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best strategy to win in casino

ankur rathi
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A friend of mine says that in Roulette - 38 numbers (1 to 36, 0 & 00) - place two bets on two of these three blocks: 1-12, 13-24, 25-36 e.g. 5$ on 1-12 & 5$ on 25-36.

If you place your bet on any of these three blocks (1-12, 13-24, 25-36) and you win, you get 3 times what you bet for.

Now with the above strategy, probability of winning is 66% and loosing is 33% - just ignoring 0 & 00. If ball comes in block you chose to bet, you get 15$ for the bet of 10$.

Looks good.

Paul Sturrock
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As I understand it the most sure fire way to win in a casino is to own the casino.


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fred rosenberger
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  16

What, exactly, looks "good" about this?

the 'dozens' bet pays 3-for-1, or 2-to-1 (it's the same thing, just said differently to confuse you). If you bet $1 and win, they give you an additional $2, for a total of 3.

Your strategy would not work. even if you 'ignore the 0 and 00', your best case is to come out even.

1/3 of the time, the ball will land on 1-12. you win $10 on that bet, and lose $5 on your 13-24 bet, netting you $5.

1/3 of the time, the ball will land on 13-24. you loose $5 on the 1-12 bet, and win $10 on your 13-24 bet, netting you $5.

1/3 of the time, the ball will land on 25-36. You loose your two best, thus loosing $10.

add these up, and you have won: nothing.

Now the kicker comes in. You can't really ignore the '0' and '00', since they DO come up - about 1/38th of the time each (imagine that). When it comes up, you AGAIN loose your $10.

it's a loosing game, no matter what 'system' you use.

your best chance of making the most money on roulette is to place ALL your money on red or black. Then, win or loose, you quit for the day.


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fred rosenberger
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  16

Here's the simplest way I've found to explain why you don't win in a casino. Imagine we were going to flip a coin. Every time it's heads, I win. Every time it's tails, you win.

When I win, you give me a dollar. When you win, I give you 95 cents.

Bert Bates
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    5
I've heard that if you really, really, really understands craps, which I don't, you can keep your money longer than with most other casino games.

I've also heard that if you can "count cards" you can actually get a slight edge on the casino in blackjack. I've also heard that the casinos are very diligent about looking for, and ousting, card counters.

What's not clear to me is how poker at a casino works - I assume that the casino takes a cut, but it would seem that if you're the best poker player you can make money, even after the casino's cut. Is that true?


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Vikas Kapoor
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Do Casino do any kind of tricks(cheats) so that you don't win so frequently and at the end they(casino) make the money?
Steve Luke
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  21

Bert Bates wrote:I've heard that if you really, really, really understands craps, which I don't, you can keep your money longer than with most other casino games.

I've also heard that if you can "count cards" you can actually get a slight edge on the casino in blackjack. I've also heard that the casinos are very diligent about looking for, and ousting, card counters.

What's not clear to me is how poker at a casino works - I assume that the casino takes a cut, but it would seem that if you're the best poker player you can make money, even after the casino's cut. Is that true?


Yeah, generally with poker you can win money if you are good. But you don't win the casino's money, you win the other player's money. The casino takes a cut (usually a small fixed sum from each pot). They don't put any stakes in so poker for the casino is a 0 risk game - they always make money and never lose a penny. For the player, if you are better than some of the other players, then you can make money.

Steve
marc weber
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You can't lose!


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Ankit Garg
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  17

The best way to win (according to me) is to develop your own casino game (that way you own that casino Paul said but with lesser investment)...


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Ryan McGuire
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Joined: Feb 18, 2005
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    3
Level 1 Myth: There are betting strategies that can beat the casinos at independent outcome games, where the outcome of one event has no effect on the the next outcome, that have a positive expected value.

No no no! There is no combination of simultaneous bets or strategy of serial bets that has an average positive expected payback value. You can play the "Iron Cross" be in Craps or use the Martingale system for Roulette. Those systems might make you a small profit 90% of the time. But the other 10% of the time you lose more than enough to wipe out the profit from the other 90%.

Level 2 Myth: Since there is no system with a positive expected value, then everyone is going to lose all their money every time they step foot inside a casino.

No. On average and/or in the long run you will tend to lose money. However for a couple hours of Craps (lowest house advantage) the odds about 70/30 that you'll lose money, depending on the bets you make. It all depends on your bet size, the number of bets per hour, the length of time you're there. Case in point: Over about six hours spread out over a number of days for my honeymoon in Vegas, I walked away from the Craps tables with a $10 profit. Luckiest week of my life.

Some other things:
Casinos are making it harder to count cards in Blackjack. They use more decks (6-8) and reshuffle more often.
The Don't Pass and Don't Come bets in Craps offer the best odds in the casino. Too bad some players think it's impolite to bet against the shooter (Don't Pass). That's fine, the Pass line is almost as good. It has a mere 1.41% house advantage. I could go on for hours about Craps, but I'll leave let it go for now. If anyone asks, I can explain why laying odds does NOT really change the house advantage of Pass/Come, contrary to popular belief.

fred rosenberger
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  16

Bert Bates wrote:I've heard that if you really, really, really understands craps, which I don't, you can keep your money longer than with most other casino games.

yes and no. Played correctly, craps does have the bets with the smallest house advantage. However, craps moves VERY fast. it's easy to get a LOT of money on the table. with a minimum $5 line bet, to get the best odds, you need to then put down an additional bet to back it up. I have had as much as $300 on the table, and all that can go on one roll of the dice. (Note: I don't go and gamble thousands of dollars. We were on a long, hot streak, and each time a bet won, i'd use some of my earnings to 'press' it up).

My best craps day: I won $500 in two hours.
My worst craps day: I lost $200 in about 12 minutes.

Bert Bates wrote:I've also heard that if you can "count cards" you can actually get a slight edge on the casino in blackjack. I've also heard that the casinos are very diligent about looking for, and ousting, card counters.
Card counting simply lets you know when the deck has a lot of 10's left in the shoe, which is advantageous to the player. When this happens, the player should make large bets (which can still lose). When the deck has fewer 10's, the player makes small bets.

With multiple decks, it's seldom you will see a big enough swing in the 'ten count' to make much difference. Casinos also reshuffle before going too deep into the deck to prevent such swings, and watch for strange betting patterns. They can and will bar you if they suspect you of card counting. While it is not illegal to card count, Casinos are all private property and have every right to bar anyone they want, for whatever reason.

Bert Bates wrote:What's not clear to me is how poker at a casino works - I assume that the casino takes a cut, but it would seem that if you're the best poker player you can make money, even after the casino's cut. Is that true?
true, but you'll never make much money. plus, it's really and truly a grind - you don't make much money per hour, and you have to play a lot. you can't drink, you have to pay attention to what everyone is doing all the time (i.e. it's not fun and games), and you're always at risk of losing your stake.
fred rosenberger
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  16

Vishal Pandya wrote:Do Casino do any kind of tricks(cheats) so that you don't win so frequently and at the end they(casino) make the money?

no - they don't have to. At least in the U.S., casinos are pretty tightly regulated. if they are caught cheating, the fines can be astronomical. Casinos realized a long time ago that while they might make a quick buck by cheating now, they'll make MORE money by playing fair.

A Casino that cheats will soon earn a reputation for cheating, and people will stop going. They'd rather take 5% of every bet for years than 100% of a single bet made once.
fred rosenberger
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  16

Steve Luke wrote:poker for the casino is a 0 risk game - they always make money and never lose a penny.
Not quite true. They have to pay the various employee's salaries, buy equipment, maintain the facility, etc. An empty table is cost them something...

Christophe Verré
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  16

Here is the best strategy.


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Bear Bibeault
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  67

Or...


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ankur rathi
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fred rosenberger wrote:What, exactly, looks "good" about this?

the 'dozens' bet pays 3-for-1, or 2-to-1 (it's the same thing, just said differently to confuse you). If you bet $1 and win, they give you an additional $2, for a total of 3.

Your strategy would not work. even if you 'ignore the 0 and 00', your best case is to come out even.

1/3 of the time, the ball will land on 1-12. you win $10 on that bet, and lose $5 on your 13-24 bet, netting you $5.

1/3 of the time, the ball will land on 13-24. you loose $5 on the 1-12 bet, and win $10 on your 13-24 bet, netting you $5.

1/3 of the time, the ball will land on 25-36. You loose your two best, thus loosing $10.

add these up, and you have won: nothing.

Now the kicker comes in. You can't really ignore the '0' and '00', since they DO come up - about 1/38th of the time each (imagine that). When it comes up, you AGAIN loose your $10.

it's a loosing game, no matter what 'system' you use.

your best chance of making the most money on roulette is to place ALL your money on red or black. Then, win or loose, you quit for the day.


Hmmm... you are right, technically.

But in a single round (spin), still the winning probablity is more, isn't it?
ankur rathi
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fred rosenberger wrote:Here's the simplest way I've found to explain why you don't win in a casino. Imagine we were going to flip a coin. Every time it's heads, I win. Every time it's tails, you win.

When I win, you give me a dollar. When you win, I give you 95 cents.



Accepted.

You can think it like 5 cents you spent on entertainment.
ankur rathi
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Christophe Verré wrote:Here is the best strategy.


I have seen 10 consecutive red, once, and people were betting & loosing like anything on black each time. There is no relation between two spins (one number & following number).
Hussein Baghdadi
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The house always wins ...
fred rosenberger
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  16

ankur rathi wrote:Hmmm... you are right, technically.

But in a single round (spin), still the winning probablity is more, isn't it?

No. You can calculate the "expected value" for any independent event (i.e. blackjack is NOT independent events, since the deck changes after each hand, whereas the roulette wheel/ball have no idea what happened before).

You take the probability of an event happening, multiply it by it's payout, and then add all those up.

12/38 times you hit your 1-12 bet, and win $5 ($10 for winning less $5 for your losing bet). That has an expected value of $1.58.

12/38 times you hit your 13-24 bet, and win $5 ($10 for winning less $5 for your losing bet). That has an expected value of $1.58.

14/38 times you will loose your $10. That has an expected value of $-3.68.

$1.58 + $1.58 - $3.68 = $-0.52

That's an expected loss of $0.52 on every $10 bet.
fred rosenberger
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  16

ankur rathi wrote:I have seen 10 consecutive red, once, and people were betting & loosing like anything on black each time. There is no relation between two spins (one number & following number).

So you saw 10 reds in a row. The 'scoreboard' only shows so many. How do you know that the previous 100 weren't black? The wheel doesn't somehow 'remember' what it did for ONLY the past 10 spins. Maybe the wheel remembers the past 1000 spins. or hte past 100,000. Maybe after spinning 10 red in a row, the wheel is now 'restored' back to having equal black and red, so now we're back at 50/50.

Or maybe the wheel has NO FRIKIN' IDEA what it did in the past, so the next roll will be random.
ankur rathi
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fred rosenberger wrote:
ankur rathi wrote:Hmmm... you are right, technically.

But in a single round (spin), still the winning probablity is more, isn't it?

No. You can calculate the "expected value" for any independent event (i.e. blackjack is NOT independent events, since the deck changes after each hand, whereas the roulette wheel/ball have no idea what happened before).

You take the probability of an event happening, multiply it by it's payout, and then add all those up.

12/38 times you hit your 1-12 bet, and win $5 ($10 for winning less $5 for your losing bet). That has an expected value of $1.58.

12/38 times you hit your 13-24 bet, and win $5 ($10 for winning less $5 for your losing bet). That has an expected value of $1.58.

14/38 times you will loose your $10. That has an expected value of $-3.68.

$1.58 + $1.58 - $3.68 = $-0.52

That's an expected loss of $0.52 on every $10 bet.


I already agreed on this.
What my point is, which block gives you "some" returns & has less risk?
You could put 1 chip on black & 1 on red (or 1 on even & 1 on odd) and your winning probability is 100% but you don't win "anything".

I am again ignoring 0 & 00, I know. As they are there for every bet (red, black, even, odd or any numer).
ankur rathi
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fred rosenberger wrote:

Or maybe the wheel has NO FRIKIN' IDEA what it did in the past, so the next roll will be random.


That's what my point is.
fred rosenberger
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  16

ankur rathi wrote:What my point is, which block gives you "some" returns & has less risk?
You could put 1 chip on black & 1 on red (or 1 on even & 1 on odd) and your winning probability is 100% but you don't win "anything".

I am again ignoring 0 & 00, I know. As they are there for every bet (red, black, even, odd or any numer).

My point is that there is NONE that has less risk.

Ok, techincally, that's not true. There is something called the "five number bet". You bet on 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. it pays out 6 to 1, and the odds are 6.6 to 1. The expected value is -7.9%, whereas every other bet on the table has an expected value of -5.3%.

So, there is one bet that gives you slightly worse odds, and all the rest it doesn't matter. Every time you put a dollar on the table, you can expect to lose 5.3 cents. It doesn't matter if you bet $1, or $1000, you should expect to loose 5.3 EVERY TIME.
Ryan McGuire
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    3
John Todd wrote:The house always wins ...


No, the house wins on average.
Pat Farrell
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    5

Ryan McGuire wrote:
John Todd wrote:The house always wins ...


No, the house wins on average.


More carefully, the house doesn't care if you win today, they even like it. Because over time, the house gets its cut, and over time, they always take in more than they pay out.
Joe Harry
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    2

Paul Sturrock wrote:As I understand it the most sure fire way to win in a casino is to own the casino.


Absolutely!


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