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Originally posted by Bhau Mhatre:
[b]E.g. Out of 100 balls in a box (1 red, 99 blue), the probablity of picking up a red ball randomly is 1/100.
If you repeat this process 400 times, the probability does not increase to 4.
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Mumbai cha Bhau
Originally posted by Bhau Mhatre:
Vikrama Sanjeeva Suppose probability of mistake by P1 in doing task T1 is "X".
Jayesh Lalwani Mistakes M1 = 400*X
Hmm, probability does not increase with repetition, does it?
E.g. Out of 100 balls in a box (1 red, 99 blue), the probablity of picking up a red ball randomly is 1/100.
If you repeat this process 400 times, the probability does not increase to 4.
Similarly, if you consider each individual "doing of the task" separately, then each time the probability of mistake is X. This will never change.
And the probability of NOT making a mistake = (1X)
Repeating 400 times, the probability of 'always making' a mistake is (X)*(X)*(X)...400 times
Repeating 400 times, the probability of 'always not making' a mistake is (1X)*(1X)*(1X)...400 times
if you keep picking a ball and putting it back, you will get the red ball 4 times.
There are only two hard things in computer science: cache invalidation, naming things, and offbyone errors
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Originally posted by fred rosenberger:
not true. or, not neccesarily true. as the number of selection (with replace) approaches infinity, the percent of reds selected approaches 1%. that does not mean that in 400 trials, i will get 4 reds every time.
i know this is what you meant, but i feel it's important to clarify.
What you have shown (and i like your approach) is the theoretical number of mistakes made each case, and used that to determine which is better. this is slightly different than calculating the probability of mistakes in each case, and picking the lesser.
your math is MUCH easier. Bravo!!!
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