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What In The World Is Going On? A Global Intelligence Briefing For CEOs

Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
http://www.superfactory.com/articles/meyer_what_in_the_world.htm

What In The World Is Going On?
A Global Intelligence Briefing For CEOs



This is an interesting article written by a US intelligence expert. He covers four main points:

Four Major Transformations
1. The War in Iraq
2. The Emergence of China
3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization
4. Restructuring of American Business

The article is bit "western versus eastern religion" but I believe we can have a non-hostile discussion about this here (the other topics, not about whose religion is better). I do think the discussion points are very germane to the long term job market.


--Mark
Gabriel Claramunt
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 26, 2007
Posts: 375
Hmmm... thought provoking indeed. But it seems provincial and myopic, just a justification for a preconceived point of view.
Hope the CEOs have a better global view or I don't give them much chances of success...
I'll try to comment more later, but some quotes are just hilarious:

"We�re trying to jolt them from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once"
Yes, by sending them first two millenniums back...

"The Euro is down."
no words...
(ok, maybe it has a different definition of "down", something like "in the past 5 years the dolar was always down compared wit the euro")

"We are becoming one of the last holdouts of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture"
As this translation would say: "I'm high as a kite"


Gabriel
Software Surgeon
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
As I said, a bit "zealotous." This guy was the first senior US intelligence officer to predict the collapse of the soviet union so many people give him credence for that (I'm not sure I do for that though).

--Mark
Nicholas Jordan
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 1282
Describe the restructuring of American Business.

I think we're fixin to get the business. We get more oil from Africa than from regions about which we hear conflict on broadcast media. Truth is stranger than fiction. It is no-shade-for-anyone that the petra treasury is puttin the squeze on, who hollers first is like gonna be played by the (..snip..) industry. The speaker is well-informed, but a few quarters of Intel will break the mind of reasonable, normal folks.

Did you check his veins for icewater?


"The differential equations that describe dynamic interactions of power generators are similar to that of the gravitational interplay among celestial bodies, which is chaotic in nature."
Glen Cai
Ranch Hand

Joined: Aug 24, 2002
Posts: 121


2. The Emergence of China


Why not "The Emergence of INDIA"?


"I, a universe of atoms, an atom in the universe." - Richard Feynman
Nicholas Jordan
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 1282
Good question, what are your thoughts on the matter.
Mark Herschberg
Sheriff

Joined: Dec 04, 2000
Posts: 6037
Originally posted by Glen Cai:


Why not "The Emergence of INDIA"?


The question is not "why not" but "why?"

While India is big, to the points the author was making the changes are much smaller than China's. China uses significantly more oil per capita (source CIA World Factbook online) and has faster rising energy demands. It will have a bigger demand on world oil prices and also has a much bigger military which may act based on oil policy. China also has more disruption in the middle class. India's middle class growth has been tremendous but has come about by market demand. China's has been more forced. China currently has a growing middle class problem, in that the middle class brings new values (e.g. demand for better future for kids, pro-environmental concerns, the need for high end government services like schools and parks) but whereas India is a democracy China has traditionally not allowed such values to be expressed when they conflict with government policy. The authors point is that the changes in China are bigger and the political system is more rigid. The gender imbalance is also an issue if you subscribe to the Youth Bulge theory.


--Mark
srishal singh
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Joined: May 11, 2007
Posts: 33
This (article) is an excellent analysis..

Especially the economic effects of china (oil) consumption. No wonder oil price is reaching new heights every day. I think the world should look for and research on finding alternative fuels.

Also the declining population in europe means they will have to import the workers in future.
Gabriel Claramunt
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 26, 2007
Posts: 375
The aging of US/Euro (and Japan) population is a very important issue too. I think that's one of the causes of why Japan is so obsessed with robots.
Nicholas Jordan
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 1282
Originally posted by Mark Herschberg:
(...snip...)China's has been more forced. China currently has a growing middle class problem, in that the middle class brings new values (e.g. demand for better future for kids, pro-environmental concerns, the need for high end government services like schools and parks) but whereas India is a democracy China has traditionally not allowed such values to be expressed when they conflict with government policy. The authors point is that the changes in China are bigger and the political system is more rigid. The gender imbalance is also an issue if you subscribe to the Youth Bulge theory.


You must be an IA - this is a well scoped digest of Glen Cai's counter-question. 中國 is the Center of Civilization, holding original patents on paper and printing as well as the widely used Chinese Remainder Theorem: The rest of the world is what is remaining and will be brought under the guiding light of autocratic rule. In the contemporary classic "Enemy of the State" the heavy opines that commerce and trade are the real theatre and thus we can take the foresight of the speaker as strategic.   Strategic in the sense that such business conferences are routinely viewed as non-trivial by business leaders.

{Gabriel Claramunt:} I think that's one of the causes of why Japan is so obsessed with robots.

I observe an intrinsic { in the nature of the thing } as the differentiating factor, something in the National Psyche. A bio-dynamic that is culturally based and biases the entertainment somewhat. Perhaps military movements prior to WWII did not bring technological avenues for exploitation of mechanistics - the postwar bias in entertainment being a consequence of The Quest For Excellence being deshackled from the restraining attenuator of poverty.

One of the most influential doctrines in history is that all humans are divided into groups called nations. It is an ethical and philosophical doctrine in itself, and is the starting point for the ideology of nationalism. Contemporary world views have melding - under the banner of diversity - as a clearly stated goal. Heavy per-capita rates of petra-depletion make a forcing approach the sucessful approach. Thus we can examine the response of a middle-class, independent of ideology or economy, vis-a-vis the response of an autocratic rule of law as an extension of the author's original effort.

Open dissent is the only countermeasure for unforseen blunder. Values of autocratic rule of law do not allow negative assesment to be expressed. Dwight Eisenhower provided open dissent, we could examine central trends and allowed dissent of Zhongguo zymologists. If the State Allows only a limited list of procedure, then we can assume as well that resume services are tightly controlled also. ( in the target region of the analysis ) Zealotous styles of wordsmith may facillitate Uncle Sam's graduates of the educational system.
Arvind Mahendra
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 14, 2007
Posts: 1162
Originally posted by Glen Cai:


Why not "The Emergence of INDIA"?


Because India is still considerably anti capitalist and has very real issues with keeping its political system "functioning". China on the other hand has the best of both worlds a capitalist economic system or atleast one that is pro capitalist with a centralized and virtually dissent free and highly efficient ruling structure. India also still is backwards in its approach to giving equal status to women. Women still haven't reached the status of equality that men have. If we are to assume that western civilization scaled great heights as a result of being capitalist, tolerant, liberal, individualistic, equal etc. Then India has miles and miles to go.
India will be home to the most number of billionaires in the near future but I suspect most of them will belong to particular bloodlines and as for the rest of India, it would be a little better than 'hanging on for dear life' as it is at present.


I want to be like marc
Eric Lemaitre
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 03, 2004
Posts: 538

Hi Glen,

Why not "The Emergence of INDIA"?

Because IMHO the author implicitely keeps a superpower point of view, for a global suppremacy purpose, despite of course considering some recent US achievements the term of "global suppremacy" is clearly arguable, but it remains the ultimate ideal goal from the author's point of view.

Achieving global suppremacy requires a sound leadership in 4 strategical fields:
_ demography
_ cultural
_ economics
_ military

The only real superpower which achieved more or less global suppremacy is USA for now, with China as clear nearest contender as it is already a superpower on all these points except military, but this one is growing very quickly. The economical studies of CIA estimate China will overwhelm USA as most powerful nation in the world around 2030, mainly in the economical field, so China is a real threat to USA.

But without offense, India is NO superpower, and doesn't need to be one anyway to be a major country in the economical field, since present importance for a country implies economical power, no longer military power. So Japan, Germany, India and Switzerland are all major countries in world despite they don't own big armies for anything else than self defense. But contrary to India China IS a real superpower which will threaten US suppremacy, this is why India is ignored, not by comtempt by any way, but only from the global suppremacy point of view.

Best regards.


Eric LEMAITRE
CNAM IT Engineer, MS/CS (RHCE, RHCX, SCJA, SCJP, SCJD, SCWCD, SCBCD, SCEA, Net+)
Free Online Tutorials: http://www.free-tutorials-online.net/
Nicholas Jordan
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Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 1282
Originally posted by Eric Lemaitre:

(...snip...)so China is a real threat to USA.


There is something I do not grasp in this....( the analysis and basis for examination - not in superpower rating scales ) almost every second on the day I am fed an almost hypno-sync feed of international / intercultural positioning of we are all alike and so on in exactly the frame of a non-hostile discussion.

A superpower, in exactly the frame of a hostile placement of giant radar dome floating in the ocean somewhere around the Aleutian Islands, can and does become a real threat to not only USA but India as well. Any Global Domination from Any Country becomes real and present threat to some indo-european cultures, as well as most any culture or country that can be described - some that aren't or are thinking they are not are just as much at risk for what we are talking about as is some regions which make no false promises about exactly the domination they have for US.

Some of these are idiots on the hill, some are adroit and accomplished wordmasters as well as skilled diplomats who recognize the value of trade as an equalizer on the world stage. I think the original speaker is correct in bringing to heel super-powers with super-power thought. The internet was supposed to make things better, and recognition of such by an authoritarian heel-clique should render ineffective the authoritarian heel-clique in any supra-national power, no matter missles or not.

The original poster brings religion to the bargaining table. Most world nations have some sort of religion, even a mix of them, as a part of the National Pride. I'll bet there is a state run religion in total power in China and if we could eliminate all religion, including the athiests who run a 'counter-claim' which is just more religion, maybe their military would suddenly be not so militant.

If you think this is way out there, remember Truth is stranger than Fiction. Any superpower is engaged in massive trade and commerce by mostly legal and diplomatic power points. If you read the actual history we find ourselves today making massive shifts on the basis of tribes that are long gone.

I do not grasp why we would get so screwed to the wall unless there is some secret cult driving the "we can only get oil from such and such country" story that we see fed to us by the media. For my own experience I know for a fact that any and all religion is a bunch of crap.
[ April 29, 2008: Message edited by: Nicholas Jordan ]
Glen Cai
Ranch Hand

Joined: Aug 24, 2002
Posts: 121
Originally posted by Nicholas Jordan:


You must be an IA


What does IA stand for?
Glen Cai
Ranch Hand

Joined: Aug 24, 2002
Posts: 121
Originally posted by Eric Lemaitre:
... with China as clear nearest contender as it is already a superpower on all these points except military, but this one is growing very quickly.
...


What about Russia? Its military is much stronger than China and its economy is recovering very quickly (thanks to oil).

Chinese military is mainly for self defense and is at the same level of (if not less than) India's because China even does not have an aircraft carrier. I do not think China is a threat to US in next 100+ years because China has so many internal problems: Taiwan, Tibet, social and political instability, population, ...

China did become more and more important in the past 20 years because US companies find a large low cost labor market in China. Many western capitalists shipped the jobs to China and made a lot of profits. The Chinese workers just got the jobs and are still very poor. So no worry about China. China is still under communist rule, but its leaders have abandoned communist ideology unofficially.

You may find this article interesting:
http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/1_leaders

Mark, I do not want to hijack this thread. Let's talk more on the other three topics.
[ April 29, 2008: Message edited by: Glen Cai ]
Nicholas Jordan
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 1282
Glen Cai:What about Russia? Its military is much stronger than China and its economy is recovering very quickly (thanks to oil).

What about the recent blows against the empire by the Ruskies? A synthesis of Byzantine and Slavic cultures, Ruskies control one eigth of the landmass. Oil, by common sense, would be avaiable in sufficient quantity to allow non-hostile rebuke by money. When money talks, nations walk.

Glen Cai:Chinese military is mainly for self defense and is at the same level of (if not less than) India's because China even does not have an aircraft carrier. I do not think China is a threat to US in next 100+ years because China has so many internal problems: Taiwan, Tibet, social and political instability, population, ...

Have you been reading Popular Mechanics?

Glen Cai:China did become more and more important in the past 20 years because US companies find a large low cost labor market in China. Many western capitalists shipped the jobs to China and made a lot of profits. The Chinese workers just got the jobs and are still very poor. So no worry about China. China is still under communist rule, but its leaders have abandoned communist ideology unofficially.

I met a graduate student from China, Civil E. My take on the discussion is an flatfile of those who work v those who don't. We have in the computer industry a large population of those who sit at desks all day long. Those people are, by precepting, indistinguishable from those ( any country, any culture ) who sit at the bench and mostly spew forth words.

You may find this article interesting: What do we do to make Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao's goals of moderation attainable.

Mark, I do not want to hijack this thread. Let's talk more on the other three topics. I am sure this is exactly what he had in mind.

What is an IA? That is gameing abbreviation. IA is the postal abbreviation for Iowa - means he sells corn in Khaz�d,or something.
[ May 03, 2008: Message edited by: Nicholas Jordan ]
Glen Cai
Ranch Hand

Joined: Aug 24, 2002
Posts: 121
Originally posted by Nicholas Jordan:

What do we do to make Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao's goals of moderation attainable.


Why us?

Originally posted by Nicholas Jordan:

IA is the postal abbreviation for Iowa - means he sells corn in Khaz�d,or something.

I think IA is much closer to INDIAna.
Nicholas Jordan
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 17, 2006
Posts: 1282
Four Major Reasons:
<DL>
<DT>The War in Iraq<DD>I am somewhat shy by nature, and this is a hotwire issue. Though in overview I dismiss third party candidates as driven by some deep force of an unimaginable mystery, I saw in the Libertarian's position paper an exposition of why and wherefore the deployment of heavy equipment for warmaking and an armada of people to operate it does not make sense. A person on my team gave a better explaination: Retaliation for personal familial matters made by the then leader when the military operation started. Simplified version is that somebody killed thousands of civilians as targets, something that has never happened in published reports.

Good question. For one thing, it is OP's second point of discussion under the general umbrella of jobs. I read on Wikki that the two names I cited are working out of the glare of media towards moderated progress. There is a time for moderation, a time for 'hotwire' but hot tempers are usually disruptive. I saw the work of moderation as an avenue to information.

 
<DT>The Emergence of China<DD> Why us? Because the facilitation of trade is served by such a moderating pair. There are dicey questions in that position such that any answer I give can be counter-claimed several ways. I googled for Glen Cai and decided you work for The Empire, probably at The Hexagon at Redmond. There were no pm or email links in your profile. I am not asking who and what your CV claims, I am asking where your soul is afire and where it is mushy with Meaningless Drivel. Tell me about your mind - tell me about your framework in which you would resond to my question. I don't give a hoot what you actually think, I just want to know how to respond.

 
<DT>Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization<DD> Original Poster: <EM>Are you sure you want to work this</EM>? Recently, I began working on ROT-13, the Chamber of Souls at the Temple of Khazad. There were some fierce and fiesty warriors there, keepers of the gate you might call them. The led me through Character.java - it was a tortured mindgame of 211,428 steps leading to The Megabyte Unihan. Others who have followed here have lost their sanity. I think it is funny to see them fry. It is an eternal battle in the fire of the soul.

 
<DT>Restructuring of American Business<DD> I think it is restructured already.
</DL>


Okay, Indiana Jones. Ever heard of the Smiths? An Empire in the making must get license from the Smiths. IJ is a latecomer.

[ May 03, 2008: Message edited by: Nicholas Jordan ]
[ May 10, 2008: Message edited by: Nicholas Jordan ]
 
It is sorta covered in the JavaRanch Style Guide.
 
subject: What In The World Is Going On? A Global Intelligence Briefing For CEOs