Veriable, certifiable GOOD NEWS or ?

[frank davis]

OK, where's the flaw, is this good news or what?
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-3513_22-5406243.html

[Jeroen Wenting]

"computer related design and services" can mean just about anything, including the people at Gateway and Dell warehouses who unpack the shipping crates from China and address them to their final customers.
They're in "computer related services" industry but I doubt it's what we would want to do...

[Axel Janssen]

I have a job, but:
@Jeroen: we probably agree that postings in job sites like jobpilot.de or meinestadt.de are no reliable indicator, but at least there is a clear increase of java related job offers over the last 6 month which got stronger in last month.
At least it is something in a general job market which goes from could_it_be_any_worse? to yes_it_can!
How about situation in precious neighbour country NL?

Axel
[ October 18, 2004: Message edited by: Axel Janssen ]

[peter wooster]

Originally posted by Axel Janssen:
I have a job, but:
@Jeroen: we probably agree that postings in job sites like jobpilot.de or meinestadt.de are no reliable indicator, but at least there is a clear increase of java related job offers over the last 6 month which got stronger in last month.
At least it is something in a general job market which goes from could_it_be_any_worse? to yes_it_can!
How about situation in precious neighbour country NL?

Axel

[ October 18, 2004: Message edited by: Axel Janssen

One of the enduring aspects of any market is that the common view of the market tends to lag behind the reality.

When a market has risen to its peak and is due for a serious correction everyone, especially the press is saying "its got nowhere to go but up!" "Gold will hit $1000 an ounce" was a common quote just before the precious metals crash in 1980. Similarly there were lots of people predicting internet enabled fridges, etc in the last days of the internet bubble. In real estate in the late '80s, everyone was saying "if you don't buy now, you'll never be able to afford a house", I bought in '94 for 65% of the '89 price.

Similarly after a crash the doom and gloom prevails long after the market has actually started to recover. The claims that it will never recover and that you should look elsewhere are a sign the recovery is already in progess.

These effects are probably partly the result of self interest on the part of many who stand to benefit from the misleading impression. At present many HR managers are hoping to get some good staff cheap, before those potential hires catch on that the market is improving.

[Tim Holloway]

Originally posted by Jesse Torres:
Some much for good news.

Just when you thought that things were finally improving.

FWIW, I think they're mainly referring to manufacturing. OTOH, I read this morning that CAP Gemini just handed about 60 software people their walking papers in Houston with more planned in a few months.

For me, the only metric that really counts is local demand, and the local newspaper has taken to slipping "restaurant help wanted" ads into the computer jobs column. Once would have been an accident, but different restaurants and different weeks and I begin to wonder...

My wife couldn't believe one she showed me last night. It was something like "familiarity with janitoral equipment and supplies, computer experience required".

I'm not joking.
[ October 18, 2004: Message edited by: Tim Holloway ]

[Jeroen Wenting]

The situation here is not as bad as it was, at least the massive layoffs we had in 2002/2003 are history.
But noone seems to be hiring much. I get emails still from some jobsites from when I was looking for a job myself last year. I signed up for only Java related offers. I now actually get LESS of those than a year ago.
I also get a paper with job ads for university grads. In 2001 about 30-50% of those were in software development (with half of those mentioning Java), at the moment weeks go by without a single offer in IT (except the occasional manager or HR person). As this is a leading publication (some large companies demand that ALL job openings are posted there for example) it should be indicative of the general trend.

But at the same time the company I work has been looking for a mid-range (few years experience) Java programmer for months now, and only just filled a vacancy for a senior C programmer after looking for about 3 months for that.
So while vacancies are down very sharply, those that do exist seem harder to fill.
Whether this is because most openings are for senior jobs and most people out of work are juniors or because those out of work have given up looking for a job in IT I can't tell, I've no data on that.

Hopefully the government budget plans will improve things (there's talk of a tax relieve for companies) but I doubt it as those same plans will reduce the standard of living for all citizens and thus reduce buying power unless salaries start to rise again sharply (something that's highly unlikely in the current bleak economic climate here).

[Warren Dew]

Tim Holloway:

the local newspaper has taken to slipping "restaurant help wanted" ads into the computer jobs column.

It's those internet enabled fridges!

[Tim Holloway]

Yes, I know it's mostly campaign slop, but apparently the flu vaccine debacle has caused a few politicians to stand up and make noises about the dangers of offshoring the production of strategic assets. Even friendly countries can throw a spanner in the works, we now see. Up until now, the only "strategic asset" anyone was worried about was steel.

Still waiting to see if anyone gets a clue about what happens to an "Information Economy" dependent on foreign resources.

[Jeroen Wenting]

I wasn't referring to the US but to the Netherlands (and indeed most of Europe seems in a similar state).

[Axel Janssen]

in Germany the postings went up a bit lately (from very low levels).
Also I know from press and friends that freelancers who offer their services for lower rates than company experienced a serious rise in demand (from very low levels also).
I have my problem that new economic culture getting stronger where everybody is his own company. Like to have co-workers.
[ October 20, 2004: Message edited by: Axel Janssen ]

[Jesse Torres]

Generally speaking, the job report numbers are quite confusing. Some point to a rise in hiring, while other job reports still point to a bleak picture. That is where I am confused.

[Tim Holloway]

Originally posted by Jesse Torres:
Generally speaking, the job report numbers are quite confusing. Some point to a rise in hiring, while other job reports still point to a bleak picture. That is where I am confused.

When both hiring and firing are up, that's a churning market. My impression is that a lot of employers held back on layoffs over the Summer for one reason or another and now they're letting people go. At the same time, pent-up demand - and the occasional realization that offshoring isn't a silver bullet after all - have led to increases in hiring as well.

So far, it appears from here that the on-shore hiring rates are lower than the on-shore layoff rates, but that's no doubt in part to the fact that confidence in the economy is fairly low. It's hard to rush out and buy when you're uncertain whether you'll be able to keep making payments 6 months down the road.

OTOH, just like bubbles can't last, neither can busts. Since a large chunk of economics rests less on tangibles than on expectations, those who think the downturn has lasted long enough are pushing to ramp back up. All they need is the co-operation of the consumers.

[Jesse Torres]

Originally posted by Tim Holloway:




OTOH, just like bubbles can't last, neither can busts. Since a large chunk of economics rests less on tangibles than on expectations, those who think the downturn has lasted long enough are pushing to ramp back up. All they need is the co-operation of the consumers.

Please elaborate on, "all they need is the co-operation of the consumers."

[Jeroen Wenting]

simply put: if noone is buying there's no use producing.
This works its way up the chain so low consumer confidence will mean no orders for companies producing factory equipment, trucks, logistical software, process automation systems, etc. etc.

As those sectors (where the majority of consumers make their income...) stall, consumers have less to spend and loose even more confidence in the economy meaning they buy even less thereby perpetuating the effect.

OTOH if consumers buy more in time their employers will have more orders and thus more money to spend on salaries (leading to higher salaries and more jobs).

[Jesse Torres]

What are the latest job numbers in the IT sector? I haven't heard anything in quite some time.