*
The moose likes Jobs Discussion and the fly likes Good News! Big Moose Saloon
  Search | Java FAQ | Recent Topics | Flagged Topics | Hot Topics | Zero Replies
Register / Login


Win a copy of Murach's Java Servlets and JSP this week in the Servlets forum!
JavaRanch » Java Forums » Careers » Jobs Discussion
Bookmark "Good News!" Watch "Good News!" New topic
Author

Good News!

frank davis
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 12, 2001
Posts: 1479
The Gloom and Doom in the US IT sector seems a little too all pervasive, so for some good news check out the Sept issue of Business 2.0. They cite some predictions by Forrester or some other well known group that claims the demand for software programmers will double within next 10 years due to the demographics of fewer younger people in the workforce and more older people retiring. Demand for Database Admins will be up 66% also. Three of the top ten hotspots in terms of job growth will be in my home state of Florida : Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami.
I just glanced over the article, and didn't see how they accounted for the burgeoning outsourcing trends... For now, why don't we assume that the pie will be growing so big, so fast, that as the economy recovers there's more than enough for everbody.
Also, no spoiling the good news by poking any holes in the research/prediction assumptions and methodologies
Al Newman
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 30, 2003
Posts: 716
Originally posted by herb slocomb:
The Gloom and Doom in the US IT sector seems a little too all pervasive, so for some good news check out the Sept issue of Business 2.0. They cite some predictions by Forrester or some other well known group that claims the demand for software programmers will double within next 10 years due to the demographics of fewer younger people in the workforce and more older people retiring. Demand for Database Admins will be up 66% also. Three of the top ten hotspots in terms of job growth will be in my home state of Florida : Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami.
I just glanced over the article, and didn't see how they accounted for the burgeoning outsourcing trends... For now, why don't we assume that the pie will be growing so big, so fast, that as the economy recovers there's more than enough for everbody.
Also, no spoiling the good news by poking any holes in the research/prediction assumptions and methodologies

And elsewhere I see forecasts that X number of IT jobs will permanently decamp to India/China/Ruritania over the next 5/10/200 years.
I tend to regard long-term forecasts of either type as a load of cowshite. We'll see. Jobs tend to disappear or appear with bewildering speed for indeterminate causes, and no forecast is remotely able to predict how or why. If a Cobol programmer gets canned and his company eventually contracts for maintenance in India does that count as 'permanently lost'? If that Cobol guy then learns VB.net and lands a job writing reports, does that count as a 'found job'? Who knows?
The only forecasts I've even seen which matter a damn are ones about what technologies are waxing and/or waning. The only statistics which really count are on a personal level. One is either 100% employed or 100% unemployed.
BTW, as a personal thing, I agree with your post. Things are bound to improve and probably are already improving. The only use I've seen for the forecasts are to go out and learn something new. The work is either going to be there or it is not. I've yet to see the business not come back from a recession, so I behave upon the assumption that we're not going to have to move move to India and learn to live on 5 Rupees a day.
[ August 20, 2003: Message edited by: Alfred Neumann ]

SCJP1.4, SCWCD
Natalie Kopple
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 06, 2003
Posts: 325
I hope those rosy forecasts are not made up by the traitor Harris Miller of ITAA for the purpose of raising the cap on H1B/L1.
[ August 20, 2003: Message edited by: Natalie Kopple ]
Tim Holloway
Saloon Keeper

Joined: Jun 25, 2001
Posts: 15950
    
  19

Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami?
Possibly. Back in the late '80s I was jobhunting all over the state. Almost all of the major mainframe shops were in Tampa or Jacksonville. Miami had lost a lot of its bigger outfits and was more into System/38 (AS/400) stuff.
Orlando began to come into its own in the '90s, in large part because of a number of designers or video and disk subsystems. I have noted some demand for "dot-com" style jobs in the Lauderdale/Miami area, so that may turn into something.
Overall, my impressions have been that A) demand for IT skills will continue to grow and B) offshoring will continue to grow. The big question is whether B grows faster than A or vice versa.
Demographics I have little faith in. They don't seem to give enough weight to either the ability of people to work productively for an increasing part of an increasing lifespan or of their need to because so many of us had our retirement schemes get blasted by market sildes and pension plundering.


Customer surveys are for companies who didn't pay proper attention to begin with.
Al Newman
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 30, 2003
Posts: 716
Florida may be a good place to look. Salaries are very low by US standards, but so is cost of living. I spent a week in Tampa subbing for someone once and lived in his company apartment, a legitimate luxury 2-bedroom condo which rented for all of $600 a month. House prices began in the low 50K area for something decent, and a top-notch palace with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, pool, lanai (screen house) and 2 car garage) sold for between 120 and 140K.
Salaries and contract rates were pretty piss-poor however.
Natalie Kopple
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 06, 2003
Posts: 325
Alfred, when were you in Tampa, FL? I was there in the year 2000. Housing was just a little cheaper than that of Northern Virginia. Food, car insurance, etc. were more expensive than those of Northern Virginia.
Al Newman
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 30, 2003
Posts: 716
The summer of 1998, Natalie.
frank davis
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 12, 2001
Posts: 1479
Originally posted by Alfred Neumann:
Florida may be a good place to look. Salaries are very low by US standards, but so is cost of living. I spent a week in Tampa subbing for someone once and lived in his company apartment, a legitimate luxury 2-bedroom condo which rented for all of $600 a month. House prices began in the low 50K area for something decent, and a top-notch palace with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, pool, lanai (screen house) and 2 car garage) sold for between 120 and 140K.
Salaries and contract rates were pretty piss-poor however.

Housing has been steadily increasing in price in Florida. In Broward county (Ft Lauderdale, South Florida area) houses went up 13% in 1 year! The several prior years they were up about 10%. A decent 3/2 in Ft Lauderdale or surrounding cities is close to $200K now. I'm not sure about Tampa however. The State has no income tax, just sales and property taxes mainly.
Right now Orlando is almost a ghost town judging by the help wanted ads in the newspaper. Some increase in activity in Ft Lauderdale/Miami however.
 
I agree. Here's the link: http://aspose.com/file-tools
 
subject: Good News!
 
Similar Threads
What looks like a bull but acts like a bear?
CNN: Better times for better pay
So where is the Jobless Recovery?
back to java
US Job Market Recession