Indian Market!!! oopssssssss going down

Whatever goes up for no reason must come down.

Part of Life huh..

Be Happy with what you have boss!

Same everywhere in the world. I thought I will buy a big car by selling shares but now I can only buy a cycle.

boss.....I have no money left.....I am so broke that I can't even pay attention!

Why just scream Indian markets? It is sort of the world market in general. I Would've started a thread titled 'explain the downfall' so I could make it market agnostic and at the same time learn from people around the world about why it happened, and what could one learn from it?

Thats Buddhist thought.

Herd Behavior

Stock prices are guesses about the future profitability of a company, as compared with guesses about the future profitability of alternate forms of investment.

Most investors don't have a clue as to how to evaluate such a thing, and even top economists can only make educated guesses. Therefore, we base our estimates on everybody else's (equally unfounded) estimates.

With such unpredictability, it's no wonder that people can swing wildly between optimism and pessimism, never knowing which is more appropriate until it's too late to do anything about it.

Basically, the stock market is for people who can afford to lose money (but who want the chance to get more), and for people who can afford to leave money invested over a long enough time to ride out the ups and downs.

Important lesson reinforced:Trade with stop loss or else don't trade.

I always used to trade with strict stop loss but last week was busy with some personal work and was a bit lethargic on the trading front so couldn't put stop losses...
I have suffered a big loss......Couldn't concentrate on work...Took 2 days off from office...Anyways on an optimistic note several painful lessons learnt which will be never forgotten again....
[ January 24, 2008: Message edited by: Rambo Prasad ]

Frank Silbermann :
Basically, the stock market is for people who can afford to lose money (but who want the chance to get more), and for people who can afford to leave money invested over a long enough time to ride out the ups and downs.

Yes you are right ! All volatility would get ironed out in the medium to long term and you would definitely make money with quality stocks , especially in the Indian market. Just got to have a perspective of a year or two.

Originally posted by Shankar Iyer:

Yes you are right ! All volatility would get ironed out in the medium to long term and you would definitely make money with quality stocks , especially in the Indian market. Just got to have a perspective of a year or two.

Or better yet, a 20 year perspective.

I lost my 30K because of market loss

Originally posted by Sunil Kumar Gupta:
I lost my 30K because of market loss

You must have got 60K when market went up to 20K. So why worry.

This is why Ive been recommending long term low yield bonds on every occasion. Specially here at MD but it appears few were listening.

Frank Silbermann:

Or better yet, a 20 year perspective.

Yes ! Harness the power of compounding.........

Indian Markets are continuing its falling spree...

It's becoming difficult to trade in the current market..Indian markets are now closely following the global markets...Every morning as soon as I get up I look at how Dow has closed..Then at 9.00 AM morning I look at how Hang Seng is doing..Then in the afternoon I look at Dax,Cac,Ftse european markets to get a clue of how markets will pan out for the rest of the day...
Every day some bad news seems to keep proping up...

Suddenly Indian growth story seems to have vanished into thin air and there is extreme pessimism all over...The bias seems to be more on the negative side..
Negative Clues:

--Govt Unstable

---Election could be soon because of the commies

--IIP Data Very bad

--Inflation figures bad

--Dollar Weakens agains Yen

--Crude high

--Precious Metals High...

--Low Volumes

--Sub Prime Crisis

-- Japan Growth in recession

--Company's Forex/Metal Hedging results not good

--Results Season ahead for the Financial Year

--Negative bias all over

Let us see where we are 1 month down the line....

[ March 13, 2008: Message edited by: Rambo Prasad ]

Dow has opened another 200 points down...I think nifty will again fall tomorrow....Good possibility of Nifty kissing 4400 and then ....

Anyways I have only short Futures position now...

Suddenly Indian growth story seems to have vanished into thin air and there is extreme pessimism all over...The bias seems to be more on the negative side..

Q4 numbers would be weak . Companies would show a QoQ decilne in profits , although YoY would be significantly higher . Q1 FY09 would however be strong. That would provide a case for market to rally . Expect new highs somehere during August this year . My year end target of 25000 Sensex still remains unchanged !
[ March 13, 2008: Message edited by: Shankar Iyer ]

Down again.

Originally posted by Prad Dip:
Down again.

Once market starts going up, its going to do so like Bazooka

And then, we might be fuming over the pace of the rise !

And dont buy too much into the words of so called *analysts* .They are paid to do their "bak bak" and sometimes to also misguide the public

.

They have a set of positive and negative reasons .

When markets fall , they project negative ones , namely:
inflation,crude,commodoties etc.

When markets go up , they project the positive ones:
high growth,domestic consumption "story" etc.

I am very close to making losses. One more day and ..

I think Nifty would kiss 4000 soon..
[ June 10, 2008: Message edited by: Rambo Prasad ]

I have already lost some money. :roll:

Originally posted by Shrikanth Karanth:
I have already lost some money. :roll:

You put money in FDs right

Originally posted by Prad Dip:
Down again.

Right time to invest. Nice article on the same topic:
A Positive Out of the Many Negatives
[ June 10, 2008: Message edited by: KJ Reddy ]

Originally posted by Prad Dip:
I am very close to making losses. One more day and ..

Do you trade in F&O ? If yes, it should be done as a full time job with lots of analysis and interaction with other F&O traders. Its usually done by retired people who have the time and money to spare.

Playing with F&O witihn the walls of your cubicle is hazardous.....

If your investments are for longterm like 3 to 4 years you need not worry if you invested ratinally, if you are doing on short term and to get the money out you are at loss i think it will be only couple of weeks or months before everything gets back again. People have been reacting rising Fuels costs...

Frank Silbermann:

Or better yet, a 20 year perspective.

20 year is a long time to be invested in one script. Some companies have life span of less than 10 years

Market up today.

Should I buy now

I would rather watch for another couple of days and if its an upward trend then there is definitely a buy on some good scripts like Bharti, Reliance.

you should have bought when market was down at lower price

Originally posted by Amit M Tank:
20 year is a long time to be invested in one script. Some companies have life span of less than 10 years

that's why funds are often a good idea. in the U.S. there are many funds that are tied to various benchmarks - like the DOW Jones or the S&P 500. as companies profits ebb and flow, the specific stock in the funds are re-allocated accordingly. low maintenance, low overhead, low fees. for the long term, it's generally considered a pretty wise investment.

I would assume the indian market has something similar.

Yes. Its called Mutual Fund. There are lots of Mutual Funds in India. US Companies like Fidelity and Franklin Templeton have also started some Mutual Funds in India. There are varios type of mutual funds(Equity Linked, bonds, etc) and one should assess the risk before investing into those mutual funds.

One thing to remember with all this talk of "losing money". You really don't gain or loose money until you sell. Selling when things are low guarantees a loss. Many "crashes" are followed by even higher highs based on what I've seen over the past 20-some years.

You really don't gain or loose money until you sell

Not really. Sometimes the companies can get delisted if the prices fall apart. Sometimes companies close down and all the investors lose money.

Originally posted by Amit M Tank:

Not really. Sometimes the companies can get delisted if the prices fall apart. Sometimes companies close down and all the investors lose money.

There are hundreds of Mutual funds and picking the right fund is not easy . Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. Funds even go bust when treading rough waters like whats happening now. Very few funds give a high return. I would always suggest anyone to directly jump into stocks and be the master of your own money rather than letting a stranger
handle it.
[ June 11, 2008: Message edited by: shan Iyer ]

what is it about money that everybody constantly think about money money money....I swea.....

Nifty has broken 4000..So what next ...?Anyways I think is the bottom is not far off and there is very strong support @3700-3800 zone...

[ July 01, 2008: Message edited by: Rambo Prasad ]

This is a good time to invest for long term players. I am planing to pump some amount in comming weeks. Just waiting for crude price to cross $150 and fall of Indian Govt.
[ June 30, 2008: Message edited by: Chetan Parekh ]