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Who is the luckiest guy on the ranch?

Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 09, 2007
Posts: 426
Hi,

Who is the luckiest guy on the Ranch?

I have been trying the state lottery for 8 years now but the highest that I have won so far is 50$.
(P.S I converted that to dollar..so do your math.. )

I am getting .. when will I win the jackpot?

I am curious if somebody has far greater win than what I have?

On the other hand.. I joined the ranch on 2007 and I managed to win Free Book thrice? I am that lucky here I think...
I bet somebody has won several times.

To Sum Up:
State Lottery = 50$
Javaranch Book Promo = 3

Whats your's buddy?


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Me ------> I definitely love this place!!!
Bear Bibeault
Author and ninkuma
Marshal

Joined: Jan 10, 2002
Posts: 61447
    
  67

Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.


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Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 09, 2007
Posts: 426
Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.



lol...

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Deepak Bala
Bartender

Joined: Feb 24, 2006
Posts: 6662
    
    5

It has to do with probabilities. The probability that you will win a state lottery is 1 : (several hundred thousands). The probability that you will win a book at JR is 1 : (several hundreds). You are more probable to win a book than win a lottery.

If you want better odds, you can always rob a bank. You will get a lot of money, but there is the reduced probability of you making it out alive ;)


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Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 09, 2007
Posts: 426

If you want better odds


Speaking of Odds.. it seems that the odds is never in my favor for some time?
Jesper de Jong
Java Cowboy
Saloon Keeper

Joined: Aug 16, 2005
Posts: 14278
    
  21

Last year I won twice: € 260 and € 100. A ticket for the lottery costs € 15, so that's enough to play for free for 2 years. This month I won € 7,50, only half of what a ticket costs.

My parents have been playing in the same lottery for 40 years or so but never won as much as I did last year...


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Joanne Neal
Rancher

Joined: Aug 05, 2005
Posts: 3720
    
  16
Mark Reyes wrote:I have been trying the state lottery for 8 years now but the highest that I have won so far is 50$.
(P.S I converted that to dollar..so do your math.. )

To do the math we need to know what sort of dollars you converted to - Australian, Canadian, Carribean. There are probably other countries that use dollars as well.


Joanne
Mark Reyes
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jul 09, 2007
Posts: 426
To do the math we need to know what sort of dollars you converted to - Australian, Canadian, Carribean. There are probably other countries that use dollars as well.



...ooops my bad.. its American Dollar...

My parents have been playing in the same lottery for 40 years or so but never won as much as I did last year...


I hope I wont wait this long....
fred rosenberger
lowercase baba
Bartender

Joined: Oct 02, 2003
Posts: 11441
    
  16

Bear Bibeault wrote:Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.

See...I disagree with this. I play the lottery, but only when the expected value is over the price of the ticket. I think I understand math very well.


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dennis deems
Ranch Hand

Joined: Mar 12, 2011
Posts: 808
fred rosenberger wrote:
Bear Bibeault wrote:Lottery, a tax on people who are bad at math.

See...I disagree with this. I play the lottery, but only when the expected value is over the price of the ticket. I think I understand math very well.

What do you mean by "expected value"?
Ernest Friedman-Hill
author and iconoclast
Marshal

Joined: Jul 08, 2003
Posts: 24187
    
  34

Dennis Deems wrote:
What do you mean by "expected value"?


Basically it's the probability of winning times the size of the jackpot, less the cost of the ticket. If your chances of winning are one in a million, but the jackpot is three million, then the expectation value is ($3,000,000/1,000,000) - $1 = $2. That's a worthwhile bet. It also doesn't happen much.


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Hussein Baghdadi
clojure forum advocate
Bartender

Joined: Nov 08, 2003
Posts: 3479

Try Pitcairn Island lottery. Your odds are 1/50
Greg Charles
Sheriff

Joined: Oct 01, 2001
Posts: 2854
    
  11

  • I've won the book promotion twice in my decade here.
  • I think I won two dollars in the California lottery when it was new (30 years ago). I haven't really played since then.
  • My mom won a car CD player as a door prize once, and gave it to me. (That counts right?)
  • I know how to spell possessive pronouns like yours, hers, its, ...
  • Mike Simmons
    Ranch Hand

    Joined: Mar 05, 2008
    Posts: 3018
        
      10
    Ernest Friedman-Hill wrote:
    Dennis Deems wrote:
    What do you mean by "expected value"?


    Basically it's the probability of winning times the size of the jackpot, less the cost of the ticket. If your chances of winning are one in a million, but the jackpot is three million, then the expectation value is ($3,000,000/1,000,000) - $1 = $2. That's a worthwhile bet. It also doesn't happen much.

    The calculation also needs to consider (a) the effect of income tax on that payoff, and (b) the possibility that the payoff will be split among N other people who also picked the same numbers (or whatever the lottery mechanism is). The chances of this are somewhat low normally, but it's more likely to happen when there's a really high payoff, which draws many more players than you'd normally see. So even when the expected payoff supposedly justifies the ticket cost, it probably doesn't.
    Ernest Friedman-Hill
    author and iconoclast
    Marshal

    Joined: Jul 08, 2003
    Posts: 24187
        
      34

    Who is the luckiest person on the Ranch? Well, I married my wife.
    Mark Reyes
    Ranch Hand

    Joined: Jul 09, 2007
    Posts: 426
    Who is the luckiest person on the Ranch? Well, I married my wife.


     
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