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Count of SCEAs : my theory, please take a shot

 
k.p thottam
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Hi All ,

awhile back some one had asked how many SCEA are out there In response I wrote the below guesimate . Please spend some time and make your guess , it will be useful to all of us , both from the bargaining table stand point and for a sense of the community size .
Please note in my calculation I came up with a number of 2700. But had accidently calculated it as 27,000, please ignore that .

My guess is 2.7k , please take a shot at the possible ratios .

thanks
kpt

Here is my guess :

around 5% of all java programmers are certified at the programmer level.

about 40% of these programmer are developers ( either java 2 developers / web component / business component ) .

case 1 )of the developers about 20 % are scea .

case 2) of the Sun Certified programmers who directly jumped to scea 5%

case 3 ) Directly SCEA without any other sun cert , my guess is only 5% of all SCEAs belong to this group . Yet to meet some one like that


So case 1 + case 2 represents 95% .


So if there are 2 million serious java developers .

My guess is at best 27K . And this is a high end estimate , actual numbers might be lower.

Please take pot shots at my ratios , rather than the number above , so that when the number of java programmers are released by other organizations we can recalculate these numbers .

bye
kpt



 
Ajith Kallambella
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What are we trying to prove here by counting SCEAs?
 
Antony Brugger
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Well, for SCEA certified guys it would interested indeed to know how many java guy have this SUN certification cause it is an added value, especially in tought market time like now.

I passed part I 2 weeks ago , and I'm know working on part II & III. I have no other Java SUN certification, so I guess I'm in the case 3!
 
Vijay S. Rathore
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I would be more interested in finding how many K$ P.A. (Thousand Dollars Per Annum) a SCEA is earning on an average.
 
Gerald Davis
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Does it matter how many Sun Certified Architects there are. By itself a Bachelors Degree in IT is worth more then SCEA, but they are a lot more common.

so there !!
 
k.p thottam
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Many reasons why it is worth counting :

1) The laws of supply and demand .
The count of SCEA helps us to gauge the supply .

2) While bargaining with HR you are better off if you can convince the person across that you are a very rare or rare commodity ( is it rare or very rare will depend on the count )

3) knowing the ratio is psychological advantage during any discussion . Example an MCSE will not announce his MCSE , because we know it is common place , while a CCNA does .
 
Parag Doshi
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I think you should also take into consideration, how many architects are out there who think getting a SCEA certification is so trivial that they dont bother to do it (those numbers will easily outnumbers the SCEA's out there). Plus, just because any person is SCEA certified doesnt make him an architect, similar to a person who got a MBA degree doesnt make him a good manager

And I was just trying to visualise the conversation with the HR manager..'My calculations tell me that there are only 2 more SCEA architects in the immediate 500 miles radius, so you have to give me the big bucks'

I am not trying to discourage you to try and find out the number of SCEAs out there, I personally think that at the end of the day its your experience, your exposure to different mission critical projects, your accomplishments and your creativity/thought process that will get you the desired position in any organization rather than a paper certificate.

Just my 2 cents...


Parag
[ August 11, 2004: Message edited by: Parag Doshi ]
 
Sanz Vai
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We can argue a lot about this. But I agree with KPT. What's wrong in knowing the count? I would even like to know number of SCEAs by states in USA. You may never use it to bargain with HR, but knowing the count gives you some idea on where you are, how valuable you are etc.
 
R. Robles
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I'd like to add to Parag's post: performance.

If a fair employer gets the chance to choose one and only one key element to hire, promote, demote or fire a software developer that will be: performance. HR people know this and use this key element very well.

And performance will be selected over experience, knowledge and credentials. Performance is a dynamic differentiator the rest are static and sometimes under some circumstances don't mean anything.
 
Gerald Davis
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While you guys are at guessing how many SCEA are, have a bash at guessing how many Bachelors Degree in IT holders there are in the world. I always wanted to know. But give me a Bachelors Degree or a SCEA and �4000 ; I would take the Bachelors Degree any day.
 
Peter Bergoff
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Not all bachelor degrees are created equal. That's why something like certifications are valuable. For example - just because you went to law school you're not a lawyer, you also need to pass the bar. Or just because you've graduated high school you can't necessarily go to Harvard - things like the ACT and SATs are used heavily as they level the playing field.
 
Ajith Kallambella
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Since we are now talking about job prospects, self marketing and the impact of SCEA on the paycheck, I am moving this discussion to "Jobs Discussion" forum.

This is a very interesting topic. Please continue the discussion under the new thread.
[ August 17, 2004: Message edited by: Ajith Kallambella ]
 
Chris Mathews
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Originally posted by PETER BERGOFF:
Not all bachelor degrees are created equal. That's why something like certifications are valuable. For example - just because you went to law school you're not a lawyer, you also need to pass the bar. Or just because you've graduated high school you can't necessarily go to Harvard - things like the ACT and SATs are used heavily as they level the playing field.


Your examples are very different from certifications and as such the comparisons do not hold.

In order to practice law, a person MUST have a Law Degree and pass the Bar exam for that state (or another state's Bar exam if accepted).

In order to get into top schools, a person is required to take the SAT or ACT.

In both cases the test in question is a requirement, it is not something that a person does to try and distinguish themselves from others, as is the case with certifications. The SCEA is not required in order to be an architect or developer... some people just think it looks nice on a resume. In fact, a lot of people would argue that the exam does not sufficiently test the skills needed to be a sucessful architect. I personally have seen very little evidence that employers care at all about the cert one way or the other. I have certainly never come across an employer that was actively looking for SCEAs candidates.
[ August 17, 2004: Message edited by: Chris Mathews ]
 
Peter Bergoff
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My point is that an employer knows what a SCEA is. A bachelors degree can mean many things depending on the program and school - and unless the employer went there or did research on the school what does it mean? There are a lot of places you can get a really bad IT bachelors degree as long as you're willing to pay for it. Whether you consider an ACT score or SCEA cert a good or bad judgement tool you know what it is.

I don't disagree that an SCEA may be of questionable value - just that a bachelors degree is also just as questionable. I know a lot of successful IT people without any degree at all.
 
Anthony Watson
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The value of a bachelor's degree is NOT as questionable as the value of SCEA. Think how many multiple thousands of jobs require a bachelor's degree versus the tiny handful of jobs that require an SCEA!
 
Billy Tsai
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some architects have PhD in either compsci or infosys
 
Gerald Davis
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Scenario:
Serpose that you have never worked in it before ,ja. To get there, you have the option of doing the SCJP SCJD and SCEA OR go get a Bachelor in IT and rack up some serious debt (like �9000); what option would you choose?

In my opinion most employers know what a Bachelors is but they do not know what Sun Certificationis. My boss does't,he is head of Refuge and Collecting and I am a road sweaper. And I don't seam like a smart one neither. It must be last week that a drove a refuse truck to collect a fly tip in Mitchem and my work colleagues said I didn't know that you had a driving licence. Translation I thought that you are to retarded to be able to get a driving licence.

Anyway, if I show them a Batchelors, my work colleagues would think I is smart but if I show tham my SCJD and SCEA(when I complet it) they will think nowt of it.

PS if anyone says to me "I didn't know that you had a driving licence I sware I will kill them".
 
Peter Bergoff
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If you're working in a serious java department and your managers don't know what a SCJD or SCEA is I question the value of your managers. A bachelors degree should not be done to go into tech work - you take writing, science, history etc . . . All good to be a well rounded person and maybe employee. But I question their value to be a good java programmer/architect.

A bachelors degree is more important than a SCEA - no doubt. I think the more interesting arguement would be when discussing the value of a IT masters degree.
 
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