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After 100 Years

Sabarish Venkat
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Joined: Jan 18, 2012
Posts: 136

Some times i used to think of after 100 years where this programming will be in general. Would we achieved all the solutions we need or still we keep on developing something.
Campbell Ritchie
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Joined: Oct 13, 2005
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  22
Do you mean would we still be suffering programming errors?
Sabarish Venkat
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jan 18, 2012
Posts: 136

not alone on errors am saying from developing to debugging
fred rosenberger
lowercase baba
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Joined: Oct 02, 2003
Posts: 11161
    
  16

well...we've been writing stories and printing books for hundreds of years, and people still make spelling/grammar/logic/continuity errors in their stories. We still have editors (i.e. people) who review every word.

Why would programming be any different?


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Jesper de Jong
Java Cowboy
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Joined: Aug 16, 2005
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  16

When my father started working in 1968 or so, as a COBOL programmer, some people told him that it was a bad idea, because in a few years computers would become so good that programmers wouldn't be necessary anymore. A business person could just "ask" the computer to do whatever was necessary.

That idea of the future still seems just as far away today as it was in 1968.


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Sabarish Venkat
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Joined: Jan 18, 2012
Posts: 136

what makes me to think so is we have developed programming in all areas and in most of them we are not creating any new things just repeating the applications in different way with rectifying errors thats it.
Jeanne Boyarsky
internet detective
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Joined: May 26, 2003
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150

Think about the things that didn't exist 10 years ago, let alone 100: twitter, instagram, etc. There are certainly new products out there. There are also technical challenges that haven't been conquered like dealing with ever expanding sizes of data. Even for a "boring" application, there are challenges in making it more efficient.


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Ernest Friedman-Hill
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Joined: Jul 08, 2003
Posts: 24183
    
  34

Slashdot has a story related to this today. The point being made there is that we perhaps need a new career path for the sort of turn-the-crank programming that it seems Sabarish Venkat is concerned about. But there's more to programming than that! Although the nature of the code we write may change significantly, it seems unlikely that the need for human developers will disappear in the foreseeable future, because the need for creativity will remain.


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William P O'Sullivan
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Joined: Mar 28, 2012
Posts: 860

Parallel and multi-core engines are what's going to change everything.

Back in the "COBOL" days, the program started, then "end run" in sequence, primarily batch, then CICS/IMS etc.

When you can have 64, 128 or even 256 cores cranking at 2+Ghz on the same task, now we're talking power!

Of course, programming will have to adapt. I can't have my 256 cores doing the same thing or bottlenecking.
It's a rethinking solving problems.

It's going to be fun!

WP
chris webster
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Joined: Mar 01, 2009
Posts: 1621
    
  13

Jesper de Jong wrote:When my father started working in 1968 or so, as a COBOL programmer, some people told him that it was a bad idea, because in a few years computers would become so good that programmers wouldn't be necessary anymore. A business person could just "ask" the computer to do whatever was necessary.

That idea of the future still seems just as far away today as it was in 1968.

I remember in around 1981 hearing on BBC radio about "The Last One", a program generator that would (allegedly) make all other computer programs - and programmers - obsolete:

If there is such a person as a program coder, and I have heard of one, then he is going to have to change his job - perhaps running The Last One on behalf of the analysts. The analyst/programmer should welcome this development because it means that he can spend more time on ideas and less on tedious coding and debugging. System designers should be overjoyed because it means they can implement their ideas in the way they want to without necessarily having to use the services of a programmer.
...
In Scotty's words [NB: Scotty Bambury was one of the developers, not the guy from Star Trek, sadly]: `We now have the chance to put the computer industry right and get it running like a proper business'. And he's right. This development marks the end of the unwitting tyranny of the computer industry. Users will now be able to treat computers as tools rather than as parasites which is often the way they've been regarded in the past.


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Pat Farrell
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Joined: Aug 11, 2007
Posts: 4646
    
    5

Consider the automobile. In 1912, the self starter was brand new and available only on the most expensive brands.

In the 1960s, when I was a teenager, you had to learn about how a car worked because the cars that teenagers drove were really bad cars that broke down all the time. You had to fix them to keep them running.

I just got a new car, I had the old one for 7 years. I never opened the hood of it. I never changed a tire. I don't think I ever even checked the tire pressure. I took it to the dealer every 6,000 miles for oil changes, and did nothing else.

In the 60s, there were lots of people earning a living fixing cars. Now, not so much. Cars are so much more reliable (in addition to making less pollution and using less fuel) that professionals from the 60s won't recognize the business.

Sure, in 100 years, there will be programmers, but you can bet a lot of money that they won't be using Java.
chris webster
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Joined: Mar 01, 2009
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  13

Pat Farrell wrote:Sure, in 100 years, there will be programmers, but you can bet a lot of money that they won't be using Java.

No, but they'll still be maintaining 1960s COBOL systems though!
Pat Farrell
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Joined: Aug 11, 2007
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    5

chris webster wrote:No, but they'll still be maintaining 1960s COBOL systems though!


I haven't looked at COBOL in 20+ years, but back then, there were no modern languages that had the key features for dealing with money
the way COBOL does. None of the OO languages have a Money data type, none do arithmetic nearly as cleanly as Grace Hopper's invention.
Sabarish Venkat
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jan 18, 2012
Posts: 136

@ Ernest: I just read out the link you gave. .
Slashdot has a story related to this today.
What i feel for a long days that has resembled there...

Of course if the ratio of computer science grads keep on increasing (even the need is there) so at some other day if the ratio of programmers are more and we dint find a path for a new way of technology what will be the result that time.
Jesper de Jong
Java Cowboy
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Joined: Aug 16, 2005
Posts: 14074
    
  16

Pat Farrell wrote:None of the OO languages have a Money data type, ...

That doesn't mean anything about the quality of those languages. You can make your own Money data type or use an existing library.
chris webster
Bartender

Joined: Mar 01, 2009
Posts: 1621
    
  13

Pat Farrell wrote:
chris webster wrote:No, but they'll still be maintaining 1960s COBOL systems though!


I haven't looked at COBOL in 20+ years, but back then, there were no modern languages that had the key features for dealing with money
the way COBOL does. None of the OO languages have a Money data type, none do arithmetic nearly as cleanly as Grace Hopper's invention.

Not criticising COBOL at all, just recognising that we have a lot of software already that has been quietly doing its thing for 30 or 40 years, and with the sheer volume of software being created these days, I wonder who's ever going to have time to re-write it all?
Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar
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Posts: 1076
    
  10

Jesper de Jong wrote:
Pat Farrell wrote:None of the OO languages have a Money data type, ...

You can make your own Money data type or use an existing library.

Also, you have a JSR in progress for Money and Currency. So, we may have an Money/Currency API soon as part of JDK.


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chris webster
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Joined: Mar 01, 2009
Posts: 1621
    
  13

Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar wrote:So, we may have an Money/Currency API soon as part of JDK.

Just in time for Java's 20th birthday!
Jesper de Jong
Java Cowboy
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Joined: Aug 16, 2005
Posts: 14074
    
  16

Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar wrote:Also, you have a JSR in progress for Money and Currency. So, we may have an Money/Currency API soon as part of JDK.

Note that the person who proposed that JSR is Stephen Colebourne - the author of Joda Time and Joda Money, where my link points to. So if that JSR is implemented in some future version of Java, it will most likely look a lot like Joda Money.
Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar
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Joined: Oct 16, 2003
Posts: 1076
    
  10

chris webster wrote:
Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar wrote:So, we may have an Money/Currency API soon as part of JDK.

Just in time for Java's 20th birthday!

oh yeah

Jesper de Jong wrote:
Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar wrote:Also, you have a JSR in progress for Money and Currency. So, we may have an Money/Currency API soon as part of JDK.

Note that the person who proposed that JSR is Stephen Colebourne - the author of Joda Time and Joda Money, where my link points to. So if that JSR is implemented in some future version of Java, it will most likely look a lot like Joda Money.

I see. I found out that the JSR was taking a similar approach to Joda Money but I was unaware that it was the same person who actually proposed the JSR.
Wendy Gibbons
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Joined: Oct 21, 2008
Posts: 1107

Pat Farrell wrote:Consider the automobile. In 1912, the self starter was brand new and available only on the most expensive brands.

In the 1960s, when I was a teenager, you had to learn about how a car worked because the cars that teenagers drove were really bad cars that broke down all the time. You had to fix them to keep them running.

I just got a new car, I had the old one for 7 years. I never opened the hood of it. I never changed a tire. I don't think I ever even checked the tire pressure. I took it to the dealer every 6,000 miles for oil changes, and did nothing else.

In the 60s, there were lots of people earning a living fixing cars. Now, not so much. Cars are so much more reliable (in addition to making less pollution and using less fuel) that professionals from the 60s won't recognize the business.

Sure, in 100 years, there will be programmers, but you can bet a lot of money that they won't be using Java.

I remember hearing a quote from the 20s saying "there will be a limited number of cars as not everybody is able to maintain their own car" the person not even thinking about people making a career from looking after other peoples cars. and the thing about telephones, as everyone would need to work on the exchanges.

the trouble is, as computers get bigger and faster people keep wanting them to do more and more complicated things, the solutions to ease our lives today (think forms generators) are just not able to handle all the little "oh yes but i want it to do xyz" which the generator is just not designed to do. Not to mention the completely new things people think up.
Frank Silbermann
Ranch Hand

Joined: Jun 06, 2002
Posts: 1386
Ranganathan Kaliyur Mannar wrote:
Jesper de Jong wrote:
Pat Farrell wrote:None of the OO languages have a Money data type, ...

You can make your own Money data type or use an existing library.

Also, you have a JSR in progress for Money and Currency. So, we may have an Money/Currency API soon as part of JDK.
Do you think maybe it will be built using JNI on top of COBOL code? Or will they go way being mere fixed-decimal to handle different currencies?
 
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