2002/12/05/cz_qh_1205hp.html
If you're concerned, read and fill out one of these: http://www.unionvoice.org/campaign/offshoring
--Alex
P.S: Note to Mark: Please, spare me your contr-arguments that this is a good thing, about survival of the strongest and the fittest and that consumers are only gonna gain from it. I don't care about it. Thank you.
--Alex
[ March 03, 2003: Message edited by: Alex Ayzin ]
Matthew Phillips
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 09, 2001
Posts: 2676
Here is another counter argument. The money that businesses save in one area will either be spent in another area or the savings will be passed on to the customer. In either case it helps the economy and creates jobs. Although many maintenance coding jobs and even some new coding jobs will be sent offshore, companies will want to keep the mission critical stuff close to home. R&D is not going to grind to a halt. As new technologies emerge, and businesses expand to take advantage of this, new IT jobs will be created. Those jobs will be considered mission critical so they will be kept close to home. When you start seeing companies move their entire operations to other countries it will be time to worry.


Matthew Phillips
Michael Bronshteyn
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 26, 2002
Posts: 85
Well, the business can only save money if they actually sell their product. All of those companies, who move overseas, hope to build their product there and sell it here, on the US market, for bigger profit. The problem is that people who loose jobs here are not going to be able to spend money to buy products the way they did. Thus, no matter what is the salary saving, if the companies are not going to sell their products, they are going to loose money.
People in IT industry are paid relatively better compare to other industries. Thus, if they have to exit this field, they will not be able to reproduce their salaries therefore spend as much as they did.
People who will keep their jobs will realize that it is time to save money, because future is very uncertain and should they loose their jobs, they may have to exit this field as well, what will also decrease their spending.
Another problem I see is that American companies are training IT force overseas. I think it is a matter of time before we see Indian and Chinese companies competing successfully with American companies in software market ( I think Cisco already sees it ). In this case their entire operations are going to be overseas and therefore their products are going to be cheaper than same products from US companies.
Thus I don�t see a rosy picture when I hear news that people get laid off here and their jobs are moving overseas.


Michael
SCJP2
Vitor Belfort
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 27, 2002
Posts: 30
The problem is that people who loose jobs here are not going to be able to spend money to buy products the way they did. Thus, no matter what is the salary saving, if the companies are not going to sell their products, they are going to loose money.
People in IT industry are paid relatively better compare to other industries. Thus, if they have to exit this field, they will not be able to reproduce their salaries therefore spend as much as they did.
People who will keep their jobs will realize that it is time to save money, because future is very uncertain and should they loose their jobs, they may have to exit this field as well, what will also decrease their spending.

Well HP doesn't sell their consulting services to everyday people like me and you. They do consulting and stuff like that for big companies for big money. So the average joe doesn't enter the equation. Will the simple fact that the vocation of programmin doesn't exist in America offset the entire economy? Not likely... The IT work force is not large enough to have such a dramatic impoact... And besides time alleviates everything. It won't happen tomrrow, or next week, it happens over time. So over time, the effects will not really be felt.
I do live and work(unemployed currently in the U.S. but it seems stupid to me to FORCE the companies to hire american workers and nothing else... We got screwed big time as IT workers and our future is bleak... But c'est la vie... Can't go around crying to congress about it... It's not going to solve much. Why try to fix things artificially when all business are SALIVATING to go to China and India... That's what they want? let them do it...
Let the few indian and chinese workers enjoy some of the benefits of the IT wave... Wasn't the U.S. pushing for a global market and open border policies? Now lets accept the consequences without whining like old women.
Realx, take a deep breath and swallow... Sometimes we must accept reality for what it is.
Alex Ayzin
Ranch Hand

Joined: Apr 10, 2001
Posts: 107
Originally posted by Vitor Belfort:

Wasn't the U.S. pushing for a global market and open border policies? Now lets accept the consequences without whining like old women.

Well, losing my second job in as many years last Friday kind of makes you skip all that political-bull$it - personally, I couldn't care less about Global Economy initiative. Will it bring food to my famili's table? No. Does it affect me now? Yes. Our governmnet lost touch withreality, it does what it please without regards to its own taxpayers. But that's beside's the point.
Originally posted by Vitor Belfort:

Realx, take a deep breath and swallow... Sometimes we must accept reality for what it is.

Vitor, I'm not sure what culture you came from, Freanch I'd guess, but here in New York we don't like than some stranger gives unwelcome advices about swallowing. Keep it for yourself.
--Alex
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037


Vitor, I'm not sure what culture you came from, Freanch I'd guess, but here in New York we don't like than some stranger gives unwelcome advices about swallowing. Keep it for yourself.

This board is all about sharing advice with others (most of whom are strangers). Let's be respectful of the opinions of others.
--Mark
Sam Kebab
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jan 23, 2002
Posts: 104
One way to be competitive is to push for a "weak" dollar. If the dollar depreciates 50% vs Asian Currencies - IT wages here in the US will be competitive.
In the late 90's some Asian currencies depreciated - by more than 50% (i think). Making it cheaper to do business there. For instance, if you have a US$20k salary in asia - you will live like a king. Here in NY - you'll starve (heck you'll barely make it with 40k).
So who wants a strong dollar? Perhaps if you don't have debt, have a huge portfolio in US$, you like the beach in Asia, play golf in Asia, gamble in Asia, or are outsourcing business to Asia.
Vitor Belfort
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 27, 2002
Posts: 30

Well, losing my second job in as many years last Friday kind of makes you skip all that political-bull$it - personally, I couldn't care less about Global Economy initiative. Will it bring food to my famili's table? No. Does it affect me now? Yes. Our governmnet lost touch withreality, it does what it please without regards to its own taxpayers. But that's beside's the point.

I feel your pain... I'm struggling to make ends meet and I live here in the U.S. just like you and many others that are going through this nightmare. My diploma is worth burning and I sturggle for any experience I get. But you honestly don't realize how easy people have it in the U.S.... The seconds smoething goes bad everyone puts away their toys, cries and starts pointing fingers.
I know you couldn't care less about the WTO and why people always rebel against it, or any of this political nonsense. All we, common people want is some financial stability, throw in some hobbies and there you go, life is happy. Well things are not that simple and all this political bullcrap affects us in a very real way.
All we hear is globalization globalization, its the greatest and coolest. The second it bites us back, we don't like it anymore it's crap. Knowledge of why the situation is like this could only be beneficial so don't disregard all this political nonsense as crap. You are the one affected by it you should care about it most! If you don't then who will? You think the CEO of HP thinks about guys like you and me? Hell no...
If I was a veteran worker with some healthy experience and got 100k for what I do, I agree that I'd have no right to tell you anything. But I'm going through the same crap as you.
Can I blame the idian person who makes 10k for taking the job that he's offered? No way! Can I blame the corporation for offering him employment? Well the Nike sweatshops and all the other things don't bother us... It'd be kind of hypocritical to turn around now and say that outsourcing is evil. I agree that uncontrolled outsourcing can have some tragic effects, but the trends is just beginning... We haven't even seen the worst of it yet.
And "c'est la vie" is a very commonly used French expression that means "such is life." I'm not French tough.
And about the swallowing advice... Maybe you read too much into it
Todd Killingsworth
Greenhorn

Joined: Jan 30, 2002
Posts: 28
Well, losing my second job in as many years last Friday kind of makes you skip all that political-bull$it - personally, I couldn't care less about Global Economy initiative. Will it bring food to my famili's table? No. Does it affect me now? Yes. Our governmnet lost touch withreality, it does what it please without regards to its own taxpayers. But that's beside's the point.
quote:

Alex, I'm in the same boat - two jobs in two years. The current job market is nearly impossible with the technical requirements, and doesn't make sense. However, three years ago it didn't make a lot of sense either, with new grads expecting $50K and a signing bonus.
The only constant in this industry is change. This cannot last forever. Outsourcing is the current business buzzword, the same as "reengineering" and "Internet Enabling" have been in the past. Outsourcing is a threat to job stability for in-house developers, reguardless if it's a foreign contract house or not. Foreign outsourcing is more risky, and communications and time differences are a real problem. Results will be just like local outsourcing - some companies will profit from it, but a number of them will blunder in, overcommit to it for the wrong business reasons, and end up losing money. I've already heard of some failures (Altel Communications) where the corporation brought their projects back in-house.
If you are in a situation to do it, hone your skills and wait out the storm. If not, apply to small firms (50-100 employees) that really aren't in a position to leverage foreign outsourcing.
But the best shot you've got in surviving is in what you can do for yourself.
The unions haven't had real power ever since Reagan fired the air traffic controllers in the '80s.
Todd Killingsworth
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Sam Kebab:
So who wants a strong dollar? Perhaps if you don't have debt, have a huge portfolio in US$, you like the beach in Asia, play golf in Asia, gamble in Asia, or are outsourcing business to Asia.

Anyone who buys products from overseas benefits from a strong dollar; Clothes, shoes, cars, gas, food, eletronics, etc are cheaper for those in the US when the dollar is strong.
--Mark
Fred Grott
Ranch Hand

Joined: Oct 05, 2002
Posts: 346
Originally posted by Alex Ayzin:
Read it: "The New HP Way: World's Cheapest Consultants" http://www.forbes.com/2002/12/05/cz_qh_1205hp.html
If you're concerned, read and fill out one of these: http://www.unionvoice.org/campaign/offshoring
--Alex
P.S: Note to Mark: Please, spare me your contr-arguments that this is a good thing, about survival of the strongest and the fittest and that consumers are only gonna gain from it. I don't care about it. Thank you.
--Alex
[ March 03, 2003: Message edited by: Alex Ayzin ]

Note in the natural normal economics..when there is a gut in a specific labor supply..rates go down..
By having the strongest and fitest survive and toehrs leave that market for a better market with higher rates for their services both gorups win..not just one!
Unless you fully believe in Karl Marx you cannot fight economic trends as an indvidual..you can learn from them and make your job choices accordingly however..
and quite frankly in 1990s we had unskille dpeople in it that were getting the same rate as those who were skilled..its painfull but the dead wood has to be cleared in some way.. not a statement against indiviuals just generic views of trends ..


MobileBytes blog - Sharing Technology - My Programming Knols
Marc Peabody
pie sneak
Sheriff

Joined: Feb 05, 2003
Posts: 4727

You probably didn't lose your job to another country. Times with war uncertainties make our companies take fewer risks. Fewer risks means fewer projects. Fewer projects means fewer jobs. As a recent graduate, I've yet to land a job.
Our country's programmers should willingly take on the competition of other countries. Sure, they might work for less because the cost of living is so much less there, but we need to prove that our skill level makes us worth it.
Realize that in this industry you need to spend as much as 10 hours a week studying. If a company doesn't give you that time at work, you need to take that into consideration at the time of hire.
I hear all the time older IT guys complaining they don't have time to keep up with technology because of kids or whatever. My suggestion is to find something else for a career if you can't keep up. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen.
A lot of people hopped into IT a couple years ago because they loved what it paid. It won't pay that much ever again [ignoring inflation]. If you love the work, the pay won't matter so much. If you just love the pay - start up your own bank or WalMart and quit complaining.
It's a simple marketing principle to hire people with the greatest ratio between cost and added value. If you add $100,000 of value and will work for $50,000 you are much more likely to be hired than some alien adding $20,000 of value and working for $15,000.
I'm not giving up. My passion is in software. I know this ain't "money for nothin' and the chicks for free" anymore and I'm willing to push myself to show what I am worth.
And as for the union, it won't hold when there are a globe full of scabs desparate for work. But nice try.


A good workman is known by his tools.
Sam Kebab
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jan 23, 2002
Posts: 104
Yeah that is right Mark.
Christian Schnepf
Greenhorn

Joined: Sep 25, 2001
Posts: 28
I am curious if this "outsource most of our IT" mentality has happened in the past since I am too young to know.
I have noticed that most things in technology are cyclical and so are a lot of business decisions.
Is this an old trend rearing it head again and we just need to wait for it to go away again?
Todd Killingsworth
Greenhorn

Joined: Jan 30, 2002
Posts: 28
From what I remember, outsourcing IT was a trend in the early 90's (91-93?). At the time, I was contracting for the DoD, so it wasn't high on my radar. Outsourcing for other business functions has been around for decades, though. Payroll, for example - does your company actually print/issue its own paychecks, or do they use ADP or Ceridian?
Ultimately, outsourcing (IT or otherwise) depends on how crucial the outsouceable work is to the corporation, and how comfortable they are in surrendering complete control of it.
If it is a task requiring commodity knowledge that isn't closely related to a corporation's business (Payroll, Accounting, software development) and the contract house can provide the service more cheaply than the corporation can do for itself, then contracted resources can be used so the company can focus on what it does best - manufacture cars, provide health care, etc.
As mentioned in other posts, companies will keep mission critical projects close to home where they can have more control.
Todd Killingsworth
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by Vitor Belfort:
Can I blame the corporation for offering him employment? Well the Nike sweatshops and all the other things don't bother us... It'd be kind of hypocritical to turn around now and say that outsourcing is evil.
Speak for yourself. I have never bought a pair of Nikes. The only sneakers I own are Converse because they are made in the US. I do my best to avoid supporting companies that export jobs and hurt Americans.


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Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Thomas Paul:
Speak for yourself. I have never bought a pair of Nikes. The only sneakers I own are Converse because they are made in the US. I do my best to avoid supporting companies that export jobs and hurt Americans.

So what kind of car do you drive? I'd be very surprised if your car didn't have parts made in foreign countries.
--Mark
Vitor Belfort
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 27, 2002
Posts: 30

Speak for yourself. I have never bought a pair of Nikes. The only sneakers I own are Converse because they are made in the US. I do my best to avoid supporting companies that export jobs and hurt Americans.

Well I understand that deep inside you feel less guilty by buying Converse... But we're beating a dead horse here. Hell even Levi's, which was determined to operate in U.S. for as long as they could bailed out. We gave up on the manufacturing sector long ago and a few revolutionaries are not going to change the trends.
HP is SALIVATING to go outside... They're so excited about this cheap labour overseas that they can't stand still... So let them have it... Are we gonna forcefully pull on the leash and say: bad HP! India's not good for you! bad HP! Nope, don't think we can or have the right to since we encourage Nike to go overseas... Hell we even enjoy those 10 dollar savings these magical sweat shops afford us...
It is human nature to be selfish and only worry about one's slef... Outsourcing is currently happening to us, and we cry out... Others have cried before us on a larger scale. Their voices were not heard. Why do you think we would succeed? Let HP have their way! Enrollment in CS programs at my college dropped dramatically which I think is cool...
John Fontana
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 28, 2002
Posts: 235
Originally posted by Vitor Belfort:

Enrollment in CS programs at my college dropped dramatically which I think is cool...

This is where I think it will come back...Though hard for most of us in this forum to relate to, most people really don't love to be in front of a computer, let alone sit down at one and write software in a cubicle. If the salaries and demand aren't there, newcomers (and some old-timers as well) will likely look to other fields.
Mix that with any kind of substantial improvement in the economy, we should eventually see demand swing back in favor of U.S. programmers...


www.websiteandsound.com
"If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you've always gotten."
Vitor Belfort
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 27, 2002
Posts: 30

This is where I think it will come back...Though hard for most of us in this forum to relate to, most people really don't love to be in front of a computer, let alone sit down at one and write software in a cubicle. If the salaries and demand aren't there, newcomers (and some old-timers as well) will likely look to other fields.

I don't mean to be harsh but I guess you're underestimating the number of geeks and nerds that this new computer age produced.
Derek Grey
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 09, 2002
Posts: 204
This is where I think it will come back...Though hard for most of us in this forum to relate to, most people really don't love to be in front of a computer, let alone sit down at one and write software in a cubicle. If the salaries and demand aren't there, newcomers (and some old-timers as well) will likely look to other fields.
Mix that with any kind of substantial improvement in the economy, we should eventually see demand swing back in favor of U.S. programmers...

I think you are right...I have seen many students who had a bachelor's in Civil Engg jump to a Master's program in CS ....couldn't find a job and are now jumping back to Civil Engg....money could be and has been a big time motivating factor in the software industry..
Also to think off...writing code is much tougher (atleast tickles the brain more...even for the gurus) than doing the routine work in a factory as a mechanical engg/civil engg (exceptions are a few designers and planners)...so why go for a job where one has to spend long hours in front of the computer writing code for 45K...might as well do the routine work.
-ST
Zulfikar Dharmawan
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 01, 2002
Posts: 74
Hi all,
I come from South East Asia, here we have tremendous drought of IT worker, i guess that's what happen in my company. I also read in some articles that's also happening in India.
I guess it's true that the future lies in offshore development and outsourcing. One thing for sure, we in Asia surely eager to move ahead to major IT countries, such as USA, England, Canada, etc..
~justmytwocents
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by John Fontana:

This is where I think it will come back...Though hard for most of us in this forum to relate to, most people really don't love to be in front of a computer, let alone sit down at one and write software in a cubicle. If the salaries and demand aren't there, newcomers (and some old-timers as well) will likely look to other fields.
Mix that with any kind of substantial improvement in the economy, we should eventually see demand swing back in favor of U.S. programmers...


Um, why? Yes, we are an unusual breed in that we enjoy sitting in front of a computer. But that's not an American phenomenon. I'm sure there are plenty of geeks in other nations with cheaper-then-US payrates.
--Mark
Peekaboo Switchback
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 18, 2003
Posts: 33
Zulfikar,
The reason you guys have a lot of jobs in SE Asia is because all the US companies are outsourcing to SE Asia. If you move to US you will be looking for something else to do real soon unless you are a genius in computers.
John Fontana
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 28, 2002
Posts: 235
Originally posted by Vitor Belfort:

I don't mean to be harsh but I guess you're underestimating the number of geeks and nerds that this new computer age produced.

LOL! True - but most of them are busy on file-sharing programs and emailing bad jokes to everyone on their "buddy list". The others are downloading high-end animation software from warez sites so they can have a nice ray-traced sphere for their desktop image. (Looks GREAT when you're stoned, man). They all can't possibly have the time to learn to code.
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:


Um, why? Yes, we are an unusual breed in that we enjoy sitting in front of a computer. But that's not an American phenomenon. I'm sure there are plenty of geeks in other nations with cheaper-then-US payrates.
--Mark

Absolutely - I just mean that some improvement relative to the current market can be expected as we witness a slowdown of newcomers who are losing interest in a (now) less lucrative field --
Paul Stevens
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 17, 2001
Posts: 2823
Outsourcing and Off-shore development are 2 separate things. My company has been in the outsourcing business since 1962. The recent trend has been to use off-shore resources.
You can outsource and still use local development resources.
Pradip Bhat
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 04, 2002
Posts: 149
{companies were trying hard to stall the bill}
New Jersey outsourcing bill put on hold
TINA CHOPRA KARKHANIS
TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ FRIDAY, MARCH 07, 2003 11:46:55 PM ]
MUMBAI: It�s a victory for Indian outsourcing. A bill in the US state of New Jersey, proposing to prevent government contracts being outsourced to India, has been put on hold.
Moved by Senator Shirley Turner, the bill had earlier been unanimously passed by the New Jersey State Senate.
It was considered for discussion by the Senate Committee on Thursday, but could not be passed and has now been put on hold.
Software industry association Nasscom confirmed that the Bill has now been put on hold, apparently because Turner did not approve of certain amendments proposed to the original draft. If the bill is not taken up in this session, which lasts till March 17, it will be pushed to the next session, beginning in May.
The state�s legislative procedure requires the bill to be approved by the Senate Committee before being referred to the Upper House for approval. If cleared, it will finally end up on the governor�s table for his assent.
��We received tremendous support from the US industry and the US IT association. The bill is now being reconsidered as the industry has seen the advantages of outsourcing and tried to convince policy makers,�� said Nasscom president Kiran Karnik.
Nasscom�s lobbying efforts seem to be paying rich dividends. It�s clear from the shift to India�s favour, said I-Flex CEO Deepak Ghaisas. Nasscom suggested that certain provisions of the bill be reworded to allow outsourcing to India � if there were ��strategic advantages�� on cost or quality of services.
Nasscom has been working with the IT Association of America and the US business community to ensure that the bill is not passed.
It has recently also hired a PR firm.
In December, the bill was cleared by the New Jersey state assembly by a 40-0 vote. Turner had said: ��We shouldn�t be sending taxpayer-funded jobs for state contracts to foreign countries when our citizens need work. We should be looking out for our own people instead of developing a cheap labour force in countries where benefits are rarely provided.��
India-born NJ State Assembly member, Upendra Chivukula, had earlier said that the ��bill is anti-business, market protectionist and undermines free enterprise. It is also divisive and discriminatory because it provokes dislike against India and the Indian Community. If we don�t take action now, it will have serious negative consequences in the long term��.
If the move gains momentum, Indian companies would be badly hit, as the bill prohibits foreign call centres from executing state-awarded customer-support contracts. Four other US States are also considering similar bills.
[ March 07, 2003: Message edited by: rahul rege ]

Yeshwantpur
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:

So what kind of car do you drive? I'd be very surprised if your car didn't have parts made in foreign countries.
--Mark


You might be right. But I own two cars made in the US (Chryslers made in the US). Prior to this I owned a Dodge made in Michigan and prior to that I owned a Ford made in Missouri. I can't avoid buying some things that are foreign because either you can't buy an American product or as you suggested with the car, foreign parts are in an American product. But given a choice between an American product and a foreign product I will always buy the American product.
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by Vitor Belfort:
It is human nature to be selfish and only worry about one's slef...
But isn't what puts us above the animals that we overcome our nature?
Vitor Belfort
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 27, 2002
Posts: 30
Thomas Paul you sound like a philosopher that's still stuck in the 18th century... You know ... the age of reason (optimism)...
Read some Nietzche and get your facts straight about the human nature
Competition makes us beasts
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
I don't think I would like living on your planet.
Vitor Belfort
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 27, 2002
Posts: 30
Thomas Paul you must live on a very small planet if you've never heard of Nietzche and believe that altruism is a quality that belongs to all humans.
Paul McKenna
Ugly Redneck
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 08, 2000
Posts: 1006
As an Indian, let me make it clear.. there are many Indians here who genuinely want to help Americans. We appreciate the kindness of americans and would like to repay in any manner possible.
If any "American" is looking for a job, please privately message me and I will try to help. I cannot promise results but I will make every effort to help.
Another piece of information, most Indians you meet are generally very loyal and grateful people. But they simply dont know how to approach Americans. I wont speak for other Indians but as far as I am concerned I really didnt know how to approach an American and offer help. I always thought that he or she wouldnt be interested in any offer I had. So if you know an Indian like me, do ask for help if you need it. Lets be intelligent and put aside our egos temporarily.


Commentary From the Sidelines of history
Arjun Shastry
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 13, 2003
Posts: 1874
Originally posted by Sriraj Rajaram:

... But they simply dont know how to approach Americans. I wont speak for other Indians but as far as I am concerned I really didnt know how to approach an American and offer help.


I always thought that he or she wouldnt be interested in any offer I had. So if you know an Indian like me, do ask for help if you need it. Lets be intelligent and put aside our egos temporarily.

How to find those people who are similar to you?


MH
 
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subject: No future for IT people in US.