posted 21 years ago
1. A low monthly payment (about $57/month) with high deductible ($2500/yr) OR
2. A higher monthly payment (about $97/month) with low deductible ($250/year)
Well, let's do the math. One assumption is missing. What's the probability that your medical bill will be X amount of dollars for the next 6 months?
First, let's assume that there is a 10% chance that it will be $1,000 for the next 6 months.
Then your expected pay under options (1) and (2) will be
Pay1 = (57*6)*0.9 + (57*6 + 1000)*0.1 = $442
Pay2 = (97*6)*0.9 + (97*6 + 250)*0.1 = $607
From here, it follows that option (1) is better.
Now, let's reverse the probability and say that there is a 90% chance that your medical bill will be $1,000 for the next 6 months.
Then your expected pay under options (1) and (2) will be
Pay1 = (57*6)*0.1 + (57*6 + 1000)*0.9 = $1242
Pay2 = (97*6)*0.1 + (97*6 + 250)*0.9 = $807
From here, it follows that option (2) is better.