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Will Android be the Linux of the mobile world?

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First, it seems like phones will become more standardized just like computer hardware. Dell, IBM, HP, and even Apple make more or less the same computer hardware. Do you think phones will also go that route?

If so, will there be a Windows-like operating system, from Symbian and then the renegade more open operating systems like Android (comparative to Linux) and iPhone (Mac OS X)?

I know this is a big unknown, but is looking like software will soon be the main difference between phones. What do you think?

If my suspicions are true, then it seems like financially it makes sense that we should all try to code for the Symbian platform, when they will allow us to.

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Well, obviously everyone will convert to Android and There Will Be Only One.

Seriously though, I think we're stuck with fragmentation for many years to come. Some would say that's a good thing, with competition encouraging innovation, and non-homogeneity discouraging security threats.

I do note that all the recent platforms seem to be crystallizing around Linux at their core, including Android. SQLite and OpenGL are available on more than one. HTML/Javascript is available on more than one. Flash and JavaFX are kind of wildcards right now but I have my doubts they will become standard. ARM is standard right now but Intel is investing a lot of money to change that.

Meanwhile, we have to write apps for our users right now, so we learn as much as we can and use what's available now.
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