Depressing news or a clueless author?

http://www.manning.com/keller/index.html

Certainly IT spending trends have evolved, but I don't think there are any silver bullets on the horizon. Certainly not those mentioned in the book's summary. Users always have a way of asking for more than they asked for last year

I couldn't think of a less surprising and wrong-headed conclusion. I'd be interested in reading it just to see what he could possibly be thinking.

Originally posted by Michael Ernest:
I couldn't think of a less surprising and wrong-headed conclusion. I'd be interested in reading it just to see what he could possibly be thinking.

That was my impression, too. But I guess if you want to sell books there is nothing like being controversial.

Well, the guy was a gartner analyst, so I wouldn't give him too much credit. On the other hand, it's quite possible that he is a clever guy with an interesting message despite that background.

while the trends he listied do decrease it spending they operate at the micro levle not macro as the author implies..
I think the author flunked out of basic economics in college..

I have been programming for 25 years and management at whatever company has been trying to get rid of my job since day 1--without success to this point. There have been a number of sure-fire approaches to get rid of programmer jobs that did not pan out:
1) 4th generation languages.
2) The new methodology du jour.
3) Distributed systems getting rid of mainframes by 1995.
4) OO techniques and reusability dramatically reducing development hours.
5) Re-engineering.
6) Capability maturity model.
7) User-driven query and reporting tools.
8) Code generators--pacbase, telon.
9) Component assembly rather than coding.
10) Outsourcing to vendors in US.
11) ISO certification.
12) Malcolm Baldridge award.
13) Enterprise wide data dictionary.
14) Making those programmers more business-like rather than artistes!
15) Designing and building systems in the same manner as buildings are architected and constructed (that may have been localized to the one fortune 50company I was in).

Maybe outsourcing to third world countries will finally do it. I am getting tired of programming and would look for a job where I can work with my hands on something real and move around a bit--carpenter, electrician, plumber, auto mechanic, heavy equipment operator--hard to send those jobs to india.
Anyway, consultants only get paid to say something new and there is no penalty for being wrong. The guys who wrote Search for Excellence admitted they fabricated data in the book, but they still get called by the media to offer opinions. Gartner--interesting what their track record would be if someone tabulated predictions and the actual outcomes.
[ January 19, 2004: Message edited by: Mark Knutson ]