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Avoid panic selling

shan Iyer
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Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
Markets will take a 'U' turn very shortly to steadly climb up to a 1 yr target of 14000. All selling should be avoided at this stage.


Warm Regards, S.Iyer
SCJP1.4, SCWCD1.4
Pradeep bhatt
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Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919



I am planning to buy RPL,ICICI Bank,IVRCL


Groovy
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
Cool

You could also go in for Satyam ,which is at a rock bottom of 664 and RCoVl which is at 282. Satyam looks extremely bullish with the bonus date coming closer. The same holds with RCoVL , with the merger of Reliance Infocomm about to happen very soon.

Enjoy
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

Originally posted by Shankar Iyer:
Cool

You could also go in for Satyam ,which is at a rock bottom of 664 and RCoVl which is at 282. Satyam looks extremely bullish with the bonus date coming closer. The same holds with RCoVL , with the merger of Reliance Infocomm about to happen very soon.

Enjoy


I am already holding RCoVL.I will accumulate more.
Arjunkumar Shastry
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 28, 2005
Posts: 986
How do you guys purchase/sell shares?online?or calling share brokers over the phone?


Namma Suvarna Karnataka
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

I am really worried now. I am losing more money.
Chetan Parekh
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Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Rambo Prasad, please say something.


My blood is tested +ve for Java.
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

If you are long term inverstor no worries. When market crossed 9000 it was over valued. People were putting money and stocks were going up. Market should stabilize aroung 9K points.I have already lost huge sum of money. I cant believe it.
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

Originally posted by Arjunkumar Shastry:
How do you guys purchase/sell shares?online?or calling share brokers over the phone?


Arjun, what are you doing in mumbai. Are you responisble for crash?
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

450 points down today. FII are running away with all our money.
Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
A my friend who got a tips told me that market will go up after 12:30, may be it will end with gain, but it will have marginal down in the index.
[ May 22, 2006: Message edited by: Chetan Parekh ]
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

good bye BULL.

I have given my shares to sell. no one is buying.
[ May 22, 2006: Message edited by: Pradip Bhat ]
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

CRASH IS COMPLETE - 1200 points down.

MARKET WILL REACH 3500 POINTS VERY SOON. I HAVE LOST ALL MY MONEY.
Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Trading in BSE and NSE suspended. Indexes touched the bottom circuits.
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
Thats why I have alaways stressed about trading discipline...Always trade with stop loss...

I have exited all my positions...All my scripts hit stop loss...My profits decreased ...but I did not make any loss... Shorted some scripts in the morning....That got me descent money..

Anyways let us watch and see what interesting thing happens...If you want to pick some good scripts dont buy everything in a single shot....Buy a little bit on every good dip because no one knows what the bottom is..


Helping hands are much better than the praying lips
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
I have decided to take some rest and concentrate on office work for some more days...Because in this kind of volatile session my BP shoots up and my office work is getting screwed up...

Will wait till things settle down...Anyways some good lessons learnt..
Manish Hatwalne
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 22, 2001
Posts: 2579

The trading has started again and with 10 mins prices are picking up and sensex has recovered over 600 points. I opend stock quote for ICICI at 520 and before I closed it, it was 543....in minutes. I wish I had more money to buy some good stocks now. Those who buy it now are going to laugh all the way to bank after 6 months.

- Manish
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
In 2000-2001, For most of the long term investors'/ short term traders' houses, cars, assets and most important confidence in this market could have been saved had they understood the importance of Stop Loss in HFCL, Silverline, DSQ Software etc.

No matter if you are a value investor, long term investor or short term trader, If you honour stop losses religiously, probability of heavy losses would be limited in this market. As we say - "Don't fall in love with any stock in this market, because, that stock may stop loving you anytime." The best example in todays time I can think of "Ranbaxy" - This is an excellent profit making, fundamentaly strong and investors friendly company for decades. But now time is not good for them. Market does not look for its fundamentals, but its future earning capabilities. Market in general is interested in future earning potential of a company. This only reflects in price of any stock, No matter what its past record had been.

Stop losses by TAs or investment advisors are suggested on some principles, that doesn't mean that if prices break that level, it won't go up, but that means that the short term opportunities to rise for the stock are very limited and in short term if price of a stock break the stop loss levels, its likely to fall more. If there is strength left in the stock, it will rise again, but for sake of safety of our capital we should exit from the stock and look for other opportunities. One more incidence happens with most of the long term investors, after seeing the peak prices for a stocks (say 1800 or 2000), when it quotes for 1500 or 1400, we dont sell thinking that it may climb again opto 2000, but that never happens and prices fall to 500 or below from 1500.

In 8 out of 10 cases it may happen that stock fall to your stop loss level, you exit and it rises again. At this point, if it rises you can enter again into same stock above the entry level if you want to. This will only give you a loss of a small portion of your capital but if stock is good, it will earn back again what you lost in it. BUT in 2 out of 10 cases, honouring stop loss religiously, these two stop losses will save most of your capital than you had been able to earn from 20 stocks. And If someone is investor/trader in FnO, more than his entire capital may be wiped out in just these 2 trades.
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
Nice Article about Trailing Stop loss wanted to share with you

A trailing stop loss is very similar to a stop loss, but where the
one kept your losses small, the trailing stop loss will enable your
profit growth. A trailing stop loss is calculated in a manner like the
way we calculated our initial stop loss. The only difference being
that while we calculated our stop loss from the entry price, we're
calculating our trailing stop loss from the highest price since entry.
The key to the trailing stop loss is that you need to continually make
adjustments to make sure that the stop is moved in your favor.

The method that you use to set your trailing stop loss can vary
dramatically. However, if we use the ATR method that we used to
calculate our initial stop to set our trailing stop loss, we'll have
the ability to lock in the profit as the share price increases.

For example, if you bought a share at one dollar, and your initial
stop was set at 90 cents, your trailing stop would also have a value
of 90 cents. If, after the first day, the share price moves in your
favor and moves to $1.10, you would recalculate your trailing stop
loss by subtracting two times the value of the ATR from the new high
price of $1.10. For simplicity, let's assume that your stop size
hasn't changed, and is still ten cents wide. When you calculate your
new trailing stop loss, by subtracting the 10 cents from $1.10, it
would be set at one dollar.

At this point, your initial stop was at 90 cents, and your trailing
stop loss is now at a dollar, with the share price is at $1.10. Since
your trailing stop loss is higher than your initial stop, the initial
stop becomes obsolete, and our trailing stop loss becomes your active
exit.
Now, my question is, "How much profit have you made on this trade?"
The share price is at $1.10 and we entered at one dollar. If you
thought, "No, I haven't made any money", then you'd be right on track.
Remember, our stop loss strategy gives the share price a little bit of
room to move.

You're not going to exit this position until the share price reverts
to one dollar. I'ts important to note that when you are valuing any
open position, you should always value it based on its stop loss
value, since if you were to exit this share, you would wait until that
price point was breached.

Let's go back to the example. Now, what happens if the share price
begins to fall? Let's say that the share price falls from $1.10 down
to $1.05. What does your trailing stop loss do? Would it move down
also? Here's another important point. A stop loss will never, ever
move down. A trailing stop loss can only move up. This ensures you
lock in profit and that you'll also get out of the shares once they
start to turn. A trailing stop loss is always calculated from the
highest price since entry, so the highest price is still $1.10.

It's not until the share price makes a new high since entry that the
trailing stop loss would begin to move in your favor again. However,
if you're using the ATR method, there's another way for our trailing
stop to move up. This would occur when the volatility of a stock
begins to decrease. If a share price were to begin to move sideways,
the ATR value would start to drop off. This would cause the trailing
stop to move up as the share price became less volatile.

The best way to understand these concepts is to print out a chart with
the ATR values along the bottom. Then on the chart, identify the point
where you would have received an entry signal, and mark your initial
stop loss and your trailing stop loss.
As the trend progresses make sure that you recalculate the value of
your stop so you can begin to get a feel for the way this method of
using a stop loss works Seeing how the changes in stock price affect
you trailing stop loss will give you the confidence to make them a key
part of your trading system.
Sridhar Garimella
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 18, 2000
Posts: 73
I want to enter into market now. What are the good scripts to buy(long term)?


Thanks,<br />Sridhar.
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

Originally posted by Sridhar Garimella:
I want to enter into market now. What are the good scripts to buy(long term)?


You should have entered when it fell by 1200 points.
S Venkatesh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jun 27, 2005
Posts: 464

I belive just seeing in short term results is not good. We have to always consider long term investments.
Pradeep bhatt
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 27, 2002
Posts: 8919

Originally posted by Venkatesh Sai:
I belive just seeing in short term results is not good. We have to always consider long term investments.


Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Originally posted by Pradip Bhat:
CRASH IS COMPLETE - 1200 points down.

MARKET WILL REACH 3500 POINTS VERY SOON. I HAVE LOST ALL MY MONEY.


You should listen to what poet Pradip said :

Hindi : Koi Lakh Kare Chaturai Karam Ka Lekh Mite Na Re Bhai
English: O Brother!! One does whatever tricks; still he has to face the fruits of his action

[ May 22, 2006: Message edited by: Chetan Parekh ]
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
RIL, ONGC and Infosys are some of the
strong stocks in this market. These stocks will rise first to take market
higher if at all market rises. But a cautious approach is required to trade
in these stocks.

Let RIL fall below 950 or even below 900 if it falls. Either buy RIL around
900 or above 950 with stop loss of 900 when it start moving up again.

Wish you good luck and Happy Trading.
Sameer Jamal
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 16, 2001
Posts: 1870
To all those who are investing your hard-earned money in the stock market.

Once upon a time in a village a man appeared who announced to the
villagers that he would buy monkeys for Rs.10. The villagers seeing
that there were many monkeys went out in the forest and started
catching them. The man bought thousands at Rs.10 and as supply started
to diminish and villagers started to stop their effort he announced
that now he would buy at Rs.20.

This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching
moneys again. Soon the supply diminished even further and people
started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to Rs.25
and the supply of monkeys became so that it was an effort to even see
a monkey let alone catch it.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at Rs.50! However,
since he had to go to the city on some business his assistant would
now buy on behalf of the man.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, "Look at
all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will
sell them to you at Rs.35 and when the man comes back you can sell it
to him for Rs.50."

The villagers queued up with all their saving to buy the monkeys.
Now villagers are still waiting for that man.
Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Good one!!
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
Sorry I dint have Internet access a few days and hence could not mail!!

Pradeep Bhat, why on earth did you ever do panic selling. Panic selling is worst and will only make you to regeret when prices agin go up. It has been again and again re-iterated that panic selling, that too for a loss, is a very foolish thing to do. Markets will surely pick up with the onset of good monsoons. I am sure that by July end , when the first quater results starts pouring in, we'll once again be at 12000. Please understand that this is only a cycle. A few of my scripts are also at a loss, but I am not booking my losses. In fact, I am not even booking my profits for some of the scripts which I am at a good profit now. Just hold on to your positions till July end , and you will surely come out with a decent profit. And always remeber that the share markets are extremely safe if your scripts are fundamentally sound enough.

There is a reason to worry only if you have invested in some lesser known weak scripts, also known as "Dharavi" scripts, which run ahead of their fundementals. Such positions have to be definitely exited, but otherwise there is no reason to worry at all.
[ May 23, 2006: Message edited by: Shankar Iyer ]
Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Originally posted by Shankar Iyer:
There is a reason to worry only if you have invested in some lesser known weak scripts, also known as "Dharavi" scripts, which run ahead of their fundementals.


As long as I know there is no term call �Dharavi Script�. Actually they called �Penny Script/Stock�.

Dharavi is the biggest slum in the world. It is also famous for it�s leather good.
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
As long as I know there is no term call �Dharavi Script�. Actually they called �Penny Script/Stock�.


Just pick up the previous issue of "Dalal Street" magazine and go through it.
Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Originally posted by Shankar Iyer:


Just pick up the previous issue of "Dalal Street" magazine and go through it.


It may possible that they have invented a new term. Otherwise I never came across someone speaking this term in any financial institutes (SE/DS/Broker/DP/CM/RTA)
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
It may possible that they have invented a new term. Otherwise I never came across someone speaking this term in any financial institutes (SE/DS/Broker/DP/CM/RTA)


Quite amazing that a "Mumbaikar" doesent know about this. Anyway, its widely used in the north, especially in Ahmedabad, which is the hub of retail investors
Chetan Parekh
Ranch Hand

Joined: Sep 16, 2004
Posts: 3636
Originally posted by Shankar Iyer:


Quite amazing that a "Mumbaikar" doesent know about this. Anyway, its widely used in the north, especially in Ahmedabad, which is the hub of retail investors


It may possible that in some area this world is very popular.
Rambo Prasad
Ranch Hand

Joined: Feb 23, 2006
Posts: 628
In money matters dont trust anyone..Be it the CNBC analyst or anyone...
Just wanted to share with you a nice write up regarding this....


Analysing analyst recommendations



RESEARCH analysts study publicly traded companies and make recommendations on the securities of those companies. Most specialise in a particular industry or sector of the economy. They exert considerable influence in today's marketplace. Analysts' recommendations or reports can influence the price of a company's stock � especially when the recommendations are widely disseminated through television appearances or through other electronic and print media. The mere mention of a company by a popular analyst can temporarily cause its stock to rise or fall � even when nothing about the company's prospects or fundamentals has recently changed.

Analysts often use a variety of terms � buy, strong buy, near-term or long-term accumulate, near-term or long-term over-perform or under-perform, neutral, hold � to describe their recommendations. But the meanings of these terms can differ from firm to firm. Rather than make assumptions, investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in each research report. They should also consider the firm's disclosures regarding what percentage of all ratings fall into either "buy," "hold/neutral," and "sell" categories.

While analysts provide an important source of information in today's markets, investors should understand the potential conflicts of interest analysts might face.

For example, some analysts work for firms that underwrite or own the securities of the companies the analysts cover. Analysts themselves sometimes own stocks in the companies they cover � either directly or indirectly, such as through employee stock-purchase pools in which they and their colleagues participate.

As a general matter, investors should not rely solely on an analyst's recommendation when deciding whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock. Instead, they should also do their own research � such as reading the prospectus for new companies or for public companies, the quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC � to confirm whether a particular investment is appropriate for them in light of their individual financial circumstances. This alert discusses the potential conflicts of interest analysts face and provides tips for researching investments.
Who analysts are and whom they work for

Analysts historically have served an important role, promoting the efficiency of our markets by ferreting out facts and offering valuable insights on companies and industry trends. Analysts generally fall into one of three categories:

Sell-side analysts typically work for full-service broker-dealers and make recommendations on the securities they cover. Many of the more popular sell-side analysts work for prominent brokerage firms that also provide investment banking services for corporate clients � including companies whose securities the analysts cover. Buy-side analysts typically work for institutional money managers � such as mutual funds, hedge funds, or investment advisers � that purchase securities for their own accounts. They counsel their employers on which securities to buy, hold, or sell and stand to make money when they make good calls.

Independent analysts typically are not associated with firms that underwrite the securities they cover.

They often sell their research reports on a subscription or other basis. Some firms that have discontinued their investment banking operations now market themselves as more independent than multi-service firms, emphasising their lack of conflicts of interest.
Potential conflicts of interest

Many analysts work in a world with built-in conflicts of interest and competing pressures. On the one hand, sell-side firms want their individual investor clients to be successful over time because satisfied long-term investors are a key to a firm's long-term reputation and success. A well-respected investment research team is an important service to customers.

At the same time, however, several factors can create pressure on an analyst's independence and objectivity. The existence of these factors does not necessarily mean that the research analyst is biased. But investors should take them into account before making an investment decision. Some of these factors include:

Investment banking relationships

When companies issue new securities, they hire investment bankers for advice on structuring the deal and for help with the actual offering. Underwriting a company's securities offerings and providing other investment banking services can bring in more money for firms than revenues from brokerage operations or research reports. Here is what an investment banking relationship may mean: The analyst's firm may be underwriting the offering � If so, the firm has a substantial interest � both financial and with respect to its reputation � in assuring that the offering is successful. Analysts are often an integral part of the investment banking team for initial public offerings � assisting with "due diligence" research into the company, participating in investor road shows, and helping to shape the deal.

Upbeat research reports and positive recommendations published after the offering is completed may "support" new stock issued by a firm's investment banking clients.

Client companies prefer favourable research reports � Unfavourable analyst reports may hurt the firm's efforts to nurture a lucrative, long-term investment banking relationship. An unfavourable report might alienate the firm's client or a potential client and could cause a company to look elsewhere for future investment banking services.

Positive reports attract new clients � Firms must compete with one another for investment banking business. Favourable analyst coverage of a company may induce that company to hire the firm to underwrite a securities offering. A company might be unlikely to hire an underwriter to sell its stock if the firm's analyst has a negative view of the stock.

Brokerage Commissions

Brokerage firms usually do not charge for their research reports. But a positive-sounding analyst report can help firms make money indirectly by generating more purchases and sales of covered securities � which, in turn, result in additional brokerage commissions.

What conflicts may mean to you

The fact that an analyst � or the analyst's firm � may have a conflict of interest does not mean that his or her recommendation is flawed or unwise. But it is a fact you should know and consider in assessing whether the recommendation is wise for you. It is up to you to educate yourself to make sure that any investments you choose match your goals and tolerance for risk. Remember that analysts generally do not function as your financial adviser when they make recommendations � they are not providing individually tailored investment advice, and they are not taking your personal circumstances into consideration.
Uncovering conflicts

In addition to paying close attention to the disclosures that firms and analysts make, here are some steps you can take to assess whether and to what extent analyst conflicts may exist:

Before you buy, confirm whether the analyst's firm underwrote a recommended company's stock by looking at the prospectus, which is part of the registration statement for the offering. Note that firms are required to disclose in research reports whether they managed or co-managed a public offering. You will find a list of the lead or managing underwriters on the front cover of both the preliminary and final copies of the prospectus. By convention, the name of the lead underwriter � the firm that stands to make the most money on the deal � will appear first, and any co-managers will generally be listed second in alphabetical order. Other firms participating in the deal will be listed only in the "Underwriting" or "Plan of Distribution" sections of the final supplement to the prospectus.
Unlock the mystery of `lock-ups'

If the analyst's firm acquired ownership interests through venture investing, the shares generally will be subject to a "lock-up" agreement during and after the issuer's initial public offering. Lock-up agreements prohibit company insiders � including employees, their friends and family, and venture capitalists � from selling their shares for a set period of time without the underwriter's permission. While the underwriter can choose to end a lock-up period early � whether because of market conditions, the performance of the offering, or other factors � lock-ups generally last for 180 days after the offering's registration statement becomes effective.

After the lock-up period ends, the firm may be able to sell the stock. If you are considering investing in a company that has recently conducted an initial public offering, you will want to check whether a lock-up agreement is in effect and when it expires or if the underwriter waived any lock-up restrictions.

This is important information because a company's stock price may be affected by the prospect of lock-up shares being sold into the market when the lock-up ends. It is also a data point you can consider when assessing research reports issued just before a lock-up period expires � which are sometimes known as "booster shot" reports.

To find out whether a company has a lock-up agreement, check the "Underwriting" or "Plan of Distribution" sections of the prospectus. That is where companies must disclose that information.

How you can protect yourself

We advise all investors to do their homework before investing. If you purchase a security solely because an analyst said the company was one of his or her "top picks," you may be doing yourself a disservice. Especially if the company is one you have never heard of, take time to investigate.

Above all, always remember that even the soundest recommendation from the most trust-worthy analyst may not be a good choice for you.

That is one reason we caution investors never to rely solely on an analyst's recommendation when buying or selling a stock. Before you act, ask yourself whether the decision fits with your goals, your time horizon, and your tolerance for risk. Know what you are buying � or selling � and why. ?
Ram kovis
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jun 23, 2005
Posts: 130
From Trash of India news paper...
Too much!!
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Sensex_hits_15K_tracks_Sachin_-_yet_again/articleshow/2183363.cms

MUMBAI: Is there a mystical relationship between Sachin Tendulkar�s one-day career and the sensex?

Consider this. Both began tentatively. Both stand at about 15,000 today. But for most of the intervening period, their form shares an inverse relationship with each other. When Sachin did well, the sensex faltered. When Sachin slumped, the sensex rocked.

When a 16-year-old Tendulkar scored his first ODI run on March 6, 1990, the sensex was just a four-year old toddler. On July 25, that year, a good monsoon and excellent corporate results saw the index touch 1,000 points for the first time. It coincided with a minor milestone for Sachin. His cumulative score after seven ODIs went past 100 to touch 116. From then on, it took the sensex some 16 months to touch the 2,000 mark on January 15, 1992. Sachin was just as tentative, having a total of 764 runs in that period.

Just 45 days later though, the sensex crossed 3,000 when Manmohan Singh announced his landmark budget. That was the time Sachin came close to breaching the 1,000 run barrier, his tally at 929.
David O'Meara
Rancher

Joined: Mar 06, 2001
Posts: 13459

Rambo: quote your sources or we have to delete them!
Better yet, you should post only the relevant part with a link to the article.
Copying articles from other site is against copyright rules.
Mark Spritzler
ranger
Sheriff

Joined: Feb 05, 2001
Posts: 17259
    
    6

Ram, why did you resurrect an over year old thread? I thought it meant something, but it is old news.

If you want to link to a new article or something, then post it in a new thread.

Thanks

Mark


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