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Is this even possible?

John Dunn
slicker
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Joined: Jan 30, 2003
Posts: 1108
John Kerry getting elected as President?
With so many months to go, will the Dems biggies force him to the side??
(I bet Bush is hoping not...)


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Mapraputa Is
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Joined: Aug 26, 2000
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Reminds me my high school math class. A guy asked our teacher "is it possible that the solution is ..." . She answered solemnly: "everything is possible nowadays..."


Uncontrolled vocabularies
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Max Habibi
town drunk
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Joined: Jun 27, 2002
Posts: 4118
I'll bet there are people who wonder if George Bush can be: we'll find out soon enough.
M


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Max Habibi
town drunk
( and author)
Sheriff

Joined: Jun 27, 2002
Posts: 4118
Full disclosure: Given the title, I was hoping this would be question about the Kama sutra
M
[ April 27, 2004: Message edited by: Max Habibi ]
Kathy Sierra
Cowgirl and Author
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Joined: Oct 10, 2002
Posts: 1572
Doesn't the philosopher/scientist Michael Farraday have some kind of quote about this...
"Nothing is too wonderful to be true..."
But come to think of it, maybe he *was* talking about the Kama Sutra.
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
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Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Barring something coming to light that makes Kerry ineligible for the office, Kerry is the Democrats' candidate for president. I'm not sure who the Democrats would run in his place anyway.


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John Dunn
slicker
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Joined: Jan 30, 2003
Posts: 1108
Not quite T.P. They could get together and say, "Hey, Mr. Kerry, if you run we will pull all our support. Will you ~consider~ stepping aside? We feel you have no chance."
Hillary could step up. Would surprise me in the least if she got out of not having to campaign... How 'bout John Edwards?
IMHO, Kerry is going down.
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
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Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by John Dunn:
Not quite T.P. They could get together and say, "Hey, Mr. Kerry, if you run we will pull all our support. Will you ~consider~ stepping aside? We feel you have no chance."
And what happens when he says no? There is no way that they could pull their support because first, they would look like asses and second, no one would take seriously any candidate they put up.
Joe King
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Joined: Sep 02, 2003
Posts: 820
Originally posted by John Dunn:

Hillary could step up. Would surprise me in the least if she got out of not having to campaign...

I expect that she'll probably wait until next time. This election will probably be quite close. Bush has lost a lot of support through domestic policy, but while the war on terrorism is going on, he's still going to get the "patriotic vote". Being the presedent at a time when America went to war to respond to an attack gives Bush a good advantage - he can style himself as a war hero protecting the country. Even if Kerry wins, he's going to have a tough time ahead - his decisions concerning Iraq will be very hard to make - either he does the same as Bush and is ridiculed for not being different from the man he opposed, or he takes a different policy and is accused of being unpatriotic.
Next time around it'll be very different though. If Bush wins a second term then it will be far tougher than the first one. Momentum is beginning to go from the war on terrorism, and the opposition to Bush is likely to increase the longer that the troubles in Iraq continue. If things stay as bad as they are, by the time the next election comes along, it could well be no where near as close as this one, and Hillary can step in as "the saviour of America" etc etc. Even if Bush looses now, then Hillary would be better off waiting for Kerry to do the tough change-over term, and come in after him.
Jeroen Wenting
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Joined: Oct 12, 2000
Posts: 5093
Originally posted by Max Habibi:
Full disclosure: Given the title, I was hoping this would be question about the Kama sutra
M
[ April 27, 2004: Message edited by: Max Habibi ]

Who knows... Like someone else said, "everything is possible"
Can Kerry win? Yes he can. Given that there are 3 candidates the statistical chances of him winning are 1 in 3.
Given the makeup of the electorate the chances are more like 4 in 10 (with Bush having 4 in 10 as well and Nader the rest together with non-issue candidates who run only in one or two states).


42
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
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Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Nader has zero chance of winning. The question is strictly between Kerry and Bush.
Jeroen Wenting
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Joined: Oct 12, 2000
Posts: 5093
Doesn't matter, he's part of the equation. Question is how many votes he'll take away from which camp which might well decide who of the other candidates wins...
And stranger things have happened. We had a party here in the last elections (or was it the ones before that) who came from nothing and became 3rd largest of the country first time they took part in the elections.
Everyone had predicted they'd get one or two seats at most, not 25 or so...
Ernest Friedman-Hill
author and iconoclast
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Joined: Jul 08, 2003
Posts: 24184
    
  34

Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
We had a party here in the last elections (or was it the ones before that) who came from nothing and became 3rd largest of the country first time they took part in the elections.

We had that too. a few years back; Ross Perot's... what was it called? Reform Party? They got a governor elected in Minnesota, and old Ross made a good showing in the presidential race, something like 20%. But we've got a winner-takes-all kind of system. You don't get anything for coming in third. And so they've more or less faded away.


[Jess in Action][AskingGoodQuestions]
Thomas Paul
mister krabs
Ranch Hand

Joined: May 05, 2000
Posts: 13974
Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
And stranger things have happened. We had a party here in the last elections (or was it the ones before that) who came from nothing and became 3rd largest of the country first time they took part in the elections.
Everyone had predicted they'd get one or two seats at most, not 25 or so...

But the way elections are set up in the US, that can't happen. We have winner take all elections, not loser still gets a piece of the pie.
Suppose we have a three party election. My party gets 40% of the vote. Your party gets 39.99% of the vote. The remaining votes go to the third party. Guess what? I win and you get nothing.
And Nader will only be taking votes away from Kerry.
[ April 28, 2004: Message edited by: Thomas Paul ]
Jeroen Wenting
Ranch Hand

Joined: Oct 12, 2000
Posts: 5093
you should go back to the system you had originally.
In that system the loosing candidate would become vice president (and I guess if there were more than two candidates the rest would get positions also somewhere).
That would greatly curtail the mudslinging, after all you got to work with the guy for 4 years whether you win or not
 
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