Guillermo Ishi wrote:Here was my original reasoning.
You pick a door -- odds are 1/3 you're right
Correct. The odds that you picked the right door is one out of three. And the odds that the prize is in one of the other two doors is two out of three. Also, only one of the other two doors contain the prize.
Guillermo Ishi wrote:
Goat is revealed and door is thrown out
The odds you have the right door are now 1/2 -- two possibilities, one winner. Thus nothing to be gained by switching doors.
Does that fix you and make it counterintuitive?
Incorrect. You did not choose the door that is thrown out. It was chosen by the show, that know which is the prize and which is not the prize. So, the odds does not change. The show simply showed you the door, out of the two that you did not pick, that was not the prize.
Henry