I just had James Weaver out to speak at the Boulder Java Users Group this past week. (You should see him if you get a chance -- he did a great job.)
I have zero hands-on with JavaFX, and have seen exactly two presentations on the material, so please consider the source. (Grin)
My take on JavaFX is that it has reasonably Groovy-like syntactically, but the push seems to be more for writing Swing-like rich GUIs. Groovy offers a SwingBuilder, but it is definitely more of a general purpose language -- not aimed or dedicated at GUI dev like JavaFX. I'd compare it more to Flash/ActionScript than Groovy directly.
I'm rather concerned that Sun's pushing JRuby
I wouldn't say that Sun is "pushing JRuby" so much as they are pushing dynamic languages on the JVM. JRuby gets a lot of buzz here in the states for two reasons --
1. Sun wants to make darn sure that everyone being even slightly tempted away from the JVM by Ruby's siren song has a good reason to stay. (Groovy doesn't so much draw people away from the JVM due to its strong synergy with Java.)
2. Charles Oliver Nutter and Thomas Enebo (the two JRuby leads that Sun hired) are based out of the US. The project lead for Groovy (Guillaume Laforge) is based out of Paris, and the project lead for Grails (Graeme Rocher) is based out of the UK. The contributors on these projects are based out of Germany, Romania, Australia, and, yes the US, too. Sun has contributed big iron hardware to the Groovy project for heavy load testing, and the Groovy DevCons are regularly held in Sun's Paris office.
Every success for JRuby, Jython, JavaFX is a success for Groovy as well -- rising tides raise all ships (where ships == dynamic languages on the JVM...)