Originally posted by Rob Aught:
My concern is that we may see an "experience gap" in the coming years as a result.[/QB]
-- <br />4 8 15 16 23 42
The secret of how to be miserable is to constantly expect things are going to happen the way that they are "supposed" to happen.
You can have faith, which carries the understanding that you may be disappointed. Then there's being a willfully-blind idiot, which virtually guarantees it.
Originally posted by Tim Holloway:
No one really knows. Not enough information is being captured, when it is, it doesn't all get brough to one place, and most of the analysts are spinning it anyway.
Anyway, IT offshoring's the myopic view. There's nothing magic about IT other than it being a little cheaper to uproot and move overseas. As I've said before, any job that doesn't require you to physically touch your customers is at risk. And some of those may end up becoming self-service and/or automated. I hate to sound so dour, but that's been the trend, and until the trend reverses, that's how I'll be. Someday we may place more of a premium on personal service and bespoke products than cheap and mass-produced, but for now, Wal-Mart wins hands down.
BTW, I almost never deal with my bank in person (only via web and ATMs), but when I go to the grocery store, I expect to have someone at the register to do the checkout. Or I go to a store that does.
History never repeats itself exactly, but it may be instructive to review what happened in manufacturing. Everyone rushed to offshore manufacturing. Some things didn't work. Some of the manufacturing work came back. Management reviewed what went wrong. Then they sent the work offshore again. Some of this also didn't work and came back. Repeated until everything's either offshored or proven non-offshorable (at least in the sense that there's no economic advantage to offshore it).
IT is a strange business. It's supposed to be all mechanical and deterministic, but in fact, all attempts to reduce software development to a rote process have failed. Considering that so much software is pretty horribly rendered anyway, it remains to be seen if if can be sent elsewhere without straining the end user's tolerance to the breaking point.
In tha case of commodity software, perhaps so. But the real appeal of software for many users is its ability to be tailored to their wants and needs, and a certain amount of direct interaction is important to that process.
So only time will truly tell. All I know is I spent over 2 years out of work and am not considered atypical. And I'm very glad I'm not job hunting at the moment, not matter how strong they tell me the economy is. Because around here, I don't see a whole lot of options.
The secret of how to be miserable is to constantly expect things are going to happen the way that they are "supposed" to happen.
You can have faith, which carries the understanding that you may be disappointed. Then there's being a willfully-blind idiot, which virtually guarantees it.
The secret of how to be miserable is to constantly expect things are going to happen the way that they are "supposed" to happen.
You can have faith, which carries the understanding that you may be disappointed. Then there's being a willfully-blind idiot, which virtually guarantees it.
Le Cafe Mouse - Helen's musings on the web - Java Skills and Thrills
"God who creates and is nature is very difficult to understand, but he is not arbitrary or malicious." OR "God does not play dice." - Einstein
Due to a combination of H-1B, L-1 and offshoring, the American software developer will become
extinct within the next few years. The percentage of new programmer jobs going to H-1Bs and L-1s
has shown a sharp upward trend in recent years. The Commerce Dept. says 28% of the programmer
jobs during 1996-1998 went to H-1Bs;19 the Federal Reserve Bank gave a 50% figure for 1999;20 and
my very rough calculations, based on an attempt to piece together different types of data, suggest a
figure as high as 90% for 2001. Jon Piot, COO of the Impact Innovations Group even estimates a
precise date at which the �extinction� of the American programmer will occur�2006.21 Given the
flurry of current activity in which many American programmers are being laid off and replaced by
H-1Bs/L-1s, that date may need to be revised to an earlier one.
Originally posted by Rob Aught:
You know, I keep hearing that programmers are being laid off in favor of H-1B's and L-1's, but I've never actually seen it. Furthermore, I'm seeing a reverse trend in off-shoring in Dallas. So I just don't get the doom and gloom.
We're still a ways off from seeing a real recovery in the tech sector, but I doubt that technology jobs are going to disappear in this country.
However, they will never be like the dotcom days again because that was not sustainable. Everyone keeps waiting for this golden age to take hold again, but it's just not going to.
The secret of how to be miserable is to constantly expect things are going to happen the way that they are "supposed" to happen.
You can have faith, which carries the understanding that you may be disappointed. Then there's being a willfully-blind idiot, which virtually guarantees it.
Kishore
SCJP, blog
MH
Originally posted by Arjun Shastry:
Actually some offshore IT projects succeed some fail.Failed projects don't make any news in media.
Kishore
SCJP, blog
MH
42
Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
The first companies are even beginning to reverse their offshoring and reestablishing IT departments at home but they're being cautious about it.
Le Cafe Mouse - Helen's musings on the web - Java Skills and Thrills
"God who creates and is nature is very difficult to understand, but he is not arbitrary or malicious." OR "God does not play dice." - Einstein
MH
Le Cafe Mouse - Helen's musings on the web - Java Skills and Thrills
"God who creates and is nature is very difficult to understand, but he is not arbitrary or malicious." OR "God does not play dice." - Einstein
Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
The offshoring hype is ending as ever more companies are feeling the pain of massive failure of offshored projects (far higher percentages than previous local run projects) combined with cost that's higher than expected (because of overly optimistic estimates) of offshoring projects.
The first companies are even beginning to reverse their offshoring and reestablishing IT departments at home but they're being cautious about it.
And who's to blame them? They've just weathered a massive failure in their offshoring advantage as well as a sliding economy (which is just beginning to look better again but where will it go from here?) at the same time.
So they're expanding slowly while still companies that haven't been burned yet fall over each other to get on the offshoring bandwagon and close IT shops.
The net effect is that at current there is little or no growth in the number of IT jobs (though the massive decline seems to have stopped or slowed down considerably) while there still is a (declining) influx of new people into the market who started their training at the height of the boom around 1999-2000.
As a result the number of people seeking jobs is increasing while the number of jobs is not, leading to falling compensation and companies being able to once again make whatever demands they want on prospective employees who are desperate to get a job in their chosen field before their unemployment benefits run out and they'll have to take up menial labour leading to a quick loss of any chance at all to get back to a decent paying job.
So we're back in the situation of the mid 1990s with impossible demands (10 years experience with developing EJBs on Windows 2000 anyone?) which can be leveraged by recruiters to give prospects lower compensation in "exchange" for being content to live with someone who doesn't quite meet their demands.
Kishore
SCJP, blog
Originally posted by Kishore Dandu:
your first paragraph is a complete bogus.
Don't give people false information.
-- <br />4 8 15 16 23 42
The secret of how to be miserable is to constantly expect things are going to happen the way that they are "supposed" to happen.
You can have faith, which carries the understanding that you may be disappointed. Then there's being a willfully-blind idiot, which virtually guarantees it.
Originally posted by Rob Aught:
Part of the problem is that there is this myth that Indian developers all walk on water and work for peanuts. At least this is how the business tends to see them. Now, the folks I have worked with in the US have GENERALLY been pretty bright and so polite its embarrassing in comparison to my barbarian American behavior. However, as far as the overseas folks go, I haven't seen anything that really differentiates them from US developers. Worse? Not really. Better? No evidence of that yet. About the same? Definitely. Of course, part of this myth is self-serving, its used as justification by the bean counters to use offshore resources instead of domestic IT staff. I can almost hear them meeting now "In India, everyone has a double genius level IQ, are 7 feet tall, can communicate telepathically, and will work for 50 cents a year!" I swear its like something out of a Dilbert cartoon. Now that businesses are dissatisfied with offshore results, its as though they are penalizing their offshore counterparts for revealing themselves as mere mortals. Its worth noting that I've never seen anyone from India try to sell themselves this way, but I certainly get that impression from the business.
-- <br />4 8 15 16 23 42
Originally posted by Jesse Torres:
Hello Kishore,
Are you in US?
Thanks,
Kishore
SCJP, blog
Originally posted by Kishore Dandu:
and I love to watch Americas team in Action).
-- <br />4 8 15 16 23 42
Originally posted by Kishore Dandu:
your first paragraph is a complete bogus.
Don't give people false information.
42
Originally posted by Helen Thomas:
"Political" may be too strong a word. I meant opening up new markets, even indirectly. For e.g. India and China would be creating goods and services for less developed countries. Other investments would be coming from developed countries. (Or currently under redevelopment countries).
42
MH
Le Cafe Mouse - Helen's musings on the web - Java Skills and Thrills
"God who creates and is nature is very difficult to understand, but he is not arbitrary or malicious." OR "God does not play dice." - Einstein
MH
Le Cafe Mouse - Helen's musings on the web - Java Skills and Thrills
"God who creates and is nature is very difficult to understand, but he is not arbitrary or malicious." OR "God does not play dice." - Einstein
Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
it's not, at least in my experience.
I've been involved in several offshoring projects and that was the outcome in all of them.
You may not like it if your countrymen are discovered to be what they really are rather than the miracle workers they're portrayed to be sometimes but that's the simple reality of truth.
Kishore
SCJP, blog
Originally posted by Homer Phillips:
On-shore or off-shore I'll bet a non-trivial fraction of all big OO projects fail.
The secret of how to be miserable is to constantly expect things are going to happen the way that they are "supposed" to happen.
You can have faith, which carries the understanding that you may be disappointed. Then there's being a willfully-blind idiot, which virtually guarantees it.
Originally posted by Kishore Dandu:
BTW I am aware of your antagonism towards Indians. But I don't give a da..
42
Originally posted by Jeroen Wenting:
I've nothing against Indians in general. Some of the finest minds I've worked with over the years were Indians and they were very sociable people.
What I do mind is Indians who come here basically asking "I want to take your job away, how do I go about it" and then are offended when people are less than helpful to them.
It's even worse when they refuse to word their questions in proper English. English isn't my native tongue either but I made the effort to become pretty fluent in it in order to communicate with foreigners. Many Indians I see online seem less inclined to make that effort yet get offended when their pidgin isn't understood or ignored.
Kishore
SCJP, blog
Le Cafe Mouse - Helen's musings on the web - Java Skills and Thrills
"God who creates and is nature is very difficult to understand, but he is not arbitrary or malicious." OR "God does not play dice." - Einstein
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