This week's book giveaways are in the Java EE and JavaScript forums.
We're giving away four copies each of The Java EE 7 Tutorial Volume 1 or Volume 2(winners choice) and jQuery UI in Action and have the authors on-line!
See this thread and this one for details.
The moose likes Meaningless Drivel and the fly likes Economic boom will come,when most unexpected! Big Moose Saloon
  Search | Java FAQ | Recent Topics | Flagged Topics | Hot Topics | Zero Replies
Register / Login


Win a copy of The Java EE 7 Tutorial Volume 1 or Volume 2 this week in the Java EE forum
or jQuery UI in Action in the JavaScript forum!
JavaRanch » Java Forums » Other » Meaningless Drivel
Bookmark "Economic boom will come,when most unexpected!" Watch "Economic boom will come,when most unexpected!" New topic
Author

Economic boom will come,when most unexpected!

shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
And I am a firm believer of this theory .
When everyone stops believing , stops predicting a recovery , stops being optimistic
and becomes an hard core pessimist , that'll mark the begining of the next economic boom.
I dont mean a zero/negligible recovery , as is happening now , but a massive boom like the 2003-2007 period , or may be even bigger. And by the time we realize , we'll be right in the middle of one .

Because history has proven time and again that swings of such draconian magnitudes, on either side , be it the in the stock markets or the economy , always happen when least expected !


Warm Regards, S.Iyer
SCJP1.4, SCWCD1.4
Henry Wong
author
Sheriff

Joined: Sep 28, 2004
Posts: 18757
    
  40


*** Side note -- because OP posted a duplicate topic ***

In thinking about it a bit more, it may be better to bump this topic, than to have a duplicate topic. So...

The other topic (duplicate) will be deleted. Use this topic instead.

Henry


Books: Java Threads, 3rd Edition, Jini in a Nutshell, and Java Gems (contributor)
Henry Wong
author
Sheriff

Joined: Sep 28, 2004
Posts: 18757
    
  40

BTW, the "experts" are predicting recovery. Some as early as 2010. Based on your theory does this mean the recovery won't happen til much later, when the experts don't think we will recover? Or do you mean the boom will happen when the experts stops predicting recovery, because every thinks we have recovered?

Henry
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
IMHO, nobody has ever correctly predicted financial booms/crisis in the history of financial markets. These things don't work according to logic.
A logic can be drawn only after the event .
These are black swan events , very difficult to predicted, occurs when least expected and
made to look obvious by "experts" after its occurrance.
IMHO, the next boom will also tread on the borders of being a black swan , if not a full black swan . Maybe a grey swan .
A sector, completely unkown now, might take the charge and lead the next boom. Technology might not lead . You'll then have people scrambling to get into that sector,
like what happened in IT in the 90s. The boom might be of a magnitude unheard of before . Massive and enormous , dwarfing the previous booms .
May be a boom might never happen for a hundred years and we might suddenly find ourselves in the midst of a third world war . I am somehow convinced that its not going to be on the lines of the previous boom .
Anyone close to a correct prediction and taking steps accordingly (taking up work in correct sector or buying stocks which are dirt cheap now but might become another google later on) is going to very rich.
Maneesh Godbole
Saloon Keeper

Joined: Jul 26, 2007
Posts: 10268
    
    8

There is no problem with the economy. It is just a conspiracy on the employers part to exploit the employees.
The companies are trying to hoodwink us. Let us not fall for that trap.


[How to ask questions] [Donate a pint, save a life!] [Onff-turn it on!]
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
What I mean is the 90's or the 03-06 kind of a runaway boom .
tapeshwar sharma
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 10, 2006
Posts: 245
Given my limited mental capabilities, the supplied wikipedia article about Black Swan seems self-contradictory.
First it is said that the "Black Swan" event is something totally unpredicted.And then it is said:
...hence his idea is to "avoid being the turkey" by finding out where one may be exposed to being a turkey ...

The moment you predict and plan for its prevention, it is no more unpredicted.It is no more the so-called "Black Swan".
I mean how do you predict and prepare for something as unpredictable as the Personal Computer?
shan Iyer
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 13, 2005
Posts: 391
May be he means unpredictable for a vast majority .
Taleb reportedly earned an hedge millions in profit in the 2008 stock market crash,
as an advisor to the fund, using his black swan theory.

I have just got hold of that book "The Black Swan", and every line from the very first page just whizzes past over my head , like a 100 mph bullet . Its way too rich in langauge and content .

His earlier book , "Fooled by randomness" was just like a primer to the whole concept of randomness and biases, but black swan is way too rich in content, since it deals with the origins of taleb's thought process, how he became a probabilist and the events that influenced his thinking.

Taleb is a genius , one of his kind, transcending all boundaries !
 
wood burning stoves
 
subject: Economic boom will come,when most unexpected!